'Tis the first edition of the Wrap for March, but on this first day of the month, it kinda feels like the whole day on the Front Page was "wrap-worthy". We had the exciting news of Arkansas Lt. Governor Bill Halter getting into the game on the Senate side, and the exciting news of Harold Ford Jr. getting out of the game on the Senate side. All this to cap off a four-day period where we also saw New York Governor David Paterson make his long anticipated march to the exits.
In short, a very busy time to go hiking on the ole campaign trail (as opposed to the Applachian Trail where, well...y'know...).
THE U.S. SENATE
MD-Sen: Mikulski Fine For Another Term, Says Rasmussen
Having polled the gubernatorial race (and staked the Democratic incumbent to a six-point lead), Rasmussen felt the need to poll the Senate race as well. With all the GOP hopefuls relegated to "some dude" status ("some dude": an homage to my friends at Swing State Project), Ras decided to go the "Generic Republican" route. No matter--Mikulski has a nearly twenty-point edge (54-36) over the G.R. Actually, while 54% might seem a little low (and would be the lowest percentage of her career), it is similar to what Clarus Research got in their polling back in November.
NV-Sen: Second Poll Confirms Possible Tea Party Salvation for Reid
Could the "Tea Party" be the key to electoral resurrection for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid? New numbers from Mason Dixon seem to suggest just that. Confirming something found in a Public Opinion Strategies poll highlighted on the Wrap a couple of weeks back, this new M-D poll finds that, when matched in head-to-heads against the three leading GOP candidates (Sue Lowden, Danny Tarkanian, and Sharron Angle), Reid trails by margins ranging from 2 to 13 points. However, when the race is between Reid, a generic Republican, and a generic "Tea Party" candidate, Reid actually moves into a four-point lead (36-32, with 18% for the faceless teabagger). Not everyone is buying the teabagger salvation theory: pundit Stuart Rothenberg throws a pitcher of cold water on that meme today, and sounds particularly huffy in doing so, I must add.
OK-Sen: Coburn Leads Even Popular Governor, Says Rasmussen
Rasmussen seems to only poll unannounced candidates for two reasons: to coax Republicans INTO running and to dissuade Democrats FROM running. This poll, released tonight, seems to be the latter. Ras has incumbent Senator Tom Coburn leading the state's popular Democratic Governor, Brad Henry, by twelve points (52-40). Henry, of course, is not a candidate for the Senate, and has made little noise about being one.
WI-Sen: Thompson Now Leaning Towards A Senate Bid?
One of Rasmussen's past recruiting-via-polling targets, Wisconsin Senator Tommy Thompson, might be edging towards a Senate bid. Thompson is apparently letting folks know he is considering it. Self-funding developer Terrence Wall is already in the race, and he might not get out, given the huge teabagger opening Thompson opened up for him last year:
Potentially more damaging are Thompson’s comments in October, when he became one of only a handful of prominent Republicans to shower praise on the Democratic health care bill produced by the Senate.
The former Bush administration official even went so far as to issue a joint statement with former House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt praising the Senate Finance Committee’s legislation as "another important step toward achieving the goal of health care reform this year," adding that "failure to reach an agreement on health reform this year is not an acceptable option."
Wall, for his part, is flogging an internal poll that has him trailing Senator Russ Feingold by just seven points (46-39). Since the Thompson rumors have been bubbling for some time, it would seem that Wall has little interest in stepping side for the former Governor.
THE U.S. HOUSE
AL-02: Embattled Democrat Looks Solid In Internal Polling
One of the more regular comments from those predicting GOP hegemony in the 2010 election cycle centers on the notion that if Democrats had any internal polling that contradicted the idea that the sky was falling, they'd release it. Well, here you go. Bobby Bright, who is a Democrat representing the uber-conservative Wiregrass region of Alabama, has leads over his three likely GOP rivals ranging from 24-32 points, according to new numbers from Anzalone-Liszt. In an interesting quirk, one of those Republicans (local school board member Stephanie Bell) actually backed the Democratic internal data up, offering that the numbers were similar to others she had heard.
