Highlights: deal likely in the Senate, but so are changes. Continuing grassroots pressure against the deal--such as signing our petition--can only make it better.
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The Senate is going to vote on the tax deal before the House, which has apparently had enough of being the first to vote on contentious pieces of legislation. Majority Leader Steny Hoyer made this announcement yesterday:
"We'd like the Senate to move first on this issue," Hoyer told reporters.
In the Senate, with Bernie Sanders promising a filibuster, the deal will need 60 votes in order to achieve cloture. Most of those votes are going to have to come from Republicans, as the majority of Democratic Senators are opposed:
Even with unanimous Republican support, which is not assured, at least 18 Senate Democrats would need to support the package to overcome a potential filibuster. About a dozen Senate Democrats have voiced a willingness to temporarily extend all of the Bush-era tax rates, given the weak economy. Aides said about 30 were firmly opposed, leaving 16 or so undecided.
With 16 (or so) undecided, getting another 6 Democrats would not be very difficult for the White House.
However, it’s going to take more than 18 Democratic Senators, as Republican Jim DeMint of South Carolina has come out in opposition to the deal. Whether DeMint is flying solo, or carrying a handful of Republicans along with him (both options are quite possible), remains the central question on passage of the bill in the Senate. As David discussed earlier today, it's more likely than not that DeMint has at least a few supporters.
The bottom line is that the deal has close to enough votes for passage in the Senate, but still isn’t quite there. The most likely scenario it that a deal will pass sometime next week, but with slight changes to appease the remaining fence-sitters. This echoes what both Harry Reid and David Axelrod have said in the last few hours. A deal is likely, but so are changes to the deal.
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In this scenario, the role of the grassroots is to keep up as much pressure as possible in opposition to the deal while the negotiations take place behind closed doors. We don’t have a seat at the negotiating table ourselves, but our agitation can increase the strength of the people who do. As such, even if you support the deal, the best move right now is to offer public support for the Democrats leading the charge in opposition to the deal. Doing so can only improve the final outcome, even if only marginally.
So please, keep showing your support for the Democrats leading the progressive opposition to the deal. Sign our petition supporting them. We are nearing 25,000 signers, and I will be delivering the petition to Capitol Hill tomorrow.