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In yesterday's diary L Chafee gets selected as the third democrat from Rhode Island. Like I tell yesterday this series take an open view of the word democrat, including some independents what work friendly. Now the update of the series continues with a check of the strength of L Chafee against the more prominent republicans from this state. This diary will include again D Carcieri in the series.

D Carcieri, still governor, and so unpopular after two terms what win narrowly in 2002 and 2006, was now term-limited for continue as governor, but without end still his term the republicans are giving his name as potential challenger of the senator S Whitehouse, who must run for the reelection in 2012. The republicans put always their most prominent people between the potential challengers for everything. Later they can lose the primaries but many times they are ready for a bid.

Today's hypothetical contest is for a generic highest level election (senate or governor). The chance of see this hypothesis becoming real is not high. It would be more likely to see this hypothesis for a gubernatorial race because L Chaffee is the future governor of this state. I would not rule out to see D Carcieri running again.

If you know not previously the series I encourage you to visit the next link:

The point of the series.

It is necessary for understand the next comments and data.

I remember and update from previous diaries the structure of this series. I use schematic language for give the biographical data for keep the maximum information and for keep the series under the limits for the number of characters for a diary in Dailykos.

For the national level: With a consolidated blue ticket we can look to republican side.

REPUBLICAN POTENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES FROM BLUE STATES.

This quote looks to the alone election in the national level, the election for President. In the end of the series will be updated with a new diary about the republicans from the bluest states what sound for President.

Rank by seriousnes:

2010 diary
2009 diary

  1. Timothy James Pawlenty: MN 1960 Governor of MN 03-11.
  1. Willard Mitt Romney: MI MA 1947 Governor of MA 03-07. Lost for President 08. Lost for Senate 94.
  1. Richard John Santorum: VA PA 1958 Senator from PA 95-07. USHRep 91-95. Lost for Senate 06.
  1. Scott Philip Brown: ME MA 1959 Senator from Massachusetts 10- .
  1. Gary Earl Johnson: ND NM 1953 Governor of New Mexico 95-03.
  1. Christopher James Christie: NJ 1962 Governor of New Jersey 10- . Lost for NJ state house 95. Lost for the Morris County Board of CF 98.
  1. George Elmer Pataki: NY 1945 Governor of NY 95-06.
  1. Rudolph William Louis Giuliani: NY 1944 Mayor of New York 94-01. Lost for President 08. Lost for Senate 00.
  1. John Robert Bolton: MD 1948 US Ambassador to the UN 05-06.
  1. John Eric Ensign: CA NV 1958 Senator from Nevada 01- . USHRep 95-99. Lost for senate 98.

All they would be especial level political targets for the democrats, including J Ensign affected by scandals but still active and fighting for continue.

But we will see all they in his home state and we will have better reference about they.

DEMOCRATS OVER THE FIRST DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

Some persons what hold (now or in the past) one of the offices with highest precedence at national level are over this series. Examples: B Obama, W Clinton, J Biden, N Pelosi or H Clinton. They will not be included in the polls for their home (blue) state.

In this box will be orange emphasized the democrats included in the series by hold not still one of the highest level offices in the country but placed by the voters over the state level politicians in his/her home state.

CO0: Diana Louisse DeGette: JAP CO 1957 USHRep 97- .
VT0: Howard Brush Dean III: NY VT 1948 Governor of Vermont 91-03. Lieutenant Governor of VT 87-91. Lost for President in 04.

DEMOCRATS OVER THE FIRST VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

No-one republican comes until this level.

For state level:

