Although election night gave the win to a Republican, there are between 70,000 and 90,000 absentee and provisional ballots yet to be counted in Fresno County and 65,000 in Kern County. In those areas, the incumbent Jim Costa leads by more than 60% of the vote. In less populous Kings County, where the challenger got 70% of the vote, only 500 provisional ballots remain to be counted. Even a Republican strategist has concluded that Costa will win.
The Fresno BEE has the story today:
Andy Vidak, a little-known Hanford cherry farmer who rode a wave of voter discontent and a surge of out-of-town money, stood poised Wednesday to topple veteran Democrat Jim Costa in the 20th Congressional District. He was ahead by 1,823 votes, with 100% of precincts reporting.
But a close look at the electoral mathematics reveals bad news for Vidak. Though more than 63,000 votes have been tallied, tens of thousands of absentee and provisional ballots remain to be counted. And most come from parts of the district where Costa did well.
A final tally may take weeks. But even some GOP observers said a Vidak victory is unlikely. Among them was Republican strategist Tal Cloud, who broke down the numbers in an e-mail to local party members. His conclusion: Costa wins by 1,999 votes. "I hope I am wrong," Cloud added.
...
The 20th District covers around 25% of Fresno County, 20% of Kern and all of Kings County. Using those percentages -- for instance, giving Costa 60% of 25% of the outstanding ballots in Fresno County -- Costa would surpass Vidak by around 6 percentage points. In raw numbers, that would be more than 5,000 votes, if current voting trends continue.
Link
Costa's campaign had strong support from unions and like the rest of California's representatives, Costa voted for health insurance reform. Costa has issued this statement: "The results of the election continue to come in. There are thousands of votes to be counted. Every vote must be accounted for and we will continue to follow the returns. Obviously, we're still hoping for the best."