After yet another one-night "Election Night" hiatus, the Wrap returns, filled to the brim with numbers and news...
THE U.S. SENATE
AZ-Sen: Dueling Internals In the Hot GOP Primary
It is a regular internal poll-a-palooza in the Wrap tonight. In addition to a Mark Kirk internal (more on this one later), both players in the hot Arizona Republican Senate primary released internal polls over the last few days. The incumbent, Senator John McCain claims a twenty-nine point lead for the incumbent (59-30), while the challenger (former Congressman J.D. Hayworth) claims the lead is only sixteen points (49-33). The one thing that becomes pretty evident: it would seem that Rasmussen's late '09 poll showing a race within the margin of error seems to have missed the fairway, since it is hard to find a clear event or incident during the holidays that would send GOP voters scurrying back to McCain (and, no, I tend to doubt the warm embrace of Sarah Palin would provide a 20-point swing).
AR-Sen: New Poll, More Trauma For Blanche Lincoln
Coming on the heels of Monday's devastating PPP poll (PDF) showing her down double-digits to all GOP comers, Rasmussen came out the following day and confirmed the numbers. Lincoln trails by margins ranging from 14-19 points, with the five GOP candidates all holding 50% or more in trial heats.
IL-Sen: Kirk Does Not Take Long To Flog Internal Polling
That was quick! The confetti hadn't even been swept up from the victory parties in last night's Illinois primaries when newly minted GOP nominee Mark Kirk began hyping an internal poll claiming a double digit lead over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias (47-35). Monster grain of salt: the poll claims that Obama's approval spread in his home state is 51/45.
IN-Sen: GOP Blasts To The Past for A First-Tier Candidate
This one caught everyone absolutely flat-footed. While all eyes were on the returns from Illinois, the news broke that former U.S. Senator Dan Coats, whose 1998 Senate retirement paved the way for Evan Bayh's election, would now challenge Bayh for re-election this year. There are, of course, a couple of complications for Coats. One is that he has lived in Virginia for years. The other is that he is going to have to play fundraising catch-up, and fast. Bayh is sitting on one of the biggest warchests in the Congress, with over $ 13 million in the kitty.
KS-Sen: GOP Primary Gets Ugly Amid New Polling Data
The mini "Clash of the Titans" primary in Kansas to replace outgoing Senator Sam Brownback is getting a little personal. Congressman Todd Tiahrt is blasting fellow GOP Congressman Jerry Moran, claiming that Moran is "attacking" Tiahrt's family. The accusation is more than a little bit of a stretch. Moran's actual attack was on Tihart living in northern Virginia, rather than maintaining his primary home in Kansas. Tiahrt turned that into a personal affront by arguing that since he moved his family to Virginia in order to keep the family together while he served in Congress, Moran was attacking his family values. Meanwhile, SUSA continued their semi-regular practice of polling the race, and they find Moran leading Tiahrt by seven points (40-33). That marks an improvement for Moran, who only led Tiahrt by three points a few months back.
MD-Sen: Former GOP State Legislator Gunning For Mikulski
The third Republican to confirm as a candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010 is also, arguably, the most viable candidate. Carmen Amedori, a former state delegate, announced earlier this week that she will challenge longtime Sen. Barbara Mikulski. It will be, to put it charitably, an uphill slog: Mikulski has never been held under 60% of the vote since first getting elected to the Senate in 1986.
NY-Sen: Q Poll Gives Gillibrand Primary and General Leads
In the latest of a minor flurry of polls out of the Empire State, freshman Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has sizeable leads in both the primary and general elections, according to new numbers from Quinnipiac. In the primary, Gillibrand leads Harold Ford 36-18, with Jonathan Tasini well behind at 4%. In the general, Gillibrand had a huge lead over the only declared GOP candidate, Bruce Blakeman (44-27). Undecided is the big winner in a contest with Ford and Blakeman, with Ford leading 35-26. Meanwhile, another Republican might be getting into the game, with the news that former Congressman and perennial candidate Joe DioGuardi is thinking about getting into the race. DioGuardi, 69, served in Congress for two terms way back in the 1980s, and is a favorite of the Conservative and Right To Life Parties.
ND-Sen: Dems Have A Candidate, But Not Their Favored Candidate (Yet)
While North Dakota Democrats wait patiently for Heidi Heitkamp to make a decision to jump into the open Senate race, they managed to land a pretty decent fallback position. State Senator Tracy Potter will announce a candidacy this week. Potter would be the first Democrat of note to challenge the seat, a challenge which will include the arduous task of trying to knock off incumbent Governor John Hoeven, who has already announced a Senate bid.
WI-Sen: Did Thompson Just Tip His Hand?
Despite the best hopes of Republicans, and the best efforts of Rasmussen (who curiously polled the race last week), it looks less and less likely that former Governor Tommy Thompson will not be challenging Democratic Senator Russ Feingold. Thompson just signed on to serve as a venture capital advisor for Peak Ridge Capital Group. Working in that particular capacity, it would seem, will preclude Thompson for running for office at the same time (and politically speaking, probably wouldn't be the most bankable side job to grab for a prospective candidate).
