Voters approved two amendments Tuesday that would set new rules for how legislative and congressional districts in Florida are redrawn each decade. Amendment 5 dealt with legislative districts, while Amendment 6 addressed U.S. congressional districts. With 98 percent of precincts reporting, voters affirmed both amendments with more than 62 percent of the vote. The amendments required 60 percent of voter approval to pass. The new amendments require that both legislative and congressional districts be compact, equal in population and make use of existing city, county and geographical boundaries. The amendments prohibit drawing districts to favor or disfavor an incumbent or political party.
Voters approved two amendments Tuesday that would set new rules for how legislative and congressional districts in Florida are redrawn each decade.
Amendment 5 dealt with legislative districts, while Amendment 6 addressed U.S. congressional districts. With 98 percent of precincts reporting, voters affirmed both amendments with more than 62 percent of the vote. The amendments required 60 percent of voter approval to pass.
The new amendments require that both legislative and congressional districts be compact, equal in population and make use of existing city, county and geographical boundaries. The amendments prohibit drawing districts to favor or disfavor an incumbent or political party.
Unfortunately, Rep. Corrine Brown has threatened to sue over the amendment, fearing that rational districts would endanger her majority-African American districts, and that's certainly a danger in having non-gerrymandered districts. Then again, Florida is far more Republican at the congressional level than its partisan makeup indicates thanks to aggressive GOP redistricting efforts last decade. Non-partisan districts would make Democrats more competitive in the state, thus give new opportunities to African American politicians.
At this point in Bush's first term, the frontrunners for the Democratic '04 nomination were Tom Daschle and Joe Lieberman. At this point in Clinton's first term, a third of Democratic voters didn't want him to run for re-election. At this point in Reagan's first term, a Gallup poll showed Reagan trailing then-Sen. John Glenn (D-Ohio) by 15 points, and behind Walter Mondale by 12 points. Immediately after the 1982 midterms, another poll showed 56% of the country did not want Reagan to seek a second term.
At this point in Bush's first term, the frontrunners for the Democratic '04 nomination were Tom Daschle and Joe Lieberman.
At this point in Clinton's first term, a third of Democratic voters didn't want him to run for re-election.
At this point in Reagan's first term, a Gallup poll showed Reagan trailing then-Sen. John Glenn (D-Ohio) by 15 points, and behind Walter Mondale by 12 points. Immediately after the 1982 midterms, another poll showed 56% of the country did not want Reagan to seek a second term.
Driving much of the success — and distancing the state from the national GOP tide, according to exit polls — was a surge in Latino voters. They made up 22% of the California voter pool, a record tally that mortally wounded many Republicans. Latinos were more likely than other voters to say it was the governor's race that impelled them to vote, and they sided more than 2 to 1 with Democrat Jerry Brown over Meg Whitman, the Republican whose campaign had been embroiled in a controversy over illegal immigration. Once at the polls, they voted for other Democrats as well.
Driving much of the success — and distancing the state from the national GOP tide, according to exit polls — was a surge in Latino voters. They made up 22% of the California voter pool, a record tally that mortally wounded many Republicans.
Latinos were more likely than other voters to say it was the governor's race that impelled them to vote, and they sided more than 2 to 1 with Democrat Jerry Brown over Meg Whitman, the Republican whose campaign had been embroiled in a controversy over illegal immigration. Once at the polls, they voted for other Democrats as well.
What this chart doesn't tell us is whether their crosstabs were any good. SUSA did well on the toplines, but they had those crazy crosstabs in which young voters were turning heavily Republican. I haven't dug into all the races yet, but from what I've seen so far, that hasn't happened anywhere.
The top four are bunched up nicely. M-D had the reputation as being one of the best, but it got lapped by a bunch of robo pollsters. Well, all robo pollsters except one:
The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998. Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued.
The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.
Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued.