Summary:
PA has 19 representatives: 10 D, 8 R, primary done
RI has 2 representatives, both D, primary 9/14
Possibly vulnerable:
PA-03 (D)
PA-04 (D)
PA-06 (R)
PA-07 (D)
PA-08 (D)
PA-10 (D)
PA-11 (D)
PA-12 (D)
PA-15 (R)
PA-16 (R)
PA-17 (D)
RI-01 (D)
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from WaPo
VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
FEC
and my previous diaries.
District: PA-01
Location Philadelphia and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 35
Representative Robert Brady (D)
VoteView 83
First elected 1998
2008 margin 91-9 over Mike Muhammad
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 86-13
Obama margin 88-12
Bush margin 2004 15-84
Current opponents None
Demographics 14th lowest income (median = $28K), 52nd fewest Whites (33%), 27th most Blacks (45%), 9th most Democratic
Assessment No opponent
District: PA-02
Location Philadelphia and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 38
Representative Chaka Fattah (D)
VoteView 77
First elected 1994
2008 margin 89-11 over Adam Lang
2006 margin 89-9
2004 margin 88-12
Obama margin 90-10
Bush margin 2004 12-87
Current opponents Rick Hellberg
Demographics Demographics 32nd lowest income (median = $31K), 46th fewest Whites (29.9%), 7th most Blacks (60.7%). 4th most Democratic
Assessment Safe. Fattah raised and spent a lot and now has little COH; Hellberg has very little.
District: PA-03
Location Northwestern PA, bordering Lake Erie, OH, and NY map
Cook PVI R + 3
Representative Kathy Dahlkemper (D) over incumbent Phil English
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 52-48
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-49
Bush margin 2004 53-47
Current opponents Mike Kelly
Demographics 33rd most Whites (93.7%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment Dahlkemper ousted Phil English, who had been in the House since 1994; she has $1 million COH, Kelly has $100K but is self-financed. Dahlkemper should be OK, but she is a freshman in a swing district.
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Lean D
District: PA-04
Location Western PA, bordering OH map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Jason Altmire (D)
VoteView 236
First elected 2006
2008 margin 56-44 over Melissa Hart
2006 margin 52-48
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 44-55
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Current opponents Keith Rothfus
Demographics 21st most White (94.3%), tied for fewest Latinos (0.6%)
Assessment Altmire ousted Hart in 2006; he has $1.5 million COH; Rothfus has $200K, but that includes a hefty loan. This is a Republican district, but Altmire, one of the most conservative Democrats in the House, seems to suit it.
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Lean D
District: PA-05
Location Northern PA, bordering NY map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Glenn Thompson (R)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 57-41 over Mark McCracken
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 44-54
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Current opponents Michael Pipe
Demographics 32nd most rural (54%), 6th lowest income (median = $33K), 6th most Whites (96%), 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%).
Assessment Safe for Republican. Thompson has $300K COH, Pipe has little.
District: PA-06
Location West of Philadelphia map
Cook PVI D + 4
Representative Jim Gerlach (R)
VoteView 253
First elected 2002
2008 margin 52-48
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin 51-49
Obama margin 58-41
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Current opponents Manan Trivedi
Demographics 70th highest income (median = $56K)
Assessment A prime pickup possibility. This district is trending Democratic, and the Gerlach won narrowly in every election. Gerlach has $500K COH, Trivedi $300K.
SSP rating: Lean R
My rating: Tossup
District: PA-07
Location Southeastern PA, bordering DE, including King of Prussia map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Joe Sestak (D) Running for Senate
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 47-53
Current opponents Bryan Lentz (D) vs. Patrick Meehan (R)
Demographics 67th highest income (median = $56K), 41st fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment This district is fairly Democratic, but most analysts seem to call this a tossup. Lentz has almost $800K COH, Meehan about $1.1 million
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup
District: PA-08
Location The southeast corner of PA, bordering NJ; mostly Bucks County map
Cook PVI D + 2
Representative Patrick Murphy (D)
VoteView 187
First elected 2006
2008 margin 57-42 over Tom Manion
2006 margin 1418 votes out of 250,000
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Current opponents Mike Fitzpatrick
Demographics 44th highest income (median = $59K)
Assessment Murphy has $1.8 million COH, Fitzpatrick about $700K
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D
District: PA-09
Location The central part of southern PA, bordering MD and a little of WV map
Cook PVI R + 17
Representative Bill Shuster (R)
VoteView 340
First elected 2001
2008 margin 64-36 over Tony Barr
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 69-30
Obama margin 45-53
Bush margin 2004 60-40
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 19th most rural (59.5%), 3rd most White (96.4%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%), 2nd fewest nonBlack, nonWhite, nonLatino.
Assessment No opponent
District: PA-10
Location Northeastern PA, bordering NY and NJ map
Cook PVI R + 8
Representative Christopher Carney (D)
VoteView 234
First elected 2006
2008 margin 56-44 over Chris Hackett
2006 margin 53-47
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 45-53
Bush margin 2004 60-40
Current opponents Tom Marino
Demographics 27th most rural (55.4%), 9th most White (95.5%), 71st least Black (1.9%), 51st least Latinos (1.4%)
Assessment This is a fairly vulnerable district, at R +8; Carney has about $800K COH, Marino has little.