THE FIRST DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

RI1: John Frances Reed: RI 1949 Senator from Rhode Island 97- . USHRep 91-97.
DE1: Thomas Richard Carper: WV DE 1947 Senator from Delaware 01- . Governor of Delaware 93-01. USHRep 83-93. DE State Treasurer 77-82.
CT1: Richard Blumenthal: NY CT 1946 Senator from Connecticut 11- . CT Attorney General 90-11.
VT1: Bernard Sanders (Ind): NY VT 1941 Senator from Vermont 07- . USHRep 91-07. Lost for Senate 72 and 74. Lost for Governor 72, 76 and 86. Lost for House 88.
NY1: Charles Ellis Schumer: NY 1949 Senator from New York 99- . USHRep 81-99.
WA1: Patricia Lynn Murray: WA 1950 Senator from Washington 93- .
MD1: Barbara Ann Mikulski: MD 1936 Senator from Maryland 87- . USHRep 77-89. Lost for senate 74.
CA1: Barbara Levy Boxer: NY CA 1940 Senator from California 93- . USHRep 83-93. Lost for Marin County Board of Supervisors 72.
IL1: Richard Joseph Durbin: IL 1944 Senator from Illinois 97- . USHRep 83-97.
MA1: John Forbes Kerry: CO MA 1943 D Presidential Nominee 04. Senator from Massachusetts 85- . Lieutenant Governor of MA 83-85. Lost for President 04. Lost for House 72.
OR1: Jeffrey Alan Merkley: OR 1956 Senator from Oregon 09- .
MI1: Carl Milton Levin: MI 1934 Senator from Michigan 79- .
HI1: Daniel Ken Inouye: HI 1924 Senator from Hawaii 63- . USHRep 59-63.
NH1: Cynthia Jeanne Shaheen: MO NH 1947 Senator from New Hampshire 09- . Governor of New Hampshire 97-03. Lost for senate 02.
NM1: Jesse Francis Bingaman: TX NM 1943 Senator from New Mexico 83- . NM Attorney General 79-83.
NJ1: Robert Menendez: NY NJ 1954 Senator from New Jersey 06- . USHRep 93-06. Lost for Mayor of Union City 82.
MN1: Alan Stuart Franken: NY MN 1951 Senator from Minnesota 09- .
PA1: Robert Patrick Casey Jr: PA 1960 Senator from Pennsylvania 07- . PA State Treasurer 05-07. PA State Auditor 97-05. Lost for Governor 02.
CO1: John Wright Hickenlooper: PA CO 1952 Governor of Colorado 11- . Mayor of Denver 03-11.
IA1: Thomas Richard Harkin: IA 1939 Senator from Iowa 85- . USHRep 75-85. Lost for President 92. Lost for House 72.
NV1: Harry Mason Reid: NV 1939 Senator from Nevada 87- . USHRep 83-87. Lieutenant Governor of NV 71-75. Lost for Senate 74.
WI1: Russell Dana Feingold: WI 1953 Senator from Wisconsin 93-11. Lost for senate 10.
ME1: Chellie M Pingree: MN ME 1955 USHRep 09- . Lost for Senate 02.

Retiring:

DE1R: Edward E Kaufman: PA DE 1939 Senator from Delaware 09-10.

THE FIRST DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

In a 0-10 scale, like this:

--- 00.000 ---
Safe Republican
--- 01.429 ---
Likely Republican
--- 02.857 ---
Leans Republican
--- 04.286 ---
Toss-Up
--- 05.714 ---
Leans Democratic
--- 07.142 ---
Likely Democratic
--- 08.571 ---
Safe Democratic
--- 10.000 ---

ME: C Pingree (D) vs O Snowe (R) after 25 votes = 03.267 => Leans Republican
ME: C Pingree (D) vs S Collins (R) after 17 votes = 03.529 => Leans Republican
IA: T Harkin (D) vs C Grassley (R) after 13 votes = 03.846 => Leans Republican
NV: H Reid (D) vs B Krolicki (R) after 14 votes = 04.286 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Menendez (D) vs F LoBiondo (R) after 16 votes = 05.313 => Toss-Up
NV: H Reid (D) vs B Sandoval (R) after 14 votes = 05.357 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Menendez (D) vs R Frelinghuysen (R) after 17 votes = 05.588 => Toss-Up
ME: C Pingree (D) vs P Mills (R) after 18 votes = 06.481 => Leans Democratic
NJ: R Menendez (D) vs C Smith (R) after 25 votes = 06.533 => Leans Democratic
IA: T Harkin (D) vs T Branstad (R) after 18 votes = 06.574 => Leans Democratic

Other special diaries about the more competitive elections in 2010 and about the possible new candidates for 2012, 2014 or 2016 elections:

WI: R Feingold (D) vs R Johnson (R) after 42 votes = 04.921 => Toss-Up
NV: H Reid (D) vs S Angle (R) after 50 votes = 06.000 => Leans Democratic
CA: B Boxer (D) vs C Fiorina (R) after 53 votes = 06.603 => Leans Democratic
WA: P Murray (D) vs D Rossi (R) after 19 votes = 06.667 => Leans Democratic

REPUBLICANS OVER THE FIRST DEMOCRAT IN HIS/HER HOME STATE

  1. O Snowe
  1. S Collins
  1. C Grassley
  1. B Krolicki

All they would be especial level political targets for the democrats.

