Yes, despite the presence of the pivotal Idaho legislative and federal primaries, there is a Tuesday evening edition of the Wrap. You will be relieved to hear that we are not being bumped for vote-by-vote coverage of the festivities.
Although, in fairness to the Gem State, they do have one primary tonight to keep an eye on: let us all, as progressives, hope that this guy wins the GOP nomination in Idaho's 1st Congressional District.
We'll be back tomorrow to see if Vaughn Ward is the GOP nominee (totally in spite of himself), or not.
For now, enjoy the Tuesday edition of the Wrap.
THE U.S. SENATE
CA-Sen: PPP poll confirms SUSA, gives Fiorina giant lead
During the Monday edition of the Wrap, I reported that SurveyUSA polled the California Senate primary on the GOP side, and reported that Carly Fiorina had a huge lead. I offered that this poll, since it was so disparate from recent polling, needed some confirmation. Consider this to be confirmation. A new PPP poll shows Fiorina well out in front of the GOP field with 41% of the vote. Tom Campbell, as he was in the SUSA poll, trails well behind with 21% of the vote. Chuck DeVore, as he has throughout the election, runs in third place with 16% of the vote.
KS-Sen: Tiahrt starts throwing deep amid primary struggles
In the wake of polling yesterday from SUSA showing him down over 20 points against fellow Congressman Jerry Moran, Todd Tiahrt is electing not to go down without a fight. Tiahrt is expending some resources to get on the air, with their second statewide ad buy of the campaign. This one goes negative on Moran, who has steadily extended his advantage over Tiahrt, who represents the Wichita area.
KY-Sen: Rand Paul orders early campaign overhaul
Man...that was fast. In the wake of one of the more disastrous general election rollouts in recent history, Rand Paul is apparently due to make some personnel changes in his campaign. It defies logic a little bit to attribute the bulk of the unforced errors in the Paul campaign over the last seven days to bad staff work, so call this the underachieving head coach firing his defensive coordinator at the end of the season.
WA-Sen: Gregoire hits Rossi hard on eve of announcement
With his expected entrance into a challenge against Democratic U.S. Senator Patty Murray tomorrow, Republican Dino Rossi could expect to take a little Democratic flak. The open fire is preceding his announcement, and it is coming from a familiar source. Governor Christine Gregoire (D) hit Rossi today, asking reporters what exactly Rossi has done to merit election to the U.S. Senate. Expect the "empty suit" charge to be a primary assault on Rossi, whose main claim to fame is that pair of losses to Gregoire in 2004 and 2008.
THE U.S. HOUSE
HI-01: Case is in, calls (again) for a cleared election
Former Democratic Congressman Ed Case seems to have a real problem with elective democracy, and a real affinity for polls. In the wake of his disappointing 3rd place finish in the all-mail special election conducted over the weekend, there was some speculation that Case might not continue onward to the Democratic primary. He quickly dismissed any notion of withdrawal, and took it one step further. In an absurd gesture, Case challenged Hanabusa to jointly conduct a general election poll matching both candidates against newly-minted GOP incumbent Charles Djou, with the less "electable" candidate dropping out.
Well, heck, I'd want that, too, if previous polling underestimated my challenger's vote share by anywhere between 3-15 percent, and overstated my vote share by a similar margin.
OH-18: GOP primary from May 4th not quite over...yet
Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner can almost (but not quite) close the door on the May 4th primaries in her home state. She ordered a state-mandated recount in the state's 18th Congressional district, where NRCC favorite Bob Gibbs clings to a 156-vote lead, a margin of around three-tenths of a percent. Gibbs, as he did three weeks ago, is acting like a man who has already won, saying that he is preparing for Democratic incumbent Zach Space.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
CA-Gov: PPP and SUSA in harmony of Whitman-Poizner showdown
Just like in the Senate primary, PPP's new data out of the Golden State goes an awfully long way towards confirming the data from yesterday's SurveyUSA poll. And that, friends, is lousy news for one Steve Poizner. This poll has free-spending Meg Whitman up easily (51-26) over Poizner, a reversal of the recent tightening in that race.
FL-Gov: Dockery shutters campaign, gives Scott clear shot
As might have been expected when free spending hospital magnate Rick Scott jumped into the GOP primary, GOP state legislator Paula Dockery ended her campaign for Governor of Florida. This gives Scott a clear opportunity to displace longtime GOP frontrunner Bill McCollum. Dockery's traction, minimal to begin with, disappeared when Scott jumped into the fray with an open checkbook. An Ipsos poll over the weekend had Dockery a distant third, with just 3% of the vote (McCollum leads Scott 46-22).
NV-Gov: Gibbons career on life support, according to new poll
This one came in late in the day, from Taegan Goddard (via Nevada's political go-to guy, Jon Ralston): according to a new poll commissioned by the Republican Governors Association, incumbent Governor Jim Gibbons is on the verge of getting blasted out of his seat. The poll has challenger Brian Sandoval cruising with 50% of the vote, well ahead of Gibbons at 27% and North Las Vegas Mayor Michael Montandon at 11%. Gibbons' defeat has long been suspected, but this poll has the widest gap between challenger and incumbent in recent history.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
Rasmussen continues its recent trend of being unusually Ras-sy. Aside from their almost comic assessment of Obama's job approval ratings (they have him at 42/56...yep, you read that right). Their state numbers follow the same trajectory. Welcome to Governor Chris Dudley of Oregon!!
(no...really...that's what they say)
AR-Gov: Gov. Mike Beebe (D) 53%, Jim Keet (R) 38%
GA-Sen: Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) 57%, Michael Thurmond (D) 30%
OR-Gov: Chris Dudley (R) 45%, John Kitzhaber (D) 44%