GA-07: Another GOPer To Leave House As Linder Elects To Walk
John Linder, who has served in the House since 1992, and represents the Atlanta suburbs to the north and east of the city, elected to retire this weekend rather than seek a tenth term in the House. The district is an interesting one: one of the most Republican in the nation in 2004 (Bush 70-30), it became dramatically more competitive in 2008, with John McCain winning here by a solid-but-smaller margin of 60-39. The action here is likely to be on the GOP side, however, as even a 21-point generic edge will probably preclude any Democrat from making a serious play here.
GA-09: Add Another Election To The Cycle, As Deal Resigns
With special elections to replace Democrats looming in Florida, Hawaii and Pennsylvania, the GOP is now confronted with a special election defense of one of their seats as well. In a move that was unexpected, but far from shocking, Nathan Deal resigned from the U.S. Congress in order to devote full attention to his bid for Governor, where he has run a distant second thus far to state insurance Commissioner John Oxendine. Deal's seat is a veritable hotbed of right-wing Republicanism, a place where Barack Obama scored a mere 24% of the vote in 2008. Needless to say, this one is likely to stay off of the DCCC's target list.
KS-03: Moores' Looking to Keep It In the Family?
This would be a unique situation, and a welcome break for Democrats desperately looking for a candidate in the open Kansas 3rd district. The outgoing Congressman, Dennis Moore (who is retiring after five terms in Congress), seemed to tease this weekend at a Democratic function that his wife, Stephene, might be interested in making a bid, telling those present to "stay tuned." Democrats have absolutely struck out in seeking a top-tier candidate for the seat, so Moore's words could be music to the ears of local Democrats. 2008 nominee Nick Jordan is the likely frontrunner for the GOP in the race.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
KS-Gov: Brownback Holds Early Lead To Flip Kansas for GOP
With outgoing Democratic Governor Mark Parkinson electing not to seek re-election, the GOP has been a heavy favorite throughout to claim the governor's mansion, propelled by popular Senator Sam Brownback's decision to trade in his Senate ID for the title of Governor. In that context, this Rasmussen poll is actually a touch underwhelming for the GOP. Brownback enjoys a solid lead over relatively new Democratic candidate Steve Holland, but Brownback is held to just 55% of the vote in doing so (55-33). Holland is a little-known state legislator, and his numbers are bound to improve somewhat as he actually forges a campaign. In a "what might have been" data point for the Dems, Governor Parkinson actually has (in this environment) extraordinarily high job approval. Indeed, his 58/34 approval spread is equal to the favorabilities for Brownback.
MI-Gov: New EPIC-MRA Numbers Insist GOP Has Inside Track
In what has to be interpreted as a sign of both voter anger and continued frustration at the economic doldrums that have crippled the state of Michigan, the GOP is poised to regain the state's governors mansion, according to a new poll by respected local pollsters EPIC-MRA. The pollsters find that either state Attorney General Mike Cox or conservative GOP Congressman Peter Hoekstra hold single-digit advantages over Democratic hopefuls Andy Dillon and Dan Kildee. Both Dillon (the speaker of the Michigan House of Reps) or Kildee (the son nephew of longtime Congressman Dale Kildee) lead the Democratic primary field, though undecided is the big winner there (almost three-fifths of voters don't have a preference). Hoekstra is slightly more vulnerable to a Democratic surge, as he presently leads the two Dems by just four points (41-37 in both cases). Cox leads both Dillon (43-36) and Kildee (46-37) by slightly larger margins. Interestingly, this seems to be more of a case of Granholm fatigue than Obama fatigue, the President maintains a respectable 53/42 spread in the poll.
TX-Gov: Early Numbers Hint At Large Turnout In Lone Star State
Early voting stats from the Lone Star State seem to hint that turnout for tomorrow's primary elections in Texas will be fairly robust. A total of nearly a half a million voters have already cast ballots in the primaries, nearly double the total that voted early in the 2006 midterm primaries. In Travis County (home to the capital city of Austin), the numbers were even more impressive, as a total of 36,000 early votes were cast. That was nearly the triple the amount of votes that were cast during early voting in 2006.