THE SECOND DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

NM2: Thomas Stewart Udall: AZ NM 1948 Senator from New Mexico 09- . USHRep 99-09. NM Attorney General 91-99. Lost for House 82 and 88.
RI2: Sheldon Whitehouse: RI 1955 Senator from Rhode Island 07- . RI Attorney General 99-03. Lost for Governor 02.
PA2: Joseph A Sestak: PA 1951 USHRep 07-11. Lost for senate 10.
VT2: Patrick Joseph Leahy: VT 1940 Senator from Vermont 75- .
NY2: Andrew Mark Cuomo: NY 1957 Secretary of HUD 97-01. Governor of New York 11- . NY Attorney General 07-11. Lost for Governor 02.
DE2: Jack A Markell: DE 1960 Governor of Delaware 09- . DE State Treasurer 99-09.
OR2: Ronald Lee Wyden: KS OR 1949 Senator from Oregon 96- . USHRep 81-96.
NH2: John H Lynch: MA NH 1952 Governor of New Hampshire 05- .
MN2: Keith Maurice Ellison: MI MN 1963 USHRep 07- .
MD2: Benjamin Louis Cardin:
MD 1943 Senator from Maryland 07- . USHRep 87-07.
CT2: Susan Bysiewicz: CT 1961 CT Secretary of State 99-11. Lost for Governor 10.
CA2: Debra Bowen: IL CA 1955 CA Secretary of State 07- .
IL2: Lisa Madigan: IL 1966 IL Attorney General 03- .
CO2: Kenneth Lee Salazar: CO 1955 Secretary of Interior 09- . Senator from Colorado 05-09. CO Attorney General 99-05.
WA2: Maria E Cantwell: IN WA 1958 Senator from Washington 01- . USHRep 93-95. Lost for House 94.
HI2: Neil Abercrombie: NY HI 1938 Governor of Hawaii 10- . USHRep 86-87 91-10. Lost for Senate 70. Lost for House 86.
MA2: Joseph Patrick Kennedy: MA 1952 USHRep 87-99.
WI2: Thomas Mark Barrett: WI 1953 USHRep 93-03. Mayor of Milwaukee 04- . Lost for Governor 02 and 10. Lost for WI state house 82.
MI2: Deborah Ann Greer Stabenow: MI 1950 Senator from Michigan 01- . USHRep 97-01. Lost for Governor 94. Lost for Lieutenant Governor of MI 94.
NV2: Frankie Sue Del Papa: NV 1949 NV Secretary of State 87-91. NV Attorney General 91-03.
IA2: Thomas James Vilsack: PA IA 1950 Secretary of Agriculture 09- . Governor of Iowa 99-07. Lost for President 08.
ME2: John Elias Baldacci: ME 1955 Governor of ME 03-11. USHRep 95-03.
NJ2: Richard James Codey: NJ 1946 Governor of New Jersey 04-06. Acting governor of New Jersey 02-02. President of NJ Senate 02-08 08-10.

THE SECOND DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

IA: T Vilsack (D) vs C Grassley (R) after 15 votes = 03.444 => Leans Republican
NV: F Del Papa (D) vs B Sandoval (R) after 11 votes = 03.485 => Leans Republican
ME: J Baldacci (D) vs O Snowe (R) after 32 votes = 03.649 => Leans Republican
NJ: R Codey (D) vs F LoBiondo (R) after 14 votes = 04.167 => Leans Republican
NV: F Del Papa (D) vs B Krolicki (R) after 07 votes = 04.286 => Toss-Up
ME: J Baldacci (D) vs P Mills (R) after 07 votes = 04.286 => Toss-Up
ME: J Baldacci (D) vs S Collins (R) after 21 votes = 04.365 => Toss-Up
IA: T Vilsack (D) vs T Branstad (R) after 20 votes = 04.667 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Codey (D) vs R Frelinghuysen (R) after 11 votes = 04.697 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Codey (D) vs C Smith (R) after 18 votes = 04,722 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Codey (D) vs C Christie (R) after 17 votes = 05.196 => Toss-Up
MI: D Stabenow (D) vs J Engler (R) after 22 votes = 05.227 => Toss-Up
NH: J Lynch (D) vs S Merrill (R) after 11 votes = 05.303 => Toss-Up
NH: J Lynch (D) vs J Gregg (R) after 16 votes = 05.313 => Toss-Up
NH: J Lynch (D) vs K Ayotte (R) after 16 votes = 05.313 => Toss-Up
CO: K Salazar (D) vs W Allard (R) after 09 votes = 05.370 => Toss-Up
PA: J Sestak (D) vs M Schweiker (R) after 19 votes = 05.526 => Toss-Up
CO: K Salazar (D) vs M Coffman (R) after 08 votes = 05.833 => Leans Democratic
MI: D Stabenow (D) vs R Snyder (R) after 14 votes = 05.952 => Leans Democratic
NV: F Del Papa (D) vs D Heller (R) after 08 votes = 06.319 => Leans Democratic

