Two days ago the annual Social Security report came out and it moved the 'Trust Fund depleted' date from 2018 to 2017. This was surprising -- many economic trends were stronger in 2004, making lots of us expect the projection to move outward instead of inward.
Bob Brigham of There is No Crisis posted a diary on this, charging that the books had been deliberately cooked and asking for help finding the burn marks. I was among those who said, "Not so fast, no need to go that far."
Maybe I was wrong...
Brad DeLong dug deeper, and found that the SSA changed its policy for calculating productivity numbers last year. (Scroll down to "Justifications for the Long-Run Productivity Growth Forecasts in the Trustees' Reports").
The result is, projecting a productivity gain of 1.6% rather than 1.9%. That matters, big time (how big, I await other analysis.)
Josh Marshall, Dean Baker, and others seem to be on this, and we should hear more soon. But at the very least, the actuaries got some 'splainin to do...