Gallup is telling us we've just set a series record (for them) as far as their survey of
non-seasonally adjusted -- straight-up, "unadjusted" survey of 20,000 respondents -- joblessness and underemployed (combined) is concerned. Their numbers: 10.3% unemployed plus 9.7% underemployed, adds up to 20%, or 1 in 5 Americans currently,
still, in economic hell.
Gallup's Unemployment and Underemployment Survey hit a 2010 and series high today.
Underemployment At Record 20% According To Gallup
Zero Hedge
Tyler Durden on 03/22/2010 09:04 -0500
...This is obviously worse compared to both the beginning of the year (19.5%) and February (19.8%). Unlike the Dept of Labor's arcane voodoo which lately is based more on executive confidential memos and snowfall observations, Gallup's underemployment measure is based on more than 20,000 phone interviews collected over a 30-day period and reported daily. Furthermore "Gallup's results are not seasonally adjusted and tend to be a precursor of government reports by approximately two weeks." We wonder if the abnormally hot March weather will used as an excuse for a deterioraiton in the most recent NFP numbers.
From Gallup...
A summary of underemployment trends as per Gallup: LINK TO CHART HERE.
A profiling of the two components of the Underemployment index indicate that while Gallup's unemployment rate declined marginally from February and was at 10.3%, the percentage of those emplpoyed part time and seeking full time work surged to 9.7%.
CHART: UNDEREMPLOYMENT COMPONENTS.
Focus on Underemployment, Not Unemployment
--SNIP--
...Gallup's mid-March unemployment rate is likely indicative of the not-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate the government will release in April, as is Gallup's broader underemployment rate.
The danger associated with focusing on unemployment is reflected by the recent statement of Morgan Stanley economists suggesting that the U.S. may add as many as 300,000 jobs in March owing to an improvement in the weather, economic growth, and the government's hiring of temporary census workers. If anything close to this number of new jobs is announced by the government in early April, there is likely to be an enthusiastic, possibly even celebratory, response. Government officials are liable to tout the continued benefits of last year's stimulus and the future benefits of the new jobs bill. Many Wall Streeters will likely argue that the surge in jobs is simply another confirmation of the strength of the overall economic recovery.
However, before policymakers celebrate too much, they should note Gallup's recent findings involving its new, more inclusive measure of underemployment...
--SNIP--
...It is also often suggested that a growth in part-time jobs may indicate future growth in full-time work -- that companies hire part-time workers before committing to hiring new full-time employees. While this is sometimes the case, it may not be so at this point in the U.S. economy: Gallup data show that one in three part-time employees who are wanting full-time work are currently "hopeful" about finding a full-time job in the next 30 days -- not much of an endorsement of the idea that today's new part-time work will progress to full-time jobs...
Bold type is diarist's emphasis.
Gallup closes out their review discussing Census Bureau jobs, reminding us that "...they do not represent the kind of job creation needed for a sustainable economic recovery."
This post speaks for itself, margin-of-error...or not.