Other special diaries about the more competitive elections in 2010 and about the possible new candidates for 2012, 2014 or 2016 elections:

CA: D Bowen (D) vs M Bono Mack (R) after 28 votes = 05.238 => Toss-Up
MN: K Ellison (D) vs T Pawlenty (R) after 34 votes = 05.392 => Toss-Up
WI: T Barrett (D) vs S Walker (R) after 27 votes = 05.494 => Toss-Up
PA: J Sestak (D) vs P Toomey (R) after 19 votes = 05.614 => Toss-Up
MA: J Kennedy (D) vs S Brown (R) after 31 votes = 06.398 => Leans Democratic
IL: L Madigan (D) vs M Kirk (R) after 15 votes = 06.889 => Leans Democratic
CT: S Bysiewicz (D) vs J Lieberman (Ind) after 32 votes = 07.292 => Likely Democr
HI: N Abercrombie (D) vs J Aiona (R) after 16 votes = 08.750 => Safe Democratic

REPUBLICANS OVER THE SECOND DEMOCRAT IN HIS/HER HOME STATE

  1. B Sandoval
  1. F LoBiondo
  1. P Mills (teabagged)
  1. T Branstad
  1. R Frelinghuysen
  1. C Smith

All they would be especial level political targets for the democrats.

THE THIRD DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

VT3: Peter Shumlin: VT 1956 Governor of Vermont 11- . Lost for Lieutenant Governor of Vermont 02.
DE3: Christopher A Coons: CT DE 1963 Senator from Delaware 11- .
WI3: Tammy Suzanne Green Baldwin: WI 1962 USHRep 99- .
MD3: Martin Joseph O'Malley: DC MD 1963 Governor of Maryland 07- .
HI3: Eric Ken Shinseki: HI 1942 Secretary of Veteran Affairs 09- .
WA3: Christine O'Grady Gregoire: MI WA 1947 Governor of Washington 05- . WA Attorney General 93-05.
CA3: Edmund Gerald Brown: CA 1938 Governor of California 75-83 11- . CA Secretary of State 71-75. CA Attorney General 07-11. Lost for President 76 80 and 92. Lost for Senate 82.
OR3: John Albert Kitzhaber: WA OR 1947 Governor of Oregon 95-03 11- .
IL3: Janice D Schakowsky: IL 1944 USHRep 99- .
NY3: Kirsten Elizabeth Rutnik Gillibrand: NY 1966 Senator from New York 09- . USHRep 07-09.
MN3: Amy Jean Klobuchar: MN 1960 Senator from Minnesota 07- .
MA3: Michael Everett Capuano: MA 1952 USHRep 99- . Lost for senate 10.
NM3: William Blyne Richardson: Secretary of Energy 98-01. US Ambassador to the UN 97-98. Governor of New Mexico 03-11. USHRep 83-97. Lost for House 80.
RI3: Lincoln Davenport Chafee (Ind): RI 1953 Senator from Rhode Island 99-07. Governor of Rhode Island 11- . Lost for Senate 06.
CT3: Dannel Malloy: CT 1955 Governor of Connecticut 11- . Lost for Governor 06.
MI3: Jennifer Mulhern Granholm: CANA MI 1959 Governor of Michigan 03-11. MI Attorney General 99-03.
PA3: Patrick Joseph Murphy: PA 1973 USHRep 07-11. Lost for House 10.
CO3: Mark Emery Udall: AZ CO 1950 Senator from Colorado 09- . USHRep 99-09.
IA3: Chester John Culver: DC IA 1966 Governor 07-11. IA Secretary of State 99-07. Lost for Governor 10.
ME3: Michael Herman Michaud: ME 1955 USHRep 03- . President ME Senate 00-02.
NH3: Paul Hodes: NY NH 1951 USHRep 07-11. Lost for Senate 10. Lost for House 04.
NV3: Robert Joseph Miller: IL NV 1945 Governor of Nevada 89-99. Lieutenant Governor of NV 87-89.
NJ3: William Warren Bradley: MO NJ 1943 Senator from New Jersey 79-97. Lost for President 00.

THE THIRD DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

NJ: W Bradley (D) vs F LoBiondo (R) after 11 votes = 03.030 => Leans Republican
NH: P Hodes (D) vs J Gregg (R) after 15 votes = 03.222 => Leans Republican
NV: R J Miller (D) vs B Sandoval (R) after 12 votes = 03.333 => Leans Republican
ME: M Michaud (D) vs S Collins (R) after 17 votes = 03.431 => Leans Republican
IA: C Culver (D) vs C Grassley (R) after 29 votes = 03.506 => Leans Republican
NV: R J Miller (D) vs D Heller (R) after 09 votes = 03.519 => Leans Republican
ME: M Michaud (D) vs O Snowe (R) after 28 votes = 03.571 => Leans Republican
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs C Smith (R) after 11 votes = 03.636 => Leans Republican
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs R Frelinghuysen (R) after 11 votes = 03.788 => Leans Repub
ME: M Michaud (D) vs P Mills (R) after 07 votes = 04.048 => Leans Republican
NV: R J Miller (D) vs B Krolicki (R) after 08 votes = 04.167 => Leans Republican
IA: C Culver (D) vs T Branstad (R) after 24 votes = 04.375 => Toss-Up
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs C Christie (R) after 20 votes = 04.583 => Toss-Up
CO: M Udall (D) vs W Allard (R) after 12 votes = 04.722 => Toss-Up
NH: P Hodes (D) vs S Merrill (R) after 07 votes = 04.762 => Toss-Up
NH: P Hodes (D) vs K Ayotte (R) after 14 votes = 04.762 => Toss-Up
PA: P Murphy (D) vs M Schweiker (R) after 09 votes = 04.815 => Toss-Up
CO: M Udall (D) vs M Coffman (R) after 09 votes = 04.815 => Toss-Up
MI: J Granholm (D) vs R Snyder (R) after 19 votes = 04.825 => Toss-Up
MI: J Granholm (D) vs J Engler (R) after 14 votes = 04.881 => Toss-Up
ME: M Michaud (D) vs J McKernan (R) after 07 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
PA: P Murphy (D) vs T Corbett (R) after 07 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
PA: P Murphy (D) vs P Toomey (R) after 19 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs M Bono Mack (R) after 17 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
MI: J Granholm (D) vs F Upton (R) after 11 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs S Garrett (R) after 13 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
IA: C Culver (D) vs D Vaudt (R) after 17 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
MI: J Granholm (D) vs C Miller (R) after 14 votes = 05.119 => Toss-Up
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs P Ryan (R) after 14 votes = 05.119 => Toss-Up
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs J Sensenbrenner (R) after 14 votes = 05.119 => Toss-Up
NV: R J Miller (D) vs S Lowden (R) after 11 votes = 05.152 => Toss-Up
PA: P Murphy (D) vs T Platts (R) after 09 votes = 05.185 => Toss-Up
CO: M Udall (D) vs K Buck (R) after 15 votes = 05.222 => Toss-Up
NV: R J Miller (D) vs J Ensign (R) after 21 votes = 05.238 => Toss-Up
WA: C Gregoire (D) vs C McMorris Rodgers (R) after 14 votes = 05.238 => Toss-Up
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs T Pawlenty (R) after 25 votes = 05.333 => Toss-Up
NV: R J Miller (D) vs S Angle (R) after 15 votes = 05.333 => Toss-Up
MA: M Capuano (D) vs C Baker (R) after 13 votes = 05.385 => Toss-Up
IA: C Culver (D) vs T Latham (R) after 19 votes = 05.439 => Toss-Up
HI: E Shinseki (D) vs J Aiona (R) after 13 votes = 05.513 => Toss-Up
CO: M Udall (D) vs D Lamborn (R) after 13 votes = 05.513 => Toss-Up
IL: J Schakowsky (D) vs J Edgar (R) after 19 votes = 05.526 => Toss-Up
HI: E Shinseki (D) vs L Lingle (R) after 15 votes = 05.556 => Toss-Up
MI: J Granholm (D) vs W Schuette (R) after 17 votes = 05.588 => Toss-Up
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs S Walker (R) after 11 votes = 05.606 => Toss-Up
CT: D Malloy (D) vs J Rell (R) after 10 votes = 05.667 => Toss-Up
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs R Johnson (R) after 15 votes = 05.667 => Toss-Up
IL: J Schakowsky (D) vs A Schock (R) after 24 votes = 05.694 => Toss-Up
WA: C Gregoire (D) vs R McKenna (R) after 16 votes = 05.729 => Leans Democratic
NH: P Hodes (D) vs J Sununu (R) after 13 votes = 05.769 => Leans Democratic
VT: P Shumlin (D) vs B Dubie (R) after 15 votes = 05.778 => Leans Democratic
OR: J Kitzhaber (D) vs G Walden (R) after 12 votes = 05.833 => Leans Democratic
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs M Seifert (R) after 22 votes = 05.833 => Leans Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs M Whitman (R) after 25 votes = 05.867 => Leans Democrat
IA: C Culver (D) vs W Northey (R) after 15 votes = 05.889 => Leans Democratic
