(Note: Tommorow we'll cover the Democrats)
With the 2006 Senate races already underway, it's now time for me to start ranking them. While the actual election is still 20 months away, candidates and parties alike are getting started at an even faster rate than in 2004. My goal is to cover these races as best I can, ranking them in order of competitiveness for each party (i.e. how likely to be a pickup) and giving analysis to each one. With that in mind, here's my first edition of the Senate races of 2006:
Current Balance: 55R, 44D, 1I
Seats up for election: 17 D, 15R, 1 I
(See extended entry for the actual races)
Republican Seats
1)Rhode Island (GOP Incumbent, Lincoln Chafee) - The new Democratic aggressiveness in Congress and in the DNC is bad news for liberal Republican Lincoln Chafee. The son of a popular late Senator, he was appointed to the seat in 1999 when his father died and was elected easily in 2000 with 57% of the vote. However, Chafee has marked up a rather unimpressive record, and has drawn fire from the conservatives in his state for voting against the Iraq War resolution and for his support for Social Security. Now, the Democrats, eager to pick up ground in the Senate, are targeting Chafee big-time, and Cranston Mayor Stephen Lafferty, a conservative, is looking at a primary challenge to Chafee. Either way, Chafee's in big trouble.
The strongest Democratic candidate is Congressman Jim Langevin, who is seriously considering a bid at the behest of the DSCC, led by New Yorker Chuck Schumer. Langevin, elected easily in 2000 is one of Rhode Island's most popular elected officials, and he has compiled an impressive record in Congress, including active efforts in the prescription drug and Medicare fields. Before Congress he was a progressive Secretary of State, helping to make Rhode Island one of the more technology-oriented and efficient election areas of the country. Langevin is pro-life, but in Rhode Island there is a surprisingly strong contingent of pro-lifers in both parties. For example, in the 2002 Democratic gubernatorial primary, 61% of voters backed a pro-life candidate, although pro-choice Myrth York eked out a primary win. Langevin leads Chafee by an impressive 41-27 margin in a recent Brown University poll, making him the likely next Senator from Rhode Island should he run.
The other major Democrat, one who is already running is Secretary of State Matt Brown. Brown, who ousted a GOP incumbent in 2002 is 32, and has been long marked for higher office. However, many Rhode Islanders are still unaware of him, as his name ID is far lower than Langevin's. In the same Brown University poll, Chafee led Brown by a 39-25 margin-still very weak for an incumbent, but better than against Langevin. All the same, there's little doubt that should Brown end up being the nominee (as he would be if Langevin declines to run) that with increased name ID that he'd catch up, and probably take the lead over Chafee. Chafee does indeed face a uphill bid for reelection, and while he probably won't switch parties, retirement does remain an option. LEANS DEMOCRATIC
2)Pennsylvania (Incumbent Republican Rick Santorum)- If Chafee's seat is already on the road to a Democratic pickup, Santorum's seat hangs in the balance. The religious conservative won in 2000 against a weak Democratic candidate in Ron Klink with 52%, but his recent series of faux-pas and controversial episodes have left him vulnerable. While Keystoners give Santorum a 52% approval rating, they're less supportive of his reelection chances. For those two reasons, the Democrats, nationwide and statewide are gunning for Santorum. No Democrats has won a Senate seat for six years in Pennsylvania since Joseph Clark in 1962, but that could very well change this year.
The strongest Democratic candidate at this point appears to be State Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr. The son of one of Pennsylvania's most popular Governors, Casey was elected as State Treasurer in a landslide (63-36%) in 2004 after serving as State Auditor. He now holds the record for the greatest vote margin for a Democrat in the state, and 2nd overall only to the late US Senator John Heinz III. At first, it seemed as if Casey would take a pass, so that he could run for his dad's job in 2010 when Democrat Ed Rendell retires. However, thanks to offers of massive aid and support from national and state Democrats Casey is reconsidering his options. He's met with DSCC and DNC leaders in Washington but, as of this moment, hasn't made up his mind. A new Quinnipiac Poll shows Casey leading Santorum by a 46-41 margin, with Casey's favorable ratings higher than Santorum's (as well as having far fewer negatives).
Should Casey not run, the likeliest Democratic nominee would be his predecessor at the Treasury, Barbara Hafer. A former Republican, Hafer switched to the Democrats in December 2003. While a popular official, she lacks the iconic reputation of the Casey family and would have to work hard at fundraising. She trails Santorum 47-39 in the Quinnipiac poll-not bad, but clearly leaving work to do. Other potential Democrats in a Casey-less race are State Democratic Chair T.J. Rooney, State EPA Director Kathleen McGinty and 2004 Senate nominee Joe Hoeffel.
One Democrat is already running-University of the Arts History Professor Chuck Pennacchio. He not only is extremely well-versed and capable in academia, but also in politics. He was deputy campaign manager to Tim Wirth's upset US Senate win in 1986 in Colorado, where his efforts in the grassroots department were key. Afterwards, he commanded Paul Simon's Iowa field operations in the 1988 Democratic primaries, where he helped Simon finish a close second to Dick Gephardt. He also worked for Senator Allen Cranston (D-CA) and Congressman Ron Dellums on Capitol Hill. Pennacchio is running an aggressive grassroots and internet campaign, led by Tim Tagaris, one of my fellow bloggers. While his chances of beating Santorum might seem slim, they said the same thing about Paul Wellstone-he, too, was a campaign activist and college professor.
All in all, Santorum will have a tough reelection fight ahead of him. While he certainly cannot be counted out, due to his combative nature and his dedicated conservative base, the Democrats will be throwing everything they can at him, making the Keystone State one of the top Senate states in 2006. TOSSUP
3)Montana (Incumbent Republican Conrad Burns)- If there was a bright spot for Democrats in 2004, it was in Montana, where the Big Sky Democrats kicked some serious butt. By the time the election was over, the Governorship and both State Houses were in Democratic hands, and that leaves Senator Conrad Burns in a precarious position. While Burns is popular, so are the Democrats, led by popular Governor Brian Schweitzer, and the Democrats want to take Burns out. When Schweitzer ran against the incumbent in 2000 he nearly unseated Burns, a result that would have been a massive upset. Burns may not be up for another challenge-rumor has it that he's looking for his golden parachute. Even if he does run, look for a competitive race here.
The leading Democrats who are interested in the seat are Attorney General Mike McGrath and State Senate Majority Leader John Tester. Both men are popular elected officials, and both are pro-choice moderates, making them more in line with small-L Montana then the doctrinaire conservative Burns. McGrath is more low-key, while Tester is considered more colorful- he's known for wearing a cowboy hat and boots to match. Either one would give Burns a tight race, but whether they would have enough to topple the incumbent remains a key question. Of course, if Burns decides to pack it in then either one would have a good shot at a pickup. They would be running against Congressman Denny Rehberg in that situation, as the At-large Rep would almost certainly jump in to succeed Burns. While that race would be a tossup, the fact that it would be a midterm election helps the Democrats greatly. For now, pending on Burns' decision, LEANS REPUBLICAN
4)Tennessee (Open Seat) - With Majority Leader Bill Frist running for President in 2008, his seat will be open in 2006, leaving a crowded field for the Republicans and a smaller one for the Democrats. With ex-Congressmen Van Hilleary and Ed Bryant joining Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker and possibly State Representative Beth Harwell in the GOP primary, expect the mud to be flying as the moderate Corker (he's pro-choice, for example) gets attacked by his two (or three) opponents.
For the Democrats, the likeliest nominee is Congressman Harold Ford, Jr. The 34-year old Memphis Democrat is the son of a popular ex-Congressman himself, but faces two problems- one is his race (Ford is black), the other is his uncle. The embarrassing episode involving State Senator John Ford (he's kept two families, and lives with both at different times) could very well damage his nephew's Senate chances, and I guarantee the GOP will try to take advantage of the situation. Another Democrat, State Senator Rosalind Kurita is also running-she's a strong fundraiser and pretty much as conservative as Ford. However while she doesn't have either of Ford's negatives, she lacks his name ID. This race will remain rather fluid until the candidates start campaigning actively, but for now, this seat, like the state, LEANS REPUBLICAN.
5)Virginia (Incumbent Republican George Allen)- While on the surface it would appear that freshman Republican Allen is in good shape, appearances could be deceiving. After all, he only won by 4% in 2000 over damaged-goods Senator Chuck Robb and even that was due mostly to Bush's 8% win in the state. His popularity is based primarily on his performance as Governor a decade ago and his father's reputation as the Washington Redskins football coach. A strong Democrat, I feel, could be very competitive against the would-be Presidential hopeful. This is confirmed by a recent poll done by Emerson College that shows Allen trailing popular Governor Mark Warner by a 48-41 margin. While Warner hasn't made up his mind as to his political future, with this type of poll out there he may well decided not to run for President and go for the Senate instead. Should Warner not run, the seat would lean towards Allen, but should Democratic Lt. Governor Tim Kaine lose the 2005 Governor's race he too would make a strong challenger. Another possibility is Retired Army General Claudia Kennedy, who was planning to run in 2002 until Senator John Warner announced he would run again. TOSSUP WITH MARK WARNER, LIKELY REPUBLICAN WITHOUT
6)Arizona (Incumbent Republican Jon Kyl) - Arizona may feature an interesting Senate race in 2006. With incumbent Jon Kyl likely to run again (violating his self-imposed term limit of two), the Democrats have found a strong candidate to run against him-their own Chairman. State Party leader Jim Pederson, a wealthy businessman who led the nonpartisan redistricting efforts in Arizona back in 2000 is likely to run for the seat, and would make a good candidate. Kyl is popular for the most part, but is completely shadowed by beloved Republican John McCain, and Kyl draws a meager 49% approval rating in a recent poll. Not surprisingly, 22% of the poll's respondents didn't know enough about Kyl to approve or disapprove, leaving a good opportunity for Pederson to make Kyl look like a GOP rubberstamp. And With Governor Napolitano up for reelection in 2006 and likely to win, Pederson could very well have a Democratic ticket to run on that could lead to the first Democratic Governorship -Senate pairing since Bruce Babbitt and Dennis DeConcini in the 1980's. This race will bear watching. For now, LIKELY REPUBLICAN
7)Texas (Potential Open Seat, Kay Bailey Hutchison) - Under normal circumstances, this seat would be safely Republican. After all, this is Texas. However, 2006 is shaping up as anything, but normal for Lone Star Republicans, as a bitter gubernatorial primary looks likely. And one of the two challengers to GOP Governor Rick Perry would be Hutchison. With a 72% approval rating, KBH is unbeatable in her Senate, but getting by a gubernatorial race in a conservative state with a moderate record isn't going to be as easy. Nonetheless, Hutchison is getting weary of DC, according to my sources, and is leaning towards a run for Governor instead, taking on Perry and possibly Comptroller Kathleen Strayhorn. That would leave Hutchison's seat open, and a scramble would likely ensue for the GOP. Possible GOP candidates would include Congressmen Henry Bonilla, Joe Barton and Pete Sessions, Congresswoman Kay Bailey Granger, AG Greg Abbott and Lt. Governor David Dewhurst. Bonilla is already attempting to line up support in the event on an open seat (I give it an 80% chance right now of happening), but don't expect the GOP to avoid a primary in an open race.
As for the Democrats, they already have a candidate in the race-attorney and Democratic activist Barbara Ann Radnofsky. Radnofsky has been running since early January, and already has raised over $200,000 for her campaign as of early February. Due to the paucity of Democratic candidates in the state, it looks very likely that Radnofsky will be the Democratic nominee, Hutchison or no. Ron Kirk, the 2002 nominee has joined Radnofsky's law firm, making it very unlikely that he will run, while Martin Frost and Henry Cisneros are unlikely to pull the trigger either. Don't sell Radnofsky short, either, in a open race-the moderate Houstonian has been doing very well with conservative Democrats due to her expertise on the Dead Sea Scrolls and her willingness to discuss faith in politics. This race will bear watching, but not much else until Hutchison pulls the trigger on a likely gubernatorial run. SAFE GOP WITH KBH, LEANS GOP WITHOUT.
The other Senate races for the GOP look safe, but will bear watching for potential retirements and the like.
Tommorow I'll cover the Democratic-held seats, in order of competitiveness.