THE U.S. HOUSE
CA-12: Speier Decides To Stay In House, After All
After a boomlet of stories that rookie Congressman Jackie Speier was eyeing the job of California Attorney General, Speier finally pulled the plug on such speculation by announcing that she would, in fact, run for re-election. Speier took office in early 2008 upon the death of longtime Democratic Congressman Tom Lantos.
CT-02: Is Simmons About To Pull A Gerlach?
This could get very interesting. A definite hedge by former Congressman Rob Simmons has some folks speculating that he will walk from the Senate race (where his chances of winning dropped precipitously with the Dodd exit) and run instead in his old Congressional district. Simmons was run from office narrowly in 2006 by current Democratic incumbent Joe Courtney.
FL-08: A Lot of GOP Movement This Week In Grayson Seat
A lot of dominoes have fallen since the last edition of the Wrap in central Florida's 8th district, the home of Democratic freshman Alan Grayson. Bruce O'Donoghue, who spurned the NRCC late last year, had a change of heart and elected to run against Grayson. Well-funded young Republican Armando Gutierrez, meanwhile, went the other direction, dropping his bid. O'Donoghue might have come a little late to the party, however, as a couple of prominent GOPers have rallied around the other main Republican in the field, state legislator Kurt Kelly.
FL-19: Parties Choose Candidates For Special Election
The general election field is now full in South Florida, as an April special election will fill the seat once occupied by Robert Wexler. It looks like Democrat Ted Deutch (who won his primary easily) will take on Republican Ed Lynch (who won his primary barely). The district is heavily Democratic, having gone for Barack Obama and John Kerry by identical lopsided margins (66-34).
NJ-07: Democrats Land Candidate Against GOP Freshman
One somewhat vulnerable GOP freshman that has largely escaped scrutiny from the Democratic Party in this cycle has been New Jersey rookie Rep. Leonard Lance. That changed this week with the announcement that former Hill Staffer Ed Potosnak will enter the race on the Democratic side. Lance scored a surprisingly wide victory in 2008 over Linda Stender in order to hold the seat once held by Rep. Mike Ferguson.
RACE FOR THE HOUSE: SSP Looks At Who Is At Risk
Finally, in House news, a feature over at Swing State Project that is very much worth worth a read. Crisitunity over at SSP had done his third edition of the "House Vulnerability Index", which seeks to quantify which Democratic and Republican House seats are in the gravest danger. If you are a horserace junkie, it is very much worth checking out.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
IL-Gov: The Numbers Are (Somewhat) Officially In!
The marathon primaries for the gubernatorial nominations in Illinois are finally over, with the last handful of precincts reporting this afternoon from Cook County. In a unique twist, both races were close enough to ensure that every last precinct needed to be in the mix. On the Democratic side, incumbent Governor Pat Quinn hung onto an 8000 vote victory over state Comptroller Dan Hynes. While President Obama called Quinn to offer congratulations, Hynes had not conceded as of earlier this evening. Meanwhile, a recount is all but certain on the Republican side, where state Senator Bill Brady scored a mild upset by apparently defeating a crowded field for the nomination. The margin over state Senator Kirk Dillard, out of around 750,000 voters, was a mere 406 votes.
MN-Gov: Some Party Decision Making Going On In Minny, As Well
In a decision-making process that is a bit more circuitous than that of Illinois, Minnesota voters headed out to caucus last night. On the Democratic side, the results have a bit less meaning, since one of the frontrunners (former Senator Mark Dayton) eschewed the process. That said, Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak holds a two-point lead on the DFL (Democratic-Farmer-Labor) side over Margaret Anderson-Kelliher. On the GOP side, it was a pretty clear win for state legislator Marty Seifert, as he beat fellow legislator Tom Emmer by double digits. Side note--if you are wondering why I used the word "lead" rather than "win" for the Democratic caucuses, the reason is simple--somehow, the Secretary of State is reporting that only 82% of Democratic caucuses have reported their totals, even though the caucuses were last night.
NY-Gov: Cuomo Up Big In Primary and General Elections
The Quinnipiac poll alluded to in the Senate section also surveyed the landscape of the governor's race. The results are predictable: state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo leads easily in both the primary and general elections. In the primary, Cuomo's lead over incumbent Governor David Paterson sits at just a shade over 30 points (55-23). His lead over presumptive GOP nominee Rick Lazio is an identical margin (57-25). Lazio and Paterson are deadlocked, with Lazio leading by a point (40-39).
TX-Gov: Ras Poll Says GOP Runoff Possible, As Is Close General Elex
An interesting set of numbers out from Rasmussen today in the Lone Star State. In the much anticipated GOP primary for Governor, an ascending teabagger challenge from Debra Medina has made it increasingly likely that the GOP nomination will have to be settled by runoff. Incumbent Governor Rick Perry leads with 44%, with Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison (29%) and Medina (16%) trailing behind. Also, in interesting news, Democrat Bill White is now making up a little ground on the GOP frontrunner. In a general election poll of the same race, Perry only leads White by nine points (48-39). Hutchison does a little bit better (49-36), while Medina does considerably worse (41-38).