NM: W Richardson (D) vs G Johnson (R) after 15 votes = 05.889 => Leans Democr
PA: P Murphy (D) vs W Shuster (R) after 13 votes = 05.897 => Leans Democratic
MI: J Granholm (D) vs M Rogers (R) after 11 votes = 05.909 => Leans Democratic
CT: D Malloy (D) vs T Foley (R) after 14 votes = 05.952 => Leans Democratic
OR: J Kitzhaber (D) vs G Smith (R) after 12 votes = 05.972 => Leans Democratic
NM: W Richardson (D) vs S Martinez (R) after 10 votes = 06.000 => Leans Democr
IL: J Schakowsky (D) vs P Roskam (R) after 25 votes = 06.133 => Leans Democrat
OR: J Kitzhaber (D) (D) vs C Dudley (R) after 20 votes = 06.167 => Leans Democr
VT: P Shumlin (D) vs T M Salmon (R) after 07 votes = 06.190 => Leans Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs D Nunes (R) after 18 votes = 06.204 => Leans Democratic
DE: C Coons (D) vs T Wagner (R) after 15 votes = 06.222 => Leans Democratic
PA: P Murphy (D) vs J Scarnati (R) after 23 votes = 06.232 => Leans Democratic
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs M Neumann (R) after 16 votes = 06.250 => Leans Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs A Schwarzenegger (R) after 20 votes = 06.333 => Leans D
MI: J Granholm (D) vs P Hoekstra (R) after 20 votes = 06.333 => Leans Democratic
CT: D Malloy (D) vs J Lieberman (Ind) after 23 votes = 06.377 => Leans Democratic
IL: J Schakowsky (D) vs W Brady (R) after 19 votes = 06.403 => Leans Democratic
MA: M Capuano (D) vs M Romney (R) after 27 votes = 06.419 => Leans Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs C Fiorina (R) after 29 votes = 06.437 => Leans Democratic
MA: M Capuano (D) vs S Brown (R) after 54 votes = 06.481 => Leans Democratic
WA: C Gregoire (D) vs D Rossi (R) after 21 votes = 06.508 => Leans Democratic
MI: J Granholm (D) vs M Cox (R) after 12 votes = 06.528 => Leans Democratic
CO: M Udall (D) vs W Owens (R) after 07 votes = 06.667 => Leans Democratic
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs E Paulsen (R) after 20 votes = 06.667 => Leans Democrat
CO: M Udall (D) vs J Suthers (R) after 08 votes = 06.667 => Leans Democratic
NV: R J Miller (D) vs J Gibbons (R) after 17 votes = 06.765 => Leans Democratic
ME: M Michaud (D) vs P LePage (R) after 15 votes = 06.778 => Leans Democratic
NH: P Hodes (D) vs C Benson (R) after 14 votes = 06.786 => Leans Democratic
HI: E Shinseki (D) vs C Djou (R) after 24 votes = 06.806 => Leans Democratic
IL: J Schakowsky (D) vs D Manzullo (R) after 31 votes = 06.828 => Leans Democr
IL: J Schakowsky (D) vs M Kirk (R) after 40 votes = 06.875 => Leans Democratic
PA: P Murphy (D) vs R Santorum (R) after 16 votes = 06.875 => Leans Democratic
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs J Van Hollen (R) after 15 votes = 07.111 => Leans Democratic
RI: L Chafee (Ind) vs D Carcieri (R) after 07 votes = 07.143 => Likely Democratic
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs R Grams (R) after 26 votes = 07.179 => Likely Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs K McCarthy (R) after 18 votes = 07.222 => Likely Democr
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs R Kasten (R) after 16 votes = 07.292 => Likely Democratic
VT: P Shumlin (D) vs J Douglas (R) after 05 votes = 07.333 => Likely Democratic
NY: K Gillibrand (D) vs R Giuliani (R) after 20 votes = 07.417 => Likely Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs D D Hunter (R) after 20 votes = 07.583 => Likely Democrat
NY: K Gillibrand (D) vs G Pataki (R) after 20 votes = 07.750 => Likely Democratic
MI: J Granholm (D) vs T McCotter (R) after 18 votes = 07.778 => Likely Democratic
WI: T Baldwin (D) vs S McCallum (R) after 10 votes = 07.833 => Likely Democratic
MD: M O'Malley (D) vs J Bolton (R) after 10 votes = 07.833 => Likely Democratic
MD: M O'Malley (D) vs R Ehrlich (D) after 25 votes = 07.867 => Likely Democratic
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs N Coleman (R) after 37 votes = 07.883 => Likely Democrat
NY: K Gillibrand (D) vs C Lee (R) after 18 votes = 08.056 => Likely Democratic
CA: E B Brown Jr (D) vs D Dreier after 07 votes = 08.095 => Likely Democratic
MN: A Klobuchar (D) vs T Emmer (R) after 30 votes = 08.222 => Likely Democratic
NY: K Gillibrand (D) vs T Reed (R) after 18 votes = 08.796 => Safe Democratic
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs A Maldonado (R) after 06 votes = 09.167 => Safe Democrat
CA: E G Brown Jr (D) vs D Lungren (R) after 13 votes = 09.487 => Safe Democratic
RI: L Chafee (Ind) vs J Robitaille (R)

REPUBLICANS OVER THE THIRD DEMOCRAT IN HIS/HER HOME STATE

  1. J Gregg
  1. D Heller
  1. C Christie
  1. W Allard
  1. K Ayotte
  1. S Merrill
  1. M Schweiker
  1. M Coffman
  1. R Snyder
  1. J Engler

All they would be special level political targets for the democrats.

INCUMBENTS IN THE NEXT CYCLE NO-SELECTED

This group includes the politicians what will be incumbents after 2010 elections (with or without run in 2010). Few no-selected democrats can win. The majority of them are incumbents or very known politicians.

CANS: Dianne Goldman Berman Feinstein: CA 1933 Senator from California 92- . Mayor of San Francisco 78-88. Lost for Mayor of San Francisco 71 and 75. Lost for Governor 90.
HINS: Daniel Kahikina Akaka: HI 1924 Senator from Hawaii 90- . USHRep 77-90.
NJNS: Frank Raleigh Lautenberg: NJ 1924 Senator from New Jersey 82-01 03- .
WINS: Herbert H Kohl: WI 1935 Senator from Wisconsin 89- .
CONS: Michael Farrand Bennet: IND CO 1964 Senator from Colorado 09- .
MNNS: Mark Brandt Dayton: MN 1947 Senator from Minnesota 01-07. Governor of Minnesota 11- . MN State Auditor 91-95. Lost for Senate 82. Lost for Governor 98.
MANS: Deval Laurdine Patrick: MA 1956 Governor of Massachusetts 07- .
ILNS: Patrick Joseph Quinn: IL 1948 Governor of Illinois 09- . Lieutenant Governor of IL 03-09. IL State Treasurer 91-95. Lost for Senate 96. Lost for Lieutenant Governor of IL 98. Lost for IL Secretary of State 94. Lost for IL State Treasurer 86.

Lost:

ILNS: Alexander Giannoulias: IL 1976 IL Treasurer 07-11. Lost for Senate 10.

NO-SELECTED DEMOCRATS VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

CO: M Bennet (D) vs K Buck (R) after 18 votes = 05.093 => Toss-UP
IL: P Quinn (D) vs W Brady (R) after 32 votes = 05.156 => Toss-Up
WI: H Kohl (D) vs P Ryan (R) after 31 votes = 05.323 => Toss-Up
NJ: F Lautenberg (D) vs F LoBiondo (R) after 18 votes = 05.463 => Toss-Up
MA: D Patrick (D) vs C Baker (R) after 17 votes = 05.687 => Toss-Up
IL: A Giannoulias (D) vs M Kirk (R) after 53 votes = 05.912 => Leans Democratic
MN: M Dayton (D) vs T Emmer (R) after 29 votes = 06.724 => Leans Democratic
CA: D Feinstein (D) vs M Bono Mack (R) after 26 votes = 06.731 => Leans Democrat
HI: D Akaka (D) vs L Lingle (R) after 26 votes = 06.731 => Leans Democratic

Finally we have not better news about R Conlin (IA-Sen), R Reid (NV-Gov) and V Bernero (MI-Gov) but I check before the elections about ME-Gov, NM-Gov and PA-Gov.

ME: E Mitchell (D) vs P LePage (R) after 10 votes = 05.667 => Toss-Up
PA: D Onorato (D) vs T Corbett (R) after 15 votes = 03.667 => Leans Republican
NM: D Denish (D) vs S Martinez (R) after 15 votes = 03.556 => Leans Republican

Like the readers can see, this series takes L Chafee (Ind) in the side of the friends and J Lieberman (Ind) in the side of the adversaries because the voters here decide that.

