"Nothing that a candidate has said or done during a campaign, when the public discounts everything as political, has changed his prospects at the polls. Debates, advertising, television appearances, news coverage, and campaign strategies—the usual grist for the punditry mills—count for virtually nothing on Election Day," -Allan Lichtman
That's a recent quote from Allan Lichtman, American University Professor and co-creator (with Keilis-Bork) of an algorithm (and book author) that has correctly predicted the outcome of recent Presidential elections. He is now, 28 months out, predicting with near certainty a victory for President Obama's 2012 election bid.
Unsurprisingly, I am not as sanguine but remain cautiously confident, follow me below the fold to see why...
The prediction algorithm is simple, there are thirteen key dimensions of the electorally relevant issues and atmosphere that contirbute to an incumbent presidential candidates electoral success. If six or more of the statements are false the incumbent candidate will lose. This algorithm is based on electoral data since 1860 and used pattern recognition methods to derive the 13 keys. Below is Lichtman's current assignment of TRUE/FALSE for the keys and my analysis.
KEY 1 Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
Current status: FALSE
Enterik: It's a fact, the midterm election is over and after the last midterm election (110th Congress, 2006) the Democratic Party held 236 seats and after 2008 (111th Congress) the Democrats held 257 seats and 189 seats in 2010 (112th Congress). The upside is that if Obama is re-elected this is a good position to make gains from in the 2014 midterm elections and thus likely to establish the first TRUE key for the Democratic candidate in 2016.
KEY 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
Current status: TRUE
Enterik: With knowledge of the success of this algorithm, only a fool ignorant of history would promote a primary challenge of Obama while he is a sitting President. For the 2016 election this key will likely be FALSE unless we can somehow agree that Hillary Clinton is the Democratic candidate without another battle royale
KEY 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
Current status: TRUE
Enterik: For the 2016 election this key will be FALSE by term limits as the Democratic candidate will necessarily not be the President.
KEY 4 (Third party): There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
Current status: TRUE
Enterik: I suspect the Democrats and progressives are, by and large, over this flirtation with disaster. The only question that remains is whether a Tea Bagger of note will rise up. My prediction for 2012 is that it seems unlikely. I have no guess about 2016.
KEY 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Current status: TRUE
Enterik: I'm not so sure about Lichtman's call on this one. Yes the US has, according to economists, emerged from a formal recession, but, the "recovery" has pretty much been a jobless one. So I'm not sure if past performance is an indicator of future success for this particular key, especially if the new Republican majority in the House spikes the economy with the expected inanities. I am putting this one into a flux category called "MAYBE".
KEY 6 (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Current status: FALSE
Enterik: I don't know what to say about this, things were bad then and everyone knew who was a the helm, whose decisions drove the economy into the ground. But the 2010 midterm election might suggest a significant fraction of the electorate has forgotten or just don't care. Either way, it looks like Obama won't be getting any anti-Bush prorating in this regard, so it will be a straight up actuarial decision. So by the numbers the Bush years (200-2008) experienced 2.46% GDP growth. Thusfar, the Obama years (2009-2010) have realized -0.23% growth and will have to average 5.15% over the next two years to match the average of the previous two terms. Is that a likely scenario? I hope so. The silver lining, if growth does not match the Bush years during Obama's second term, should he be reelected, it will make it somewhat easier for Clinton to get reelected in 2016 (but not 2012).
KEY 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
Current status: TRUE
Enterik: Well, we aren't fighting in Iraq and we do have some form of healthcare reform, both of which major changes in national policy. I can't help but think that the Republicans know about the keys and are targeting healthcare reform for this very reason, to deny the Democratic candidate one of his keys? I hope this stays true and so should anyone who doesn't like Republican "leadership".
KEY 8 (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Current status: TRUE
Enterik: Luckily, I don't think the antics of Tea Baggers count as social unrest in the way that riots and civil rights demonstrations counted. Nor do I think the sporadic unhinging of conservatarian jingos counts. Does anyone smell anything coming down the pike?
KEY 9 (Scandal): The administration is untainted by major scandal.
Current status: TRUE
Enterik: It's hard to imagine the squeaky clean Obama Administration from having a scandal, but maybe two years of Republican hearings will dig something up that they can blow out of proportion.
KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): The administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Current status: TRUE
Enterik: Well, we aren't fighting in Iraq and things in Afghanistan aren't exploding all over the news. So that's one positive and one status quo. Certainly not the entanglement free desire of many but obstensibly meeting the key criteria
KEY 11 (Foreign/military success): The administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Current status: FALSE
Enterik: Well, we aren't fighting in Iraq but Lichtmann doesn't see that as a major success and to be honest, while I appreciate the trend, it doesn't feel like Victory of Japan day does it?
KEY 12 (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Current status: FALSE
Enterik: I did a double take when I read this one, because the election commentary made it seem otherwise, with even conservatarian commentators grudging how "articulate" he is. I am prone to disagree with Lichtman and put this in the MAYBE category I have created. Now for 2016, is Clinton considered charismatic?
KEY 13 (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Current status: TRUE
Enterik: What does Lichtmann know that I don't know? Do Republicans always put up a charismatic candidate? Ronald reagan. That should pretty much end that train of thought. So again, let's call it a MAYBE
Now if you have been keeping track, Lichtman's tally has 4 FALSE points (1,6,11,12). You'll notice that Obama is not regarded as charismatic in his analysis (key 12). The remaining 9 keys are TRUE (2,3,4,5,7,8,9,10,13). Lichtman believes it is almost a certainty that Obama will be reelected.
I agree with Lichtman on keys 1 (Party Mandate), 6 (Long-term Economy), 11 (Foreign/Military Success). However, I am uncertain whether Obama is viewed as charismatic (key 12) or whether the Republicans can scape up a charismatic contender (key 13). I think keys 3 (incumbency), 8 (social unrest) and 9 (scandal) are likely to remain TRUE. So far, that's 3 FALSE, 2 MAYBE, 3 TRUE.
what about the rest? I'll touch on the keys in order of likelyhood of remaining true but could possibly change.
10 (Foreign/Military failure) seems unlikely at this point
4 (Third Party) does anyone sense this brewing? I voted for Nader, twice and I haven't heard anything yet.
2 (Contest) Is anyone seriously considering a challenge to President Obama?
7 (Policy Change) What happens if it is repealed?
5 (Short term economy) Are we reall out of the recession? Formally, yes. In the minds of the electorate? No.
So let's give Obama keys 10,4,2 and give the Republicans key 5, and put key 7 as a maybe. That makes my tally 4 FALSE, 3 MAYBE, 6 TRUE. To me this means the GOP needs 2 out of the 3 MAYBEs.
If the Republicans kill Healthcare and nominate a charismatic candidate, Obama will lose, even if he is charismatic.
So knowing this, what landmark piece of legislation should the Democrats of the House, Senate and White House defend with their last breath?