Summary:
UT has 3 reps, 1 D, 2 R, primary done
VT has 1 rep, a D, primary 8/24
VA has 11, 5 R and 6 D, primary done
WA has 9, 6 D, 3 R, primary 8/17
WV has 3, 2 D 1 R, primary done
WI has 8, 6 D, 2 R, primary 9/14
WY has 1, an R, primary 8/17
Possibly vulnerable
UT-02 (D)
WA-02 (D)
WV-03 (D)
VA-02 (D)
VA-05 (D)
VA-09 (D)
VA-11 (D)
WA-03 (D)
WA-08 (R)
WI-07 (D)
WI-08 (D)
WV-01 (D)
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from WaPo
VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
FEC
Stochastic Democracy for recent polls
District: UT-01
Location Northwestern UT, including Ogden and part of Salt Lake City map
Cook PVI R + 21
Representative Rob Bishop (R)
VoteView 371
First elected 2002
2008 margin 65-30 over Morgan Brown
2006 margin 63-32
2004 margin 68-29
Obama margin 33-64
Bush margin 2004 75-25
Current opponents Stephen Thompson
Demographics 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), 8th most Republican (per Cook PVI)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Bishop has about $125K COH, Thompson has little.
District: UT-02
Location Most of Salt Lake City, and all of southeastern UT map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative Jim Matheson (D)
VoteView 224
First elected
2008 margin 63-35 over Bill Dew
2006 margin 59-37
2004 margin 55-43
Obama margin 40-58
Bush margin 2004 66-31
Current opponents Morgan Philpot
Demographics 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%)
Assessment Matheson has over $1 million COH, Philpot has little
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Safe.
District: UT-03
Location Southwestern UT, including Orem and Provo map
Cook PVI R + 26
Representative Jason Chafetz (R)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 66-28 over Bennion Spencer
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 29-67
Bush margin 2004 77-21
Current opponents Karen Hyer
Demographics 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 7th most Republican district in the country
Assessment Safe for Republicans, Chafetz has $100K COH, Hyer has little
District: VT-01
Location Vermont map
Cook PVI D + 13
Representative Peter Welch (D)
VoteView 32.5
First elected 2006
2008 margin 84% against multiple minor parties
2006 margin 53-45
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 67-30
Bush margin 2004 39-59
Current opponents Three Republicans are in a primary: Don Beaudry, John Mitchell, and Keith Stern.
Demographics 13th most rural (61.8%), 4th most White (96.2%), 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)
Assessment Safe. Welch has over $1 million COH, the Republicans have little.
District: VA-01
Location Northeast VA, including Fredericksburg and most of the Chesapeake shoreline (on the western side) map
Cook PVI R + 7
Representative Robert Whitman (R)
VoteView 336
First elected 2007
2008 margin 57-42 over Bill Day
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-51
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents Krystal Ball (what a name!)
Demographics 13th most veterans (17.7%)
Assessment Ball has $260K COH, but a lot of debt, Whitman has about $500K. Safe for Republicans.
District: VA-02
Location Virginia Beach and the eastern side of the Chesapeake map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative Glenn Nye (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 52-48 over Thelma Drake
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 50-48
Bush margin 2004 58-42
Current opponents Scott Rigel
Demographics 3rd most veterans (20.3%)
Assessment Nye ousted Drake; he has about $1.3 million COH, Rigel has about $250K, but is somewhat self-financed.
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup
District: VA-03
Location Richmond and Norfolk and more or less contiguous points in between map
Cook PVI D + 20
Representative Bobby Scott (D)
VoteView 98.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 69-31
Obama margin 76-24
Bush margin 2004 33-66
Current opponents Chuck Smith
Demographics 53rd most veterans (15.5%), 59th fewest Whites (37.7%), 16th most Blacks (56%)
Assessment Safe. Scott has only $60K COH but Smith has even less, and this is a safe D seat.