RANK OF BLUE STATES FROM HIGHER TO LOWER REPUBLICAN GERRYMANDER REDISTRICTING FOR THE U.S. HOUSE DISTRICTS

From Wikipedia: "Gerrymandering is a form of boundary delimitation (redistricting) in which electoral district or constituency boundaries are deliberately modified for electoral purposes, thereby producing a contorted or unusual shape. The resulting district is known as a gerrymander; however, that word can also refer to the process. Gerrymandering may be used to achieve desired electoral results for a particular party..."

Looking to the data it is obvious what the republicans are taking advantage of the redistricting process. Between all the 435 house seats, 194 are D+, 9 are EVEN, and 232 are R+ districts following the Cook Partisan Voting Index. That mean it is easier for the republicans win the majority in the US House cause of the current redistricting.

In the 23 states included in these series, the bluest states, they are 78 US House districts with R+ rate. The republicans will hold 71 of these districts and the democrats 7 after the elections.

In the 27 states included not in this series, some of they swing states like Ohio, Florida and others, they are only 50 D+ or EVEN districts. The democrats will hold 46 and the republicans will hold 4 (FL-22, OH-01, OH-12 and OH-15).

Looking to the redistricting I make this rank what can show the current situation in the bluest states.

I create the RGR (Republican Gerrymander Redistricting) rate for try see what states have worse redistricting for democrats. In a 0.000-1.000 scale with 1.000 as absolute republican gerrymander redistricting:

RGR=0.487 D+05 Michigan
RGR=0.369 D+07 New Jersey
RGR=0.368 D+09 Illinois
RGR=0.360 D+08 California
RGR=0.325 D+03 Minnesota
RGR=0.300 D+04 Oregon
RGR=0.259 D+12 New York
RGR=0.250 D+03 Wisconsin
RGR=0.250 D+09 Maryland
RGR=0.247 D+02 Pennsylvania
RGR=0.222 D+04 Washington
RGR=0.133 D+02 Nevada
RGR=0.100 D+06 Maine
RGR=0.086 D+00 Colorado
RGR=0.060 D+07 Connecticut
RGR=0.033 D+02 New Mexico
RGR=0.000 D+01 Iowa
RGR=0.000 D+01 New Hampshire
RGR=0.000 D+12 Massachusetts
RGR=0.000 D+07 Delaware
RGR=0.000 D+11 Rhode Island
RGR=0.000 D+13 Hawaii
RGR=0.000 D+13 Vermont

Some blue states are still affected by previous republican gerrymander redistricting, like we can see, and need an urgent redistricting.

The links in the state names go to my diaries about democratic gerrymander redistricting (always finding the limits) for these states in Swing State Project.

My way for redistrict New York is recogniced as winner in Swing State Project Contest for this state with nice words. Thanks to SSP. And thanks to Dave for his application for redistricting. If you wish help him for add new data, you can go here.

Many times the Governor, the State Senate and the State House are key in the redistricting process, cause of that is very important have a democratic majority. In HI, ME, WA, NJ and IA they are independent or bipartisan commissions for redistricting. For the remaining 27 states we can see the same only for ID and AZ. The republicans take advantage of this again.

Unfortunately the democrats lost many state chambers the last election. Despite that, the democrats must wake up, must forget dreams about non-partisan redistricting because we are playing in pro-republican maps, and must make the necessary for minimize the advantage what the republicans have from previous redistricting.

For see my last diary with all the updates click in "abgin's diary". All the polls continue open to new votes still.

Originally posted to abgin on Sat Dec 04, 2010 at 01:38 PM PST.

Poll

RI: L Chafee (Ind) vs D Carcieri (R)

14%1 votes
42%3 votes
14%1 votes
14%1 votes
14%1 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes

| 7 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Huh???? (0+ / 0-)

    no comprendo nada. I can't even vote in your poll, since on that match-up there is no Democrat. (You can call Chafee a Democrat, but he isn't one.) Carcieri might run for US Senate in 2012, or try anyway, but he'd be running against incumbent Sheldon Whitehouse, who has done a terrific job and will be very hard to beat. Linc Chafee's term as governor goes through 2014 and he'd be a fool to give it up for a rematch against Whitehouse. So, again, what's the point of a match-up between these two?

    •  well (0+ / 0-)

      ya lo siento.

      I can not edit the poll, it would be better if I would write independent but it is obvious who is more close to the democratic side.

      L Chafee is in this series in the side of the friends because the people vote for it in a previous diary.

      This diary find check the strength of L Chafee. If you see The point of the series, the first link in the body of the diary, you will see what this series check the politician selected as the third democrat (since an open view of the word democrat) from every state with all the republicans what are here always with the same generic question for have a reference between all the politicians included in the series. You can see more in The point of the series.

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