I wrote a comment to mishal817’s diary and the diarist asked me for my opinion in another comment. I started to write an answer but then it got too long so I’m putting it up as a diary.
I have been able to learn from the Internet that Shane Bauer, Sarah Shourd, and Josh Fattal were living in Damascus, Syria and decided, with another friend, to go on a one week holiday to Sulaymaniyah, Iraq to go hiking at Ahmed Awa waterfall which is 'a waterfall that was a tourist destination well known to people who live in the Middle East' according to Nora Shourd. These four friends then traveled to Iraq through Turkey.
While hiking Shane, Sarah, Josh were arrested by Iranian border police on July 31st, 2009 because, according to Iran, they had entered Iran illegally. They have been held in Evin Prison since then
Shane, Sarah and Josh’s explanations would be suspicious to the Iranian government because I believe the Iranians might be thinking as follows:
First, you have a week or so off, so you decide to go to a location which will take at least two difficult days to get to, and then at least two more difficult days to get back from. And you will have to go through two border crossings, Syria to Turkey and Turkey to Iraq. The Turkey to Iraq border crossing is generally not an easy one to pass through. How did you get through it so easily?
Second, you are going to this ‘waterfall that was a tourist destination well known to people who live in the Middle East.’ Iraq is not a popular tourist destination from anywhere in the world, especially Syria. On the internet I haven’t found any information about the Ahmed Awa waterfall’s being a tourist destination. Everything I have seen is about how this waterfall is connected to the three hikers.
In addition, after spending two days to get to Sulaymaniyah, you have to go about another 90 difficult kilometers more to get to the waterfall so that you can finally go hiking.
Then after you go hiking near the waterfall, you continue to hike at least another three kilometers over a quite barren landscape, in the summer heat, away from the green valley where the waterfall is.
Third, you know about this ‘popular’ waterfall near Sulaymaniyah. Don’t you also know that this particular area is known to be used by groups which are considered to be terrorist groups by Iran and which attack Iran from this area? Don’t you also know that this area is known to be a route which is used by dissidents in Iran in order to escape from Iran? Were you there to help these terrorists or to meet someone who was escaping from Iran?
Fourth, just a few hours after you get arrested, the government in Iran starts to get phone calls from the American Interests Section of the Swiss Embassy in Tehran. If you are just lost hikers, why is there all this high-level interest?
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In my opinion all of the protests and publicity are just making things worse. They are changing this from a court case into a political football. Iran will never put themselves in a position where they will be seen as having given in to U.S. pressure.
If Shane, Sarah and Josh have not given conflicting statements to the Iranian police, and if their statements can satisfy Iranian suspicions such as those I have noted above, I believe they will be released sooner or later, hopefully sooner. The Iranian court system is almost completely about the paperwork and the statements of the accused.
Shane, Sarah and Josh’s mothers' being allowed to visit them makes me believe that they will be released, but only after the paperwork is done. And paperwork can be done quickly or slooooooowly. It just depends on how motivated the people doing the paperwork are to finish it.
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Before anyone starts accusing me of justifying Iran's actions, I'm not. I was asked a question and I answered it.
Update:
Below are mishal817’s comment and my response to it. I have put them here just to make it easier for people to access and read and because they are directly related to why I wrote this diary.
This is mishal817’c comment:
After reading your response I still do believe that we still need to build awareness on this issue from a human rights perspective. It is true that the court system in iran does as it sees fit, but I think that at least reminding people that this type of stuff is going on does no one harm. Again, thank you for responding in a prompt and courteous manner.
This is my response:
Building awareness is a good thing to do but always keep in mind what your objective is.
If your objective is to build awareness that this has happened and to work for a quick positive resolution, it is necessary to avoid being inflammatory and to keep to the facts.
It is also necessary to understand that Iran also has a point of view. According to Iran Shane, Sarah and Josh broke one law, entering the country illegally. I strongly feel that Iran probably suspected that they may have been involved with espionage, aiding terrorists and/or aiding dissidents.
Iran’s point of view may be wrong or illogical to you but you need to try to understand it so that you can address, and thereby diminish, their concerns and suspicions instead of increasing them.
I hope that, and will not be surprised if, Shane, Sarah and Josh are released during the post Ramadan Eid ul-Fitr religious holidays in the middle of September or during the post Hajj Eid al-Adha religious holidays in the middle of November.