Over at
Col. Pat Lang's blog an old friend and colleague, Dale Davis, brings up some good points, or at least good points of view to ponder. He first makes the important distinction between the Sunni and the Jihadi; one the your typical righty and the MSM never hit on (due to the ignorance of average Americans [IMO]). But then he makes to point that the two entities, while united now, have disparate goals that will surface in the future.
boing!
-The Jihadists are idealists who want to purify and unify the Islamic world beginning with Iraq.
-The motivations of the Sunni are more self-centered, simply seeking to regain their status as the dominant sect and short of that guarantee the best deal possible in any compromise.
So the Jihadists want us out, while the Sunni's need us to stay; else they get overrun by the Shi'a majority primed with newfound freedom and power.
So do the Sunni's not realize that they need the US to stay in Iraq and support their wants of more representation and authority in the new government? Or is there a united insurgency that will fight the coalition and eventually the Shi'a and Kurdish militias and possibly Iran, to the last man?
The entire post by Dale Davis
Some thoughts on withdrawal as a strategy for success in Iraq.
My academic experience compels me to begin with a definition of success. Two and half years ago the definition of success in Iraq would have been a stable, secular, ethnically and religiously diverse government, at peace with its neighbors, leading a rejuvenated nation, powered by a vibrant economy, driven by one of the most educated people in the region - a strong ally of the US and a powerful example of democracy for the broader region. Today, the best success we can hope for is a gradually diminishing insurgency, limited in its scope and divided in its goals, suppressed (perhaps a bit brutally) by a nominally secular yet Shi'a dominated and Iranian influenced government that is not totally opposed to every US policy goal in the region.
If we begin with this vastly different understanding of the realm of possibility then a carefully executed withdrawal strategy becomes increasingly eloquent. It is so because it directly addresses the centre of gravity of the insurgency.
Critical Assumption: Even if the US withdraws the insurgency cannot win a military victory. It will not displace the Shia dominated government or any of its successors. Many would argue that withdrawal will result in Iraq being taken over by Pan-Islamist Wahhabi forces under the leadership of Bin Laden and Zarqawi. Or perhaps a return of the Baathists to power. Neither of these scenarios is remotely possible. The Shi'a, (65% of the Iraqi population) having tasted both freedom and power, with the latter being the more intoxicating, will never allow the their mortal enemies - the Sunni Jihadists to come to power. Even, if they didn't have the capability to stop the emergence of an Iraqi Taliban (which they do), their friends in Iran would put an end to such a threat in short order. Likewise, any attempt to return the "old guard" to power would be crushed with certainty.
The Insurgency's Critical Vulnerability
The insurgency is a Sunni tribal revolt, seeking as its primary goal the protection and restoration of Sunni dominance over the Iraqi socio-economic and political system. This tribal revolt has been joined by the forces of global jihad due to a temporary convergence of interests - the desire to remove US and Multi-national forces. In fact, it is the very presence of these forces, especially the US forces that catalyzes both the active and passive support for the insurgency both within Iraq's Sunni community and in the broader Sunni-Islamic world. Removal of this catalyst will quickly expose the fractious nature of the Sunni -Jihadi alliance and greatly diminish popular support for the insurgency, especially for the Jihadi cause. This is due to the distinct divergence in the interests between Jihadists and Sunnis. The Jihadists are idealists who want to purify and unify the Islamic world beginning with Iraq. The motivations of the Sunni are more self-centered, simply seeking to regain their status as the dominant sect and short of that guarantee the best deal possible in any compromise. Herein lies the insurgency's critical vulnerability. While the Jihadists seek the complete and humiliating defeat of the US, the Sunnis actually require US influence over the current government to protect their interests (although they may not yet realize it). If the US withdraws who will guarantee a role and protection of status for the Sunni minority from a possibly more radical Shi'a dominated government? By threatening withdrawal the US places the forces of insurgency on the horns of a dilemma. Continued violent resistance after a US withdrawal removes the pan-Arab, pan-Islamic fig leaf from the insurgency. It becomes publically what it already is - a religious-ethnic civil war - something the Jihadists seek but the more pragmatic Sunni will realize is not in their interests. Do the Sunni continue their alliance with the Jihadists or do they recognize their lot could become much worse if they continue to reject cooperation? Without the restraining and protective US presence the Shi'a dominated government will likely take quite aggressive action to suppress the insurgency.
How To Do It
Begin with statements like those uttered recently by Rumsfeld, Jaafari and Casey. "We will withdraw soon." Get the Sunni leadership thinking about the real possibilities of what life might be like after a US withdrawal. If they don't get the picture at first then give them a taste of it - turn the security of certain critical Sunni areas over to the Shi'a militias. Meanwhile, increase the intensity and quality of training for Iraqi security forces. Move as rapidly as possible to an situation where the US ground combat presence is mainly an advisory role a la El Salvador while continuing to provide combat support (artillery, air support, logistics, etc). (Another reason to withdraw is the Iraqi security forces will always be reluctant to engage if the Americans continue to do the heavy lifting).