Just a few thoughts on some of the topics that have been prominent on Daily Kos in the past few days.
The Tax-Cut Extension Deal. It sticks in my craw, but I think we have no choice but to swallow it. I hate the idea of extending tax cuts to millionaires and trust fund babies, but facts are facts, and the fact is that we are about to have a Republican-controlled House of Representatives. The deal negotiated by the Obama administration is the best that we are going to get given the current political environment. Yes, it stinks. But at least it extends unemployment benefits for another year, a prospect that seems unlikely under the House of Boehner. When the deal was first negotiated I was one of those saying "Hell no!" and suggesting that we should call the GOP's bluff. But now that I've had time to ruminate on it, I don't think they're bluffing. They would be perfectly happy to see people's unemployment run out. So yeah, it's a lousy compromise, and in 2012, when it comes up again, we will be smack in the middle of a presidential election cycle that looks set to be the bitterest in memory. So the odds of getting it repealed then don't seem great. But when the choices are between BAD and AWFUL, you choose BAD.
DADT Repeal. Joe Manchin took a beating on this site the other day when he effectively voted against repealing DADT. I'll say now what I said then: What do you expect from Joe Manchin? He is a newly elected senator from a state that is hardly known for being gay friendly. He has another election in two years, when, as already mentioned, we will be in the midst of a contentious presidential cycle. West Virginia has been trending more and more red in recent years. They're not going to elect a Teddy Kennedy or a Chuck Schumer. Frankly I think Manchin is the best that we can expect. Yeah, maybe Robert Byrd would have voted differently, but he's gone. And yeah, maybe Jay Rockefeller is more socially progressive. But Byrd was -- and Rockefeller is -- an entrenched institution in WV. Manchin is a newbie in a Bible Belt state. Expecting him to be a reliable pro-LGBT vote is unrealistic. That might suck, but guess what? Reality sucks sometimes. And to all those who say that an anti-LGBT Democrat is just as bad as an anti-LGBT Republican, I'd say check your hyperbole at the door. Manchin may not vote with progressives all of the time, but he will do so some of the time, and some is better than none. The kind of political absolutism that would condemn Manchin as no different than a Republican sounds a lot like the Green voters in Florida who said that Al Gore was no different than George Bush. I don't think anyone can seriously make that case any more. The 1964 Civil Rights Act was passed without the support of 19 out of 20 Southern Democratic senators -- we can achieve LGBT rights without Joe Manchin.
The Obama Presidency. It's too soon to start writing obituaries yet. But I will admit that I am pretty fed up with the president. I think he is too willing to compromise on too many things. At the very least he needs to communicate a more coherent vision of what he wants the next couple years to be about. Something beyond the lofty but ultimately hollow rhetoric of "bringing people together." That said, it's not as if the Republicans enjoy massive public support. On the contrary, every poll I have seen seems to indicate a public unhappy with both parties. And the tides of presidential fortune turn mainly on economic factors. The single most accurate predictor of a presidential election is economic performance in the second quarter (April-May-June) of the election year. If it is good, the party in the White House always wins. If it is bad, they always lose. Where it gets hazy is when it is neither clearly good nor clearly bad. Who can say what the economy will look like in April 2012? Nothing is assured. Will Obama face a primary challenge (usually the kiss of death for incumbent presidents -- ask Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush)? Will Sarah Palin be the Republican nominee? If not, will she run some quixotic third-party campaign under the Tea Party imprimatur (ohpleaseohpleaseohpleaseohplease)? Will Mitt Romney and John Thune strip to the waist and fight it out for the title of Blandly Handsomest Man Alive?
At least if they do we'll all get to see Romney's magic underwear.