Republican freshman Senator Richard Burr is doing his best imitation of a Democratic incumbent this cycle:
PPP (PDF). 8/27-29. Likely voters. MoE 3.5% (7/31 results)
Richard Burr (R) 43 (42)
Elaine Marshall (D) 38 (39)
Mike Beitler (L) 6 (10)
Pollster Tom Jensen:
PPP's first look at the North Carolina Senate race since switching over to a likely voter model finds Democratic interest in this fall's election on a severe decline compared to 2008, and as a result Richard Burr has expanded his lead to 5 points. He's up on Elaine Marshall 43-38, with Libertarian Michael Beitler pulling 6% and 13% of voters undecided.
Marshall's winning 77% of Obama voters and Burr's winning 76% of McCain voters so if the turnout patterns this year were the same as in 2008 we'd have a tie race. But those planning to vote at this point two months before the election report having voted for John McCain by 9 points in 2008, in contrast to Barack Obama's actual narrow victory in the state. That Republican shift in this year's electorate is consistent with what we're seeing across the country, and it's the biggest thing Marshall's going to have to overcome if she's going to win this fall.
This race is likely more winnable than the Missouri Senate race, where the DSCC is pumping in big bucks while ignoring this one. Part of the problem is money -- as of the last reporting period, Burr had over $6 million cash on hand, while Marshall had $163,000. The DSCC doesn't feel like it can close that gap. Yet despite the big cash disparity, Marshall remains competitive, and money isn't everything in a climate that isn't being kind to incumbents.
And will Burr really be the incumbent to break this seat's curse? No incumbent has won it since 1968.
The composite, including Rasmussen: