While we can safely ignore SurveyUSA's recent California poll (outlier doesn't begin to describe a poll giving Kerry only a 3-point lead in the Golden State), SUSA's track record in Oklahoma is second to none.
SUSA was the only outfit to predict Brad Herny's improbable win in the 2002 governor's race, and they nailed the Republican primary almost on the dot (not to mention the OK-02 Dem primary). So I trust the outfit like none other in OK.
SurveyUSA. 8/16-18. MoE 4.1% (No trend lines.)
Coburn (R) 47
Carson (D) 43
Post-primary bump
It would be nicer if the numbers were reversed, no doubt, but this is a competitive race and will remain so until the very end. Coburn is riding a bump from his hard-fought victory over establishment-backed Humphreys in the GOP primary.
At the beginning of the cycle, Democrats (me included) bragged about the divided Republican party -- how most of our Senate candidates were unchallenged in the primaries, while Republicans were fighting bitter, expensive primaries.
Turns out that every Republican that has emerged from those contested primaries has done so in much stronger position. DeMint in South Carolina and Coors in Colorado have received similar bounces. And while they all spent heavily to win their races, Republicans don't have any problems raising the big bucks. And given we only have eight competitive Senate races this cycle (with two or three in the second-tier), the NRSC has more than enough money to fully fund each race.
Who is Coburn
Coburn has been singled out by all the top wingnuts as their most important candidate. Steven Moore of the Club for Growth is infatuated with him, as is James Dobson of Focus on the Family. That's because Coburn would easily be the most socially conservative Senator in that august institution.
Some "greatest hits" brought to us by WackyTom.com:
"I cringe when I realize that there were children all across this nation watching this program. They were exposed to the violence of multiple gunshot head wounds, vile language, full frontal nudity and irresponsible sexual activity."
-- Then Rep. Tom Coburn discussing his outrage over NBC showing an uncut and non-interrupted presentation of Schindler's List. Associated Press, Feb 25 1997
"I want to touch on cryptosporidium for a minute and I know that's of major concern to lots of groups in this country. ... I also recognize that this disease can sometimes . . . be very helpful -- for doctors -- because it helps us identify those people who in fact are immuno-compromised."
-- Then Rep. Tom Coburn coming to the defense of a parasite in water that killed 104 people and sickened 400,000 others in 1993 and killed 19 in 1994. Al Kamen, Washington Post, Feb 7 1996
''If I wanted to buy a bazooka to use in a very restricted way, to do something, I ought to be able to do that.''
-- Then-Rep. Tom Coburn. Tulsa World, May 2 1999
And just in case we worry that these examples are all too old to matter, there was
this comment from several weeks ago:
I favor the death penalty for abortionists and other people who take life.
Ironic, because Coburn has actually performed abortions as a OB/GYN. Then again, his practice has been a source of much of his strongest local support -- you deliver a family's baby, and they're yours forever.
Brad Carson
Brad Carson is the Democrats best chance to take an Oklahoma Senate seat -- occupied by a succession of extreme wingers -- in a generation. Young, dynamic, a born-and-bred Sooner who gave up the chance to attend Yale Law in favor of University of Oklahoma College of Law. He is part Cherokee
He is clearly a moderate-to-conservative Democrat. He is pro-choice in a staunchly anti-abortion state. He is opposed to gay marriage, which is an electoral must in Oklahoma. In states like OK and SD, Democrats start at a disadvantage. If they are pro-choice it takes a near-miracle to win an election. Anything else is a death wish.
Oklahoma is a poor state, and Carson's encyclopedic knowledge of economic developmental issues is clearly in the interest of the state's people. However, whenever anyone asks Coburn about such issues, his stock answer is: "Here's the truth. Fact is, Carson is a pro-abortion, pro-gay liberal."
Those words are the kiss of death in Oklahoma, and Carson will have to work the next 2 1/2 months to prove that he isn't a liberal. So he'll do things many of you here will bitch about. It's called reality.
Can Democrats Win?
In 2002, Republicans had football hero Steve Largent as their gubernatorial candidate.After searching high and low for a sacrificial lamb, the Dems decided on a state legislator, Brad Henry, to carry the party's flag into what seemed like a losing battle.
Henry won. How?
Oklahoma had a ballot initiative banning cock fighting. In Oklahoma, the cities are Republican, and the rural areas are Democratic. If rural turnout increases, Democratic chances increase.
The ban on cockfighting was viewed by many rural Sooners as an elite imposition by the city slickers. It didn't matter that the vast majority of rural Oklahomans had nothing to do with cock fighting, the initiative was viewed as a symbolic attack on their way of life.
Henry capitalized on that anger and officially opposed the ban (ouch), while Republican Largent supported (double ouch). The initiative narrowly passed, but the issue swept Henry into office in a very Republican year.
The lesson here is not to run on something as controversial as cock fighting. It's that a Democrat who fights off the party's label as the party of elites, and connects with Oklahoma's rural folk, can win. That's why Bush "clears brush" in Crawford, rather than vacation in Kenenbunkport like his father. And that's why southern Democrats bristle when they see Kerry vacationing in rich-people posts like Aspen and Martha's Vinyard.
One last Carson advantage -- He currently has a $2 million head start on Coburn. Coburn will raise a lot of money, but Carson has proven that he is a fundraising champ. No big money disparities in this race.
Mercenary Flap
I have an admitted soft-spot for Carson for a very personal reason. After my mercenary comments drew the ire of the Right, there was an organized campaign to get this site's advertisers to pull their and and get campaigns to disavow me. One campaign after another crumbled under the pressure of the Freeper attack, including the Kerry campaign.
Then they went after Carson for linking to this site here. Here was a candidate in conservative Oklahoma, who would seem easy pickings.
Yet Carson didn't back down against those bullies. He applied the smackdown here.
If you are one of my supporters, please read a varied list of sources, both liberal and conservative, so that you can better understand the world around you.
If you are one of the NRSC's kind of folks, only read material that reinforces your political perspective.
The comment thread on that post is also interesting.
And when Carson stood firm, the whole anti-Kos campaign crumbled. That took courage in a way not often seen on our side, so trained to jump in panic at the slightest hint of controversy.
So Carson is my favorite politician this cycle, with apologies to all the other great Democrats running for office. I won't offer a formal fundraising endorsement, since there's no need to give the other side ammunition they can use against him, but just realize that Coburn is the fringe Right's most important race this cycle (more so than Bush). It's a race we must win.
My Oklahoma Connection
I lived in Oklahoma for 8 months, doing my basic and advanced training at Ft. Sill in Lawton, OK. It was desert, and Lawton is your typical dusty military town, full of pawn shops and strip joints. The summer was brutal, the winter was bitter. But I have never seen more beautiful skies and sunsets than I did that September of 1989.