District: PA-11
Location Eastern PA, including Scranton and Wilkes-Barre map
Cook PVI D + 4
Representative Paul Kanjorski (D)
VoteView 169.5
First elected 1984
2008 margin 52-48 over Lou Barletta
2006 margin 72-28
2004 margin 94-6 against a minor party
Obama margin 57-42
Bush margin 2004 47-53
Current opponents Lou Barletta
Demographics 97th lowest income (median = $35K)
Assessment Vulnerable. Kanjorski has $1 million COH, Barletta about $200K but self-financed.
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Lean D
District: PA-12
Location An odd, thready district in southwest PA map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative Mark Critz(D)
VoteView NA
First elected Won special election against Burns in 2010 after John Murtha died
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-49
Bush margin 2004 51-49
Current opponents Tim Burns
Demographics 32nd poorest (median income = $31K), 16th most Whites (95.0%). 3rd fewest Latinos (0.6%)
Assessment Murtha won here easily, year after year, but with him gone, it's more vulnerable. Each candidate has about $160K COH
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Lean D
District: PA-13
Location Northeast Philadelphia and suburbs and exurbs of Philadelphia map
Cook PVI D + 7
Representative Allyson Schwartz (D)
VoteView 162
First elected 2004
2008 margin 63-35 over Marina Kats
2006 margin 66-34
2004 margin 56-44
Obama margin 58-41
Bush margin 2004 43-56
Current opponents Dee Adcock
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Schwartz has $3 million COH, Adcock about $300K but self-financed.
District: PA-14
Location Pittsburgh and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 19
Representative Mike Doyle (D)
VoteView 112.5
First elected 1994
2008 margin 91-9 over a Green party candidate
2006 margin 90-10 (against a green)
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 70-29
Bush margin 2004 30-69
Current opponents Melissa Haluszczak
Demographics 26th lowest income (median = $30K), 71st most Blacks (22.5%)
Assessment Safe. Doyle has $400K COH, Haluszczak is in debt
District: PA-15
Location Central part of eastern PA, including Allentown and Bethlehem, bordering NJ map
Cook PVI D + 2
Representative Charles Dent (R)
VoteView 255
First elected 2004
2008 margin 59-41 over Sam Bennett
2006 margin 54-43
2004 margin 59-39
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 50-50
Current opponents John Callahah
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Bennett (who I liked) had some local problems, Callahan has a good chance. Each candidate has about $1 million COH
SSP rating: Lean R
My rating: Tossup.
District: PA-16
Location Southeastern PA, centering on Lancaster map
Cook PVI R + 8
Representative Joe Pitts (R)
VoteView 405
First elected 1996
2008 margin 56-39 over Bruce Slater
2006 margin 57-40
2004 margin 64-34
Obama margin 48-51
Bush margin 2004 62-38
Current opponents Lois Herr
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Might be vulnerable. Pitts has a relatively paltry $250K COH, Herr about $60K
My rating: Likely R
District: PA-17
Location South and east of central PA, including Harrisburg map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Tim Holden (D)
VoteView 192.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin 64-36 over Toni Gillhooley
2006 margin 65-35
2004 margin 59-39
Obama margin 48-51
Bush margin 2004 58-42
Current opponents David Argall
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Holden has won easily, even in this
Republican district. Should be safe. Holden has about $900K COH, Argall about $30K
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Likely D
District: PA-18
Location Suburbs of Pittsburgh map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Tim Murphy (R)
VoteView 259
First elected 2002
2008 margin 64-36 over Steve O'Donnell
2006 margin 58-42
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 44-55
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Current opponents Daniel Connolly
Demographics 10th most Whites (95.4%), 77th fewest Blacks (2.0%), tied for fewest Latinos (0.6%)
Assessment Safe for Republican. Murphy has $800K COH, O'Donnell very little.
District: PA-19
Location Southern PA including Gettysburg map
Cook PVI R + 12
Representative Todd Platts (R)
VoteView 254
First elected 2000
2008 margin 67-33 over Phillip Avilo
2006 margin 91-4 against a Green
2004 margin 64-36
Obama margin 43-56
Bush margin 2004 64-36
Current opponents Ryan Sanders
Demographics 68th most Whites (92.2%)
Assessment Safe for Republican. Platts has very little COH, but Sanders has less, and this is a very Republican district.
District: RI-01
Location Northern and eastern RI, bordering MA and CT map
Cook PVI D + 13
Representative Patrick Kennedy (D) Retiring
VoteView 89
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 65-33
Bush margin 2004 36-62
Current opponents Democrats: David Cicciline, Bill Lynch, David Segal; Republicans: John Loughlin,
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe for whichever Democrat wins; it's an overwhelmingly D district. Cicciline has $900K COH, Lynch about $100K (but debt), Segal about $80K, Loughlin about $100K
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Safe
District: RI-02
Location Most of the state map
Cook PVI D + 9
Representative Jim Langevin (D)
VoteView 146
First elected 2000
2008 margin 70-30 over Mark Zaccaria
2006 margin 73-27 against an independent
2004 margin 75-21
Obama margin 61-37
Bush margin 2004 41-57
Current opponents A primary challenge from Betsy Donnigan, and then either Zaccaria again or Michael Gardiner.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Langevin has $500K COH, Dennigan $150K but self-financed; Zaccaria little. No info on Gardiner