In all the sound and fury over the repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell, you might think that the issue of marriage equality has been put on the backburner. But make no mistake: important events have taken place and new battles are about to begin in the fight for the fundamental right to marry. Nationally and internationally the struggle continues as it likely will for a good part of the next two decades.
The biggest political battles this next year in the United States will be fought in Rhode Island -- to pass marriage equality, in New York -- to just bring the same to a vote in the State Senate, and in New Hampshire -- to prevent marriage equality from being undone as happened in California.
We know where NOM (the National Organization for Marriage) will be -- right on the front lines doing everything they possibly can to defeat marriage equality. The question is "Where will national LGBT organizations be?" Will they be doing their damnedest to counteract NOM, or will they be sitting on the sidelines as they did in Iowa in this election, letting NOM spew its bigotry and hate without any effective response? Will they be having internecine food fights over who was responsible for the failure to get DADT repealed (if it comes to that) and ENDA passed or will they be trying to defeat NOM on new battlegrounds?
Here's the latest developments in and prospects (for and against) marriage equality:
National News:
In Hawaii, look for an 'everything but marriage' civil unions bill to be passed; or at least cross your fingers that one will. The magic combination is a pro-LGBT soon-to-be new governor coupled with Democratic majorities in both Houses of the legislature (they passed such a bill last year, only to have it vetoed by the Republican governor) coupled with favorable committee assignments in the Senate. Equality Hawaii says 30 of 51 representatives and at least 19 of 25 Senators support civil unions. Committee assignments in the Senate put three pro-civil-union legislators on the Judiciary and Labor Committee vs. two who are opposed; the legislation would have to move through that committee to get a floor vote.
In Illinois, the current and future governor, Pat Quinn, has said that he wants to move quickly, possibly within weeks, to have the Legislature pass a civil unions bill. It's not yet clear whether there are sufficient votes in the Illinois House, despite being controlled by Democrats. The exact scope of the legislation is also not clear; while it provides a number of rights including survivorship, adoptions, insurance, and the right to decide on medical treatment, it is not an 'everything but marriage' bill.
In Iowa, the current and future Senate Majority Leader, Mike Gronstal, has once again stated that he will attempt to block any attempt to start the process going to have Iowans vote on a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage. But with a bare majority in the Senate (26-24), and with the House now controlled by Republicans, it is unclear whether he can hold back a few conservative Democrats from voting for a referendum. The earliest such a vote of the people could take place would be 2014.
As mentioned in the introduction three Iowa Supreme Court judges were voted out of their jobs because of their equal marriage rights ruling a year and a half ago. Republicans have threatened to make sure that the other four are voted out in the same manner in two years time if Democrats do not allow the referendum to take place.
In Rhode Island, marriage equality may be brought to a vote of the Legislature this year. With a new Governor who supports such a bill, and Democrats in control of both Houses, the time has come.
You can be sure that NOM and other marriage-equality foes will be doing everything they possibly can in opposition. Will equality advocates have the money, the will, the organization and the political acumen to prevent NOM from doing premptively in Rhode Island to its legislators what it did to judges in Iowa? A recent poll showed that 59% of Rhode Islanders favor marriage equality.
In Maryland, another state with a Democratic Governor and a Democratic legislature, there is talk of a bill to codify equal marriage rights. The re-elected Governor, Martin O'Malley, has said that if the legislature approves a marriage equality bill he will sign it.
In New York, it's still not clear which party will control the State Senate. There are three races still unresolved; if Republicans win all three, they will control the Senate 33-29. At this point a Democrat leads in one race while Republicans lead in the other two. If Democrats flip one of the leaning-Republican contests the count will be tied, 31-31. No matter what happens, it is possible that a vote on marriage equality will take place in that body in 2011, as the leader of the Senate Republicans has said he might be willing to allow a vote on the issue.
In Connecticut and other states, new lawsuits challenging the Defense of Marriage Act were recently filed by the ACLU, Lambda Legal, and GLAD. New lawsuits include Pedersen et al. v. Office of Personel Management, focusing on denial of benefits to federal employees and retirees, and Windsor v. USA, focusing on the federal estate tax exemption not being available to same-sex spouses.
In California, oral arguments in the Ninth Circuit Federal Court of Appeals will be heard in Perry v Schwarzenegger (the Proposition 8 trial) on December 6th.
The race for Attorney General between the Republican, Steve Cooley, and the Democrat, Kamela Harris, is still unresolved, with Harris currently having a lead of 0.4% (about 30000 votes out of morethan eight million). If Cooley wins, he will try to inject himself and the State of California into the Prop 8 appeals process. Harris has stated that she will not allow California to defend the suit. This could be important both as an issue of standing in terms of the Ninth Circuit's future ruling, and down the road of the case does make it to the Supreme Court.
In Indiana and in North Carolina, there are renewed possibilities that a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage might be passed. In Indiana "...in order for the amendment to be added to the constitution, it has to pass two separately elected General Assemblies and then be approved in a statewide voter referendum on the next general election ballot." In North Carolina, "... The new GOP majority in the Senate will be large enough to approve placing the question on the ballot, but Republicans will likely need the help of four Democratic members in the General Assembly."
Likewise In Minnesota, instead of a vote to legalize same-sex marriage in the Legislature as some were expecting, there is now the distinct possibility that the House and Senate (both now unexpectedly controlled by Republicans) will put a constitutional amendment on the 2012 ballot that would deny its LGBT citizens equal marriage rights. Under Minnesota law, constitutional referendums are solely the domain of the Legislature; the Governor would have no say in the matter.
In New Hampshire, a veto-proof takeover of both Houses of the Legislature by Republicans bodes ill for marriage equality. The law is not even one year old, but there is the very real possibility that it will be revoked and that the Democratic Governor will find his veto overruled. Furthermore, the Legislature may attempt to put a consitutional amendment banning same-sex marrige on the ballot. You can be sure than NOM will spare not expense in demanding votes on these matters in the newly Republican New Hampshire Legislature.
International News:
In the United Kingdom, a heterosexual couple filed suit to be allowed to have a civil union (currently reserved for same-sex couples). This could eventually result in a ruling that all couples must have equal access to both marriage and civil unions, thereby effectively legalizing same-sex marriage in the UK.
In Australia, despite the apparently implacable (and inexplicable) opposition of the Prime Minister, support for holding a vote in Parliament on marriage equality has been gaining momentum. The Green Party has been pushing for a so-called 'conscience vote' which would allow each Member of Parliament to vote regardless of their party's position without fear of reprecussions. Greens have also been pushing for a marriage equality vote in a number of Australian states. A recent poll shows that 60% of Australians support marriage equality!
In Finland, the state-supported Lutheran Church agreed to allow a 'moment of prayer' for couples in same-sex relationships. Finland is on a path to legalize same-sex marriage and this was considered a significant gesture by Church leaders who recently saw 40,000 Church members quit in protest over homophobic remarks made during a debate in which some Church leaders participated.
In Columbia their Supreme Court refused to hear a case demanding marriage equality because of 'lack of sufficient evidence'.
in France, their equivalent of our Supreme Court will hear a case as to whether or not civil marriage must be made available to same-sex couples.