A week from Thursday is the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution and the beginning of the Islamic Republic of Iran. February 11th, known as 22 Bahman in Iran will mark the anniversary with the usual government celebrations, but the Reform/Green movement has made it a target date for massive protests again. The battle between the government and the reformers has heated up significantly as two men were hung last week and the government promised to hang nine more in advance of 22 Bahman. Reform candidate/leader Mir Hossein Mousavi made some of his most provocative criticisms yesterday. He stopped short of calling for an end to the Islamic Republic but he repeatedly compared the current leadership to the Shah's regime--a comparison that may well finally draw his arrest.
In the build up to next week's anniversary of the Revolution, the government and Green/Reform forces appear to be on a collision course and this will likely be the bloodiest of confrontations yet. Ahmadinejad and other hard-liners in the government and law enforcement have spoken repeatedly of protests being the work of foreigners and that they will be crushed. For their part, the opposition has not backed down and appears to be making plans to come out in mass again on February 11th--22 Bahman.
Last week the government executed two men who had been arrested before the June election controversy in an attempt to intimidate the Green/Reform Movement out of their protest plans on 22 Bahman. See here: Huffington Post 1/28/10. Just yesterday the government promised to execute nine more dissidents from last summer's protests in continuing attempts to silence protests in advance. See here: Telegraph UK 2/2/10.
On the Reform side, Mir Hossein Mousavi has issued some of his harshest criticism yet, and although he stopped short of calling for an end to the Islamic Republic, he compared the current leaders to the Shah's regime:
We can spot the factors and roots which could degenerate into dictatorship. The muzzling of press and media, our overcrowded prisons and the brutal killing of people in the streets in response to their peaceful demands for their rights demonstrate well the existence of roots of dictatorship and autocracy dating from the monarchical regime.
Referring to a hard-line Ayatollah's recent Friday Prayer call for executing more "enemies of Islam" that protest the regime, Mousavi wrote:
He is unaware of the power of the blood of the innocent and he has forgotten the fact that the flood of martyrs' blood led to the overthrow of the shah regime.
These two statements alone are highly provocative and could easily result in Mousavi's arrest. Many of the more hard-line members of the current government in the Majlis (Parliament) the Judiciary and elsewhere have been periodically calling for Mousavi's arrest. It seems as though Mousavi is daring them to do so. You can read the bulk of Mousavi's translated comments here: LATimes Blog 2/2/10. Whatever Mousavi's role in the 1980s may have been as Prime Minister, he seems intent on establishing more democratic institutions and there is no doubt that these recent statements have put him in more mortal danger than at any time since June.
CNN has also covered Mousavi's recent remarks: CNN 2/2/10. It is certainly useful to look at both translations. It is worth noting that while Mousavi is one of the most visible leaders and symbols of the Reform movement, they really don't have strongly hierarchical leadership. Much of the energy of the protest movement is innate and even if Mousavi is arrested, this will likely increase protest action and not suppress it. Even if Mousavi were assassinated or executed, the movement would definitely go on.
As always with Iran, there is no way to know what the next 10 days or so will bring, but a large display and significant conflict remains highly likely. The growing Reform/Green Movement has caused hard-liners to call more vigorously for repression. The intent of the protesters appears unstoppable as well. There seems to be a feeling that a major explosion is brewing. However, it is important to note, that a massive protest and wide-scale violence will likely only be another event in the cycle. The hope would be that the larger the protest and subsequent reprisal, the more the drive for Reform grows and more Iranians join the cause of Reform. As much as I would hope for this to reach some kind of conclusion next week--it is more likely to be another chapter in the unfolding story whose ending is not yet known. I continue to pray for the protesters, and I hope that something lasting and useful comes from the sacrifices of those already gone or suffering and those likely to join the ranks of martyrs next week.
Once again I will leave you with my favorite anthem of the Green/Reform Movement:
An khas o khaashak toee You are mean little thorns
Paast tar az khaak toee You are lower than dirt
Shoor manam I am passion and fervor
Noor manam I am light
Asheghe ranjoor manam I am afflicted with love
Zoor toee You are Oppression
Koor toee You are Blind
Haleye ninoor toee Your Halo has no light
Dalir bibuk manam I am the Valiant
Maleke in khak manam This is my Land
In the first video I saw using this song in the fall, the first two lines were coupled with Basijis beating people in the street. The second set of lines were coupled with protesters. The third set was coupled with images of Ahmadinejad and Khamenei. The last set was once again protesters.