I see op-ed articles and DailyKos diaries touting how successful President Obama has been since his election and how successful the 111 congress has been. E. J. Dionne in Obama's Orphans writes:
They (Democrats who controlled the 111 Congress) gave the safe option a pass, with two results: This will go down as the most productive Congress since the 89th, which was even more Democratic because of Lyndon Johnson's 1964 landslide. And 52 Democratic House incumbents, most elected in 2006 or 2008, lost their seats.
The departing Democrats are, as one in their ranks put it, "Obama's Orphans." So many of them cast vote after vote for the president's program. They were then left at the side of the road while history moved by.
Let me agree that there were many accomplishments. President Obama was elected to fix the unemployment and fix health care. He did failed at both.
Yes, unemployment is no longer rapidly rising, but neither is unemployment falling. The problem is far from fixed. I remember the famous bikini curve.
The problem is the job gains shown at the right end of the graph, did not continue. On April 26, 2010 I posted the diary Jobs, Jobs, and again Jobs where I said:
Okay employment is increasing. Yes there is the infamous bikini curve showing increasing unemployment rates under Bush and decreasing unemployment rates under Obama. The bottom line is that unless unemployment is below 8%, say 5 or 6 percent, Democrats will lose big time in November. Perhaps we (presuming you are a Democrat) will lose the House and/or the Senate. As Clinton said, "It's the economy, stupid."
Republicans will run claiming high taxes and high deficits are hurting the economy. High taxes is a lie, plain and simple. But, Republicans will run on the mantra that lowering taxes is necessary. And then there is the deficit. Forget that Bush caused the deficit by cutting taxes for the wealthy and increasing defense spending so the wealthy could get wealthier. Not to mention starting two wars.
Guess what? My predictions were accurate. Not 90% accurate, but 100% accurate. Yes, I praise President Obama's accomplishments. The failure to create jobs is what caused the shellacking he and democrats took last November. If unemployment was below 8%, say 5% or 6%, then democrats might have been able to maintain majorities in both houses of congress. Sure democrats would have lost seats, but not nearly so many.
Yes, getting rid of "don't ask, don't tell" is an accomplishment. So is confirming the START treaty. In comparison to the country's unemployment problems, these are minor. Even worry about the disparity in wealth and earnings between the upper 1% of the population and the rest of us is minor compared to unemployment. And yes keeping the federal government open is important, but not as important as reducing unemployment.
Worse, unemployment will increase. The answer is simple. A large part of the unemployment problem right now is due to lack of demand. Maintaining unemployment insurance, keeps demand by those for whom unemployment insurance is maintained. But, this does absolutely nothing to increase demand. Those who lose their unemployment insurance despite the legislation will reduce demand. As Christmas passes, so will the demand for goods pass. Retailers will lay people off. States and local governments have massive budget shortfalls. Again more layoffs. Tax cuts do little to stimulate demand. The grand compromise may very well hurt the economy as T-bond rating may be reduced resulting in interest rates for everybody increasing. I predict unemployment in the new year will increase. President Obama and the democrats will get the blame.
President Obama's second failure is health care. The health care bill does not cover millions of Americans. Worse, states when faced with budget cuts, cut budgets for the weakest citizens. This means cuts to Medicaid spending. Millions on Medicaid will either receive poorer health care or no care at all. The article Medicaid Cuts Hurt At The State Level says:
Across the country, state lawmakers have taken harsh actions to try to rein in the budget-busting costs of the health care program that serves 58 million poor and disabled Americans. Some states have cut payments to doctors, paid bills late and trimmed benefits such as insulin pumps, obesity surgery and hospice care.
Lawmakers are bracing for more work when they reconvene in January. Some states face multibillion-dollar deficits. Federal stimulus money for Medicaid is soon to evaporate. And Medicaid enrollment has never been higher because of job losses.
Bottom line is millions of Americans will lose health care and suffer.
So yes there have been many successes. But the successes matter little until the economy and health care fixed. So what are we to do. I believe we should do what James Galbraith advocates in Whose Side Is the White House On?.
Beyond this, bold proposals are what we should be advancing now; even when they lose, they have their value. We can talk about job programs; we can talk about an infrastructure bank; we can talk about Juliet Schor’s idea of a four-day work week; we can talk about my idea of expanding Social Security and creating an early retirement option so that people who are older and unemployed or anxious to get out of the labor force can leave on comfortable terms, and so create job openings for younger people who, as we’ve heard today, are facing very long periods of extremely aggravating and frustrating unemployment; we can talk about establishing a systematic program of general revenue sharing to support state and local governments, we can talk about the financial restructuring we so desperately need and that we’ll have to have if we are going to have a country which has a viable private credit system and in which large financial power is not constantly dictating the terms of every political maneuver.
. . .
This isn’t a parlor game. The outcome isn’t destined to be alright. It will not necessarily end in progress whatever happens. What we do, how we proceed, and how we effectively resist what is plainly about to happen, matters very greatly for the future of our country, of our children, and of another generation to come. We need to lose our fear, our hesitation, and our unwillingness to face the facts. If we thereby lose some of our hopes, let’s remember the dictum of William of Orange that "it is not necessary to hope in order to persevere."
2012 is a lost cause. We must prepare for 2016.