Though virtually all of the talk in the 2010 election cycle has revolved around Republican pickup targets, it is worth remembering that the Democrats have a target or two of their own.
One of those in the Buckeye State, and in that battle, a pair of pollsters concur that the Democratic nominee, Lt. Governor Lee Fisher, has a real fighting chance of flipping this seat away from the GOP:
PPP. 6/26-27. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (March results)
Lee Fisher (D) 40 (36)
Rob Portman (R) 38 (41)
Quinnipiac. 6/22-27. Registered voters. MoE 3% (April 29 results)
Lee Fisher (D) 42 (40)
Rob Portman (R) 40 (37)
This is a race that has undergone a slow-and-steady transformation since the start of the year. Months ago, it was Portman that held the narrow lead over Fisher and his then-primary rival, Jennifer Brunner.
Lately, however, it has been Fisher that has moved into an incremental lead. While the lead is far too small to be statistically significant, the movement has tracked across several polls, by different pollsters.
Ironically, anti-Washington sentiment (often ruled by the punditocracy as the bane of Democrats exclusively) might be working against the Republican here. PPP's Tom Jenson explains:
One finding in the poll bodes very poorly for Portman if Democrats are effective in getting their message across this fall. 59% of voters say they have more faith in Columbus politicians (a group Fisher falls into) to deal with Ohio's problems to just 15% who say their greater trust goes to Washington politicians, something Democrats will certainly attempt to make Portman out as at most any opportunity they get.
There is still, of course, much work to be done. One unique characteristic reflected in both surveys was the fact that both candidates are still, in my ways, unknown. Roughly half of the voters polled by PPP did not register an opinion about either candidate. In the Quinnipiac poll, those numbers were even higher, with 54% expressing no strong opinion about Fisher and 66% saying the same for Portman.
Given that fact, it might be a potential boon for Ohio Democrats to make a concerted early effort to define Portman as the consummate insider, which is a fairly apt definition for the GOP nominee.