The headline to the Washington Post's summary of its recent polling tells the story: Poll finds most Americans are unhappy with government
But diving inside the numbers gives us some insight into the public mood regarding health care reform plus a path forward for the Democrats going into the 2010 midterm elections.
Media coverage will focus on the public's view of Obama's handling of the main issues. Among the main issues polled (question 2), Obama has net negatives for handling health care, the economy, the deficit and jobs creation. The lone net positive is his handling of terrorism. But when offered a choice between Obama and Congressional Republicans, the American public prefers Obama to Congressional Republicans in ALL 5 categories (question 5).
We'll dive deeper into the numbers as this relates to health care reform after the fold.
While Obama has a net negative rating for his handling of health care reform (43% approve / 53% disapprove), the public still prefers Obama to deal with the issue over Congressional Republicans by a margin of 46% to 41%.
Americans overwhelmingly want health care reform (question 19). Sixty-three percent say keeping trying to pass comprehensive health care reform, as opposed to only 34% who say give up on it. But they are highly skeptical that comprehensive health reform will pass (question 20). Forty-eight percent believe it has a chance of becoming law this year, while 46% percent think the legislation is dead.
**DEMOCRATS - THIS IS YOUR ENTHUSIASM GAP**
The gulf between the desire for reform and the American people's view that it will actually happen represents a huge political boost for the Democrats going into the mid-term election. This is made painfully clear in who the public will hold responsible for health care reform not passing (question 20a) - the Democrats.
Of the 46% who thought comprehensive health care reform was dead, 17% blamed Obama, 28% blamed Congressional Democrats (for a total of 45% blaming Democrats), while only 34% blame Republicans in Congress.
If we just stopped here, then the political calculus is clear. Republicans should attempt everything possible to keep health care reform from passing. Asked if it was good or bad that Republicans had enough seats in the Senate to block legislation, 57% thought it was good and 36% thought it was bad.
But while the public is pleased with this prospect in the abstract, they don't think it should dominate what is happening in the Senate. Only 25% viewed using this power often was good, while 68% thought it should be used sparingly. More tellingly, fifty-eight percent think Republicans are doing too little to work with President Obama on important issues (question 9).
So we have an electorate that really wants comprehensive health care reform and will hold the Democrats responsible if it doesn't pass, but won't cut Congressional Republicans any slack for being obstructionists on legislation the American people want.
The time to pass comprehensive health care reform is now, because Democrats will lose the blame game if nothing passes. Even if the electorate is mad at everyone for nothing passing, Democrats will lose out more than Republicans. The gap between the 63% who want health care reform and the 48% who think it's possible represents a huge pickup for Democrats in Congress and Obama in general going into the midterm elections.
Obama and the Congressional Democrats should use the health care summit to simplify their message. While the public supports a list of the component pieces - majorities recognize the need for an individual mandate and subsidies for low-income people (question 18b), and would like to see an employer mandate (question 18a), and overwhelmingly want insurance companies to cover everyone regardless of pre-existing condition (question 18c) - they complain that reform is too complicated (question 16).
The health care summit needs to be the culmination of year-long process, not a time to start from scratch. It needs to focus on properly packaging the bill as reforms Americans already support. Obama needs to address people's deficit concerns by highlighting how health care reform actually lowers the deficit. Finally, the summit needs to be a platform to show that Republicans will either deal in good faith on legislation the people favor or risk being exposed as obstructionists for purely partisan purposes. This is the gamesmanship of the summit.
Visit Organizing for America's Health Care Action Center and tell your representatives that you want health care reform passed. This is the clear electoral path for the midterm elections.
You can:
Call Congress
Email your representative
Write a letter to the editor
to voice your support.