The massive earthquake that rocked north-eastern Pakistan several years ago has been eclipsed by the
massive flooding in north-western Pakistan. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, former known as "North-West Frontier Province", has been ravaged. At least 1,000 are known to be dead but that number will rise dramatically. Many roads and bridges have been destroyed and a number of homes and other forms of infrastructure swept away. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa essentially makes up the
western eastern part of "Pashtunistan", with the tribal areas and Quetta region squeezed between Pakistan's KP-province and southern Afghanistan. Pashtunistan is where the Taliban, both Afghan-focused and Pakistan-focused, is most active. In the center, in a tribal/semi-autonomous place called "Waziristan", is where al Qaeda Central is based.
Only time will tell the true level of devestation.
Afghanistan:
In July, 66 U.S. troops died in Afghanistan. June, which was the deadliest month for NATO troops overall, saw 60 U.S. deaths. With operations being
stepped up, and the summer begins coming to an end, the fighting should only be expected to increase in the month of August.
The New York Times reports very old news(again) , and get called on it by Joe Klein of Time magazine who generally makes a lot of sense;
As I've been saying, the only possible solution in Afghanistan is a deal with the Taliban. Putting a hurt on the Taliban leadership may be the best way to get the insurgents to the table. One senses that there are negotiations among the Afghans, Pakistanis and Taliban right now. The question is whether Hamid Karzai can come up with a formula that is acceptable to both the Taliban--and also to the non-Pashtun, Taliban-hating 40% or so of the Afghan population (including 90% or so of his Army). That will not be easy.
But I do think that the idea of a long-term counterinsurgency strategy working in Afghanistan is dead as a doornail. Such a strategy requires a reliable Afghan partner. We haven't got one.
6 civilians died in a roadside bombing in the southern province of Kandahar. In the northern province of Kunduz, a policeman and two civilians died in a Taliban suicide assault.
As the Dutch leave the south-central province of Uruzgan, ending their mission in Afghanistan, the U.S./Australia/Slovak/Singaporean security forces take their posts.
In the south, U.K./Afghan forces claim progress during operation Black Prince in central-Helmand province. They appear to have had little if any contact with insurgents.
Pakistan:
An IED killed two Pakistani soldiers in the Mehsud-regions of South Waziristan. The Mehsud-regions of South Waziristan were the strongholds of the Pakistani Taliban until Pakistan launched Operation Rah-e-Najat last fall. The Afghan Taliban, by contrast, is based in the western/Wana region of South Waziristan and the northern/north-eastern portions of Balochistan province just to the south of Waziristan/FATA.
Pakistan's ambassador to the U.S., tragically named "Ambassador Haqqani"
(no relation to the Afghan insurgent group), said that Pakistan would only launch a military operation in North Waziristan if they feel they can win it militarily. To go into North Waziristan would almost certainly destroy their relationship with the Afghan Taliban- and for that reason, it's in Pakistan's interest to keep everyone guessing for as long as possible. This pertains to both the Wana region of South Waziristan and North Waziristan.
North of Waziristan in the central-FATA region, Pakistani security forces remain engaged with militants in Orakzai tribal agency. The militants remain stubborn in the northern portion of the agency and across the border in Khyber agency's Tirah Valley. A military offensive into the Tirah Valley appears likely.
Pervez Musharraf has plans to return to Pakistan and political life.
Maps:
When considering the situation in Pashtunistan, consider these maps of Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is in the Pashtun areas where the U.S. and NATO have the most problems. It's important to note that while Pashtuns make up a much larger proportion of the population of Afghanistan than they do in Pakistan, there are still more Pashtuns in Pakistan than in Afghanistan. Here is a good map and rundown of the areas that make up the main warzone.