District: VA-04
Location Southeastern VA map
Cook PVI R + 4
Representative Randy Forbes (R)
VoteView 339
First elected 2001
2008 margin 60-40 over Andrea Miller
2006 margin 76-23
2004 margin 64-35
Obama margin 50-49
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents Wynne Legrow
Demographics 34th most veterans (16.2%), 38th most Blacks (33.1%), 91st fewest Latinos (2.0%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Forbes has about $500K, Legrow has little.
District: VA-05
Location Central southern VA, north to Charlottesville map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative Thomas Perrielo (D)
VoteView 353
First elected 2008
2008 margin 745 votes out of about 300,000 over Virgil Goode
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-51
Bush margin 2004 56-43
Current opponents Robert Hurt
Demographics 10th most rural (64.0%), 68th most Blacks (23.9%), 67th fewest Latinos (1.6%)
Assessment Perrielo ousted Goode, but Goode was nuts. Vulnerable. Periello has $1.7 million COH, Hurt has about $215K, but some debt. This is a Republican district, but now Perielo is the incumbent and has a big money edge
SSP rating: tossup
My rating: tossup
District: VA-06
Location Northwestern VA, bordering WV, including Roanoke map
Cook PVI R + 12
Representative Bob Goodlatte (R)
VoteView 344
First elected 1992
2008 margin 62-37 over Sam Rassoul
2006 margin 75% against minor parties
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 42-57
Bush margin 2004 63-36
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment No opponent
District: VA-07
Location Richmond and points north and west map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Eric Cantor (R)
VoteView 409
First elected 2000
2008 margin 63-37 over Anita Hartke
2006 margin 64-34
2004 margin 75-24
Obama margin 46-53
Bush margin 2004 61-38
Current opponents Rick Waugh
Demographics 90th highest income (median = $51K), 90th fewest Latinos (2.0%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Cantor has $1.5 million COH, Waugh has little.
District: VA-08
Location DC suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 16
Representative James Moran (D)
VoteView 57.5
First elected 1990
2008 margin 68-30 over Mark Ellmonre
2006 margin 66-31
2004 margin 60-37
Obama margin 69-30
Bush margin 2004 35-64
Current opponents Patrick Murray
Demographics 68th highest income (median = $63K), 48th most nonBlack, nonLatino, nonWhites (mostly 9.5% Asians)
Assessment Safe. Moran has over half a million COH, Murray has little.
District: VA-09
Location map
Cook PVI R + 11
Representative Rick Boucher (D)
VoteView 180
First elected 1982
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 59-39
2004 margin 59-39
Obama margin 40-59
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents Morgan Griffith
Demographics 7th most rural (65.9%), 24th lowest income (median = $30K), 27th most Whites (93.3%), 27th fewest Latinos (1.1%)
Assessment Looks safe, Boucher has over $2 million COH, Griffith about $300K. Although this is a Republican district, Boucher has won pretty easily, year after year.
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D
District: VA-10
Location map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Frank Wolf (R)
VoteView 266
First elected 1980
2008 margin 59-39 over Judy Feder
2006 margin 57-41
2004 margin 64-36
Obama margin 53-46
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Current opponents Jeff Barnett
Demographics 10th highest income (median = $72K), 76th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (6.6% Asian, 1.9% multiracial),
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Wolf has about $500K COH, Barnett has about $65K
District: VA-11
Location map
Cook PVI D + 2
Representative Gerald Connolly (D)
VoteView 279
First elected 1994
2008 margin 55-35 over Keith Fimian
2006 margin 55-44
2004 margin 60-38
Obama margin 57-42
Bush margin 2004 50-49
Current opponents Fimian is running again
Demographics Highest income (median = $80K), 41st most veterans (15.9%), 40th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (10.9% Asian, 2.6% multiracial)
Assessment Look reasonably safe. Connolly has $1.3 million COH; Fimian has about $300K but lots of debt and some self financing. I don't see a 20 point pickup in 2 years for Fimian.
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D
District: WA-01
Location North of Seattle on both sides of Puget Sound map
Cook PVI D + 9
Representative Jay Inslee (D)
VoteView 62.5
First elected 1998
2008 margin 68-32 over Larry Ishmael
2006 margin 68-32
2004 margin 66-34
Obama margin 62-36
Bush margin 2004 43-56
Current opponents James Watkins
Demographics 46th highest income (median = $59K), 67th fewest Blacks (1.8%), 53rd most nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks (7.9% Asian, 3.1% multiracial)
Assessment Safe. Inslee has $1.3 million COH, Watkins has little.
District: WA-02
Location Northwestern WA, but east of Strait of Georgia and Puget Sound; bordering Canada, including many islands in the strait and sound. map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Rick Larsen (D)
VoteView 177
First elected 2000
2008 margin 62-38 over Rick Bart
2006 margin 64-36
2004 margin 64-34
Obama margin 56-42
Bush margin 2004 47-51
Current opponents John Koster
Demographics 32nd most veterans (16.3%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)
SSP Rating: Likely D
Assessment Safe. Larsen has almost $900K COH, Koster about $125K
District: WA-03
Location Southwestern WA, bordering OR and the Pacific map
Cook PVI Even
Representative Brian Baird (D) Retiring
VoteView 163
First elected 1998
2008 margin 64-36 over Michael Delavar
2006 margin 63-37
2004 margin 62-38
Obama margin 53-49
Bush margin 2004 50-48
Current opponents Democrat Denny Heck, Republican Jaime Herrera
Demographics 34th most veterans (16.2%), 42nd fewest Blacks (1.2%)
Assessment A swing district. Heck has $700K COH, partly self financed; Herrera has about $100K.
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup
District: WA-04
Location Central WA, bordering OR, including Yakima map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Doc Hastings (R)
VoteView 350
First elected 1994
2008 margin 63-37 over George Fearing
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 40-58
Bush margin 2004 63-36
Current opponents Jay Clough
Demographics 27th fewest Blacks (0.8%), 67th most Latinos (26.4%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Hastings has about $350K COH, Clough has little.
District: WA-05
Location Eastern WA, bordering ID and OR, including Spokane and Walla Walla map
Cook PVI R + 7
Representative Cathy Rogers (R)
VoteView 330.5
First elected 2004
2008 margin 65-35 over Mark Mays
2006 margin 56-44
2004 margin 60-40
Obama margin 46-52
Bush margin 2004 57-41
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 34th most veterans (16.2%), 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%)
Assessment No opponent
District: WA-06
Location Northwestern WA, west of Puget Sound, bordering the Pacific and across the Strait of Juan de Fuca from Canada. map
Cook PVI D + 5
Representative Norman Dicks (D)
VoteView 166
First elected 1976
2008 margin 67-33 over Doug Cloud
2006 margin 71-29
2004 margin 69-31
Obama margin 57-41
Bush margin 2004 45-53
Current opponents Doug Cloud again.
Demographics 15th most veterans (19.8%)
Assessment Safe. Dicks has over $600K COH, Cloud has little.
District: WA-07
Location Seattle map
Cook PVI D + 31
Representative Jim McDermott (D)
VoteView 5
First elected
2008 margin 84-16 over Steve Beren
2006 margin 79-16
2004 margin 81-19
Obama margin 84-15
Bush margin 2004 19-79
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 88th fewest veterans (10.6%), 19th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (13.2% Asian, 3.9% multiracial)
Assessment No opponent.
District: WA-08
Location Eastern suburbs and exurbs of Seattle map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative David Reichert (R)
VoteView 248
First elected
2008 margin 52-48 over Darcy Burner
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin 52-47
Obama margin 57-42
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Current opponents Suzan DelBene
Demographics 25th highest income (median = $64K), 78th fewest Blacks (2.0%), 54th most nonBlack, nonWhite, nonLatino (7.8% Asian)
Assessment Vulnerable; Reichert has about $1 million COH, DelBene about $900K
SSP rating: Likely R
My rating: Lean R
District: WA-09
Location Eastern shore of Puget Sound map
Cook PVI D + 9
Representative Adam Smith (D)
VoteView 183
First elected 1996
2008 margin 66-34 over James Postma
2006 margin 66-34
2004 margin 63-34
Obama margin 58-40
Bush margin 2004 46-53
Current opponents Dick Muri
Demographics 17th most veterans (17.2%), 37th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (7.1% Asian, 4.2% multiracial)
Assessment Safe. Smith has about $400K COH, Muri has little.
District: WV-01
Location Northern WV, bordering OH, PA, and MD map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Alan Mollohan (D) Lost primary
VoteView 171
First elected 1982
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 64-36
2004 margin 68-32
Obama margin 42-57
Bush margin 2004 58-42
Current opponents Democrat: Mike Oliverio Republican: David McKinley
Demographics 67th most rural (46.3%), 28th lowest income (median = $30K), 8th most White (95.8%), 64th fewest Blacks (1.7%), 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%)
Assessment Oliverio has about $300K COH, McKinley about the same, but largely self-financed.
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Lean D
District: WV-02
Location A wiggly strip across central WV, from west to east; borders OH, WV, and MD map
Cook PVI R + 8
Representative Shelley Capito (R)
VoteView 261
First elected 2000
2008 margin 57-43 over Anne Barth
2006 margin 57-43
2004 margin 57-41
Obama margin 44-55
Bush margin 2004 57-42
Current opponents Virginia Graf
Demographics 34th most rural (53.8%), 68th lowest income (median = $33K), 27th most White (93.9%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Capito has about $500K COH, Graf has little.
District: WV-03
Location Southern WV, bordering KY and VA map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Nick Rahall (D)
VoteView 156.5
First elected 1976
2008 margin 67-33 over Marty Gearhart
2006 margin 69-31
2004 margin 65-35
Obama margin 42-56
Bush margin 2004 53-46
Current opponents Elliott Maynard
Demographics 4th most rural (61.6%), 3rd lowest income (median = $26K), 27th most White (93.9%), fewest Latinos (0.6%)
Assessment Safe. Rahall has $1.5 million COH, Maynard abotu $100K.
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Safe, but see comments
District: WI-01
Location Southeastern WI, bordering IL and Lake Michigan. map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Paul Ryan (R)
VoteView 400
First elected 1998
2008 margin 64-35 over Marge Krupp
2006 margin 63-37
2004 margin 65-33
Obama margin 51-47
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Current opponents Paulette Garin
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Ryan has $2 million COH, Garin has little.
District: WI-02
Location Central southern WI, including Madison map
Cook PVI D + 15
Representative Tammy Baldwin (D)
VoteView 10
First elected 1998
2008 margin 69-31 over Peter Theron
2006 margin 63-37
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 69-40
Bush margin 2004 37-62
Current opponents Daniel Theron or Chad Lee
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Baldwin has almost $800K COH, the Republicans each have little.
District: WI-03
Location Southwestern WI, bordering MN and IA, including Eau Claire map
Cook PVI D + 4
Representative Ron Kind (D)
VoteView 185
First elected 1996
2008 margin 63-35 over Paul Stark
2006 margin 65-35
2004 margin 56-43
Obama margin 58-41
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Current opponents Dan Kapanke
Demographics 23rd most rural (56.9%), 5th most White (96.1%), 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)
Assessment Safe. Kind has $1.3 million COH, Kapanke about $300K.
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Safe
District: WI-04
Location Milwaukee and some suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 22
Representative Gwen Moore (D)
VoteView 7
First elected 2004
2008 margin 89-11 over an independent
2006 margin 71-28
2004 margin 70-28
Obama margin 75-24
Bush margin 2004 30-70
Current opponents Dan Sebring, Paul Morel, Dan Sebring
Demographics 67th lowest income (median = $33K), 92nd fewest Whites (50.4%), 39th most Blacks (33.0%)
Assessment Safe. Moore has $100K COH, the Republicans have little.
District: WI-05
Location Northern suburbs of Milwaukee map
Cook PVI R + 12
Representative James Sensenbrenