"We don't know how to stop this", an oil industry expert Matthew Simmons told the National Geographic today. He strongly doubted temporary efforts such as the "junk shot" to plug the well, calling it "a joke". Simmons said that the oil could flow until the reservoir is depleted.
Experts interviewed said that the BP spill could have effects similar to the Saudi spill of 1991, the largest oil spill ever.
"It was amazing to stand there and look across what used to be a salt marsh and it was all dead—not even a live crab," Hayes said.
Oil driven by strong south east winds hit the environmentally sensitive Terrebone barrier Islands, west of the delta, today.
Updated
Tar balls have reached Florida.
(On Wednesday) they found some small tar balls that were widely dispersed on West Ship Island, Horn Island and on the beach near Pass Christian," said Dan Turner, spokesman for Gov. Haley Barbour. "(Thursday) in Long beach area there were some very small tar balls."
Coast Guard Capt. Steven Poulin said today tar balls and "tar patties" had been found on Dauphin Island and Gulf Shores in Alabama and Perdido Key in Florida.
On May 12, oil was offshore of Louisiana's Terrebone barrier islands west of the Mississippi delta, but forecast to come ashore on May, 13.
The forecast for May 13 verified as oil came ashore in the Terrebone islands.
Tomorrow's forecast is for an onslaught of oil from Mobile Bay, Alabama to west of the Terrebone islands where it came ashore today. Winds and currents are forecast to drive the oil towards sensitive barrier islands and marshes over hundreds of miles of shoreline.
Even if the efforts to stop the oil gusher succeed this week, heavy damage will be done to environmentally sensitive areas over a large area of the delta this weekend if this forecast verifies.
Strong southeasterly winds and chaotic choppy waves and surf will make efforts to contain the spill almost impossible over the weekend. Moreover, because the oil has been treated with dispersants, soluble oil and dispersed oil will go under the booms even if they are used as effectively as possible. Dispersants which mix oil into the water column make booms useless for stopping all but floating oil.
Dispersants will increase the levels of toxic dissolved oil, endangering life in shallow waters and marshes.
Dispersants may do more harm than good because the help dissolve toxic aromatic hydrocarbons in the water column. With a small spill dispersants will help dilute the toxic oil quickly, but with a large ongoing gusher of oil dilution will be ineffective. Large volumes of water are likely to be toxic to oil sensitive organisms.
The media has failed to explain that dissolved components of oil are very toxic. A 2005 the National Academy of Sciences report highlighted the toxicity issues of dispersed oil.
The mechanisms of both acute and sublethal toxicity from exposure to dispersed oil are not sufficiently understood. Recent studies in the literature suggest that toxicity from physically and chemically dispersed oil appears to be primarily associated with the additive effects of various dissolved-phase polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) with additional contributions from heterocyclic (N, S, and O) containing polycyclic aromatic compounds.
Additional toxicity may be coming from the particulate, or oil droplet, phase, but a particular concern stems from potential synergistic effects of exposure to dissolved components in combination with chemically dispersed oil droplets.
Relevant state and federal agencies, industry, and appropriate international partners should develop and fund a series of focused toxicity studies to determine the mechanisms of both acute and sublethal toxicity to key organisms from exposure to dispersed oil. With a better understanding of the mechanisms of toxicity, toxicity tests can be refined to generate data on toxic levels and thresholds for use by decisionmakers.
The research recommended by the Academy has not been done.
However, a relevant master's thesis was done on the toxicity of dispersed Louisiana crude in 2003.PDF
TOXICITY OF SOUTH LOUISIANA CRUDE OIL, ALASKAN NORTH SLOPE CRUDE OIL AND DISPERSANT COREXIT 9500 TO GULF KILLIFISH, WHITE SHRIMP, AND EASTERN OYSTER
Toxicity to shrimp of South Louisiana crude dispersed with Corexit 9500
In 96 hours 50% mortality of shrimp occurs in water with 7ppm dissolved sweet Louisiana crude oil. If dispersant is present, the joint toxicity is even higher. Dissolved Louisiana crude oil is very toxic to crustaceans. However, oysters were not sensitive. Dissolved crude oil was found to be moderately toxic to fish. However, fish eggs and larvae are more sensitive than adult fish.
Dispersants are solubilizing and spreading toxic volatile aromatic hudrocarbons that would otherwise be evaporated and photo-oxidized. They are defeating booming efforts by distributing toxic hydrocarbons through the water column.
They may be effective when used at depth near the source by keeping oil in less productive deep water. However, turbulence is causing some oil to mix with dispersants near the source while other oil gushes to the surface.
Nature news stated that 325,000 gallons of dispersants have been used.
Which dispersants are being used in the Gulf of Mexico?
So far, at least 325,000 gallons (over 1 million litres) of two types of dispersants have been used: Corexit 9500 and Corexit EC9527A.
"One is designed for light, fresh oil or oil which has been released very early on and hasn't been weathered," explains Horsup. "The other is designed for heavier oils and those that have been weathered for a few days."
What are the environmental impacts of dispersants?
Dispersants are themselves unpleasant chemical concoctions, although today's products are less damaging than the toxic solvents used in earlier spills such as the Torrey Canyon disaster. The main problem with dispersants relates to the fact that they help to spread oil more widely into the environment.
Saturday, NOAA forecasts the oil to be flowing straight into the delta.
South Louisiana crude is light and sweet like most oil that was spilled in the early days of the first war in Iraq. The environmental damage could be similar because both cases involve light sweet crude in warm water affecting coastal marshlands.
500 miles of Saudi Arabian coastline was contaminated by crude oil.
During the Gulf War, the Iraqi military intentionally spilled up to 336 million gallons (about 1.3 billion liters) of oil into the Persian Gulf (map) to slow U.S. troop advances, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
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The scientists discovered a "tremendous" amount of oiled sediment remained on the Saudi coast 12 years after the spill—about 3 million cubic feet (856,000 cubic meters). (See "Exxon Valdez Anniversary: 20 Years Later, Oil Remains.")
Perhaps most sobering for the marsh-covered U.S. Gulf Coast, the 2003 report found that the Saudi oil spill was most toxic to the region's marshes and mud flats. Up to 89 percent of the Saudi marshes and 71 percent of the mud flats had not bounced back after 12 years, the team discovered. (See pictures of freshwater plants and animals.)
The good news in this situation is that any dispersed oil that may have been caught up by eddies and pulled into the Loop current is likely diluted to levels that are not toxic. Environmental damage, at this time is limited to the Gulf coast and offshore waters around the blow out.
Probably the most effective action taken to mitigate this disaster is the release of fresh Mississippi river water to sensitive areas. This may save areas that would otherwise be contaminated. Mississippi River water and sediment may lessen the devastation by pushing contaminated water back to sea.
The state has opened gates at the Bayou Lamoque freshwater diversion in Plaquemines Parish to use Mississippi River water to help protect the parish's fragile network of wetlands.
The opening will send around 7,500 cubic feet per second of river water into wetlands adjacent to Black Bay and Breton Sound, the state Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness said.
The hope is that the river water will help push any oil from the Gulf oil spill away from the coastal wetlands.
"The potential effects of this oil spill could last for decades, so we are using every means at our disposal to try to lessen the devastation the oil could inflict on our wetlands," Louisiana Wildlife and Fisheries Department Secretary Robert Barham said.
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