It's gotten precious little coverage here, but Blue Dog #1, Baron Hill of Indiana District 9, faces a revolt of his county party chairs, led by John Bottorff of Dubois County ... and they may very well unseat him in the Indiana primary.
Collecting the hide of this particular blue dog ought to be a top prioirty here, but the primary is nearly on us and the Bottorff campaign has gone to ground, counting on the wrath of the local organizers to carry the day. I thought I'd share what I know of the campaign ...
(UPDATE: non-snarky, curse free analysis of the vigorous response this has drawn from Baron Hill's people appears at the very bottom.)
First, a little about Indiana 9. It's the southeast corner of the state, twenty one counties, and the revolt isn't unanimous. The Indiana machine is still an arm of Evan Bayh and nobody wants to admit to being among those who knife Caesar, at least not until the blood stops flowing and the deed is done. I hear tell of fifteen or more county party chairs who've grown weary of Baron Hill's insolence ...
First among them is John Bottorff, the Dubios county Democratic party chair who actually stepped up to the task. When I first talked to John I wasn't sure if he was actually going to run. He talked about staying under a particular fund raising limit and truly doing it totally grassroots. He had very good calculus, which is not always the case with primary challengers, but that last bit deeply concerned me.
But then word got out, just a tiny bit. Phone calls were made. The chairs were angry, certainly, but there was a next telling piece of information: major donors were ... concerned. Hill's insolence had extended beyond just offending the ground troops - someone had a niece who couldn't get health care, or a brother who's business suffered from poor policy, or they themselves had been more than just slighted. Someone with money.
The campaign took off, and as all campaigns have there were growing pains. These races are intense, short term affairs, the primairies in particular, and personality conflicts can burn quick and bright. It's impolite to say who or why or when, but someone who'd done well in previous endeavors felt the need to do something different with their time not long after the group set forth. The remaining team rapidly settled into the business of putting an end to the career of a five term Congressman.
I am starting to suspect that all campaign managers have to take an advanced swearing class before they truly master the job. It's secret code - smoothly modulated phrases that hang in the air are to be learned and used when one is writing or speaking about the campaign. Lots of cursing? You're getting the straight facts on a topic and clear indications that what you're hearing is not for public consumption.
"I don't give a fuck" Four simple words, one a contraction, and you can have a whole conversation where this is the only response. Sir, should I publish this? "I don't give a fuck" (use your discretion). Sir, it's Mr. Mullethead on the line. "I don't give a fuck" (He's a lost cause, send him to voicemail.) And so it goes, with minor modifications. "I just don't give a fuck." (we need that job role filled, but I was gonna fire the little bastard anyway, and I'm relieved he got a new job). The variations are seemingly endless.
So, for this campaign, a thus far unprosecuted axe murderer slipped across the district border in the dead of night and began sharpening his tool for the hatchet job on Baron Hill. Then word got out, and the previously insolent Hill actually turned up for a county party dinner. True, he only stayed long enough to speak himself, then left when John took the podium, but that's a bit of reform for an out of touch Washington insider, eh? Mr Axe guy? He's a party operative, but, you guessed it, he just doesn't give a fuck if he makes Evan Bayh mad. Now he doesn't want to make him really mad, 'cause that's something else, but I gotta hold the lengthy explanation of when that modifier comes into play for another day.
I just truly hope that it's all too late for Baron Hill's reformed behavior. The party chairs don't give a fuck, if a lot of the voters decide it's time for a change, well, then change we shall have. Baron Hill doesn't seem to give a fuck if they're out of work and can't afford to see a doctor, and they might very well help to develop a deep, personal understanding of what it means to be unemployed.
So that's that. I'm not gonna shake the change cup at this late date - you want to donate, I mostly don't give a fuck; get over to ActBlue and find the campaign yourself. Radio buys are cheap in this market - maybe $35 for a 30 second spot. What I do strongly suggest is that if you speak passable South Indianaian, and you absolutely don't give a fuck if you make Evan Bayh really mad since you're not actually in Indiana, then scoot over to the campaign volunteer page, and on May 4th and make the lines at that phone bank glow a nice blue dog scorchin' orange.
Full Disclosure: They pay us to do some stuff on Twitter and ... wait for it ... I don't give a fuck if anybody knows about it.
To be clear, I am not against all blue dogs. For example, Hogan here, an Australian Blue Heeler who got covered at The Daily Puppy looks like he'd be all kinds of fun at the park with a frisbee.
(UPDATE:
So my phone rings, and it's Mr. Axe wielding guy. He gave me hell on some messaging stuff that's gonna show up elsewhere (regarding which he did give a fuck), then he cursed a lot and talked about district dynamics and I can't repeat that calculus, then he said ...
Progressives are the ones down here who turn out the vote, and we didn't turn out to get Baron re-elected so he could vote Republican. The ground troops are WAY more excited about getting this done than they are about holding their noses and simply preserving the seat.
If Baron's the candidate we lose the seat - people are upset enough to just stay home. John can carry the primary AND preserve this district as Democratic.
And he says my fact checking is all fucked up - it's twenty counties, not twenty one.
OK, a little less snarky here, since we've got some attempt at spin down below.
I own a slice of Progressive PST, I wrote the Twitter tools the Bottorff campaign is using, and they have a contract with us for social media support. I don't charge for diaries and it's pretty rare that I even take any tasking - something catches my eye and I chase after it. I felt like cursing a bit yesterday and this diary is the result.
Down below you see some classic incumbent response to a primary challenge - bringing up Baron Hill's record and his accomplishments, attempting to discredit Bottorff himself, questioning the support among the ground troops. It's professional, it's organized, it's nicely done. I appreciate art work like that, even if it's in opposition to my goals.
Unfortunately for Baron Hill, this response only validates what I've said here about John Bottorff. Incumbents do everything they can to avoid treating primary challengers as a serious threat; as soon as they do people start asking questions. We're well past that point here, so much so that we may very well replace a Blue Dog with a true Progressive, and if we do DailyKos will have been a big part of that victory.
So thank you, Baron Hill supporters, for the boost in name recognition for John, and please do keep talking so this stays on the rec list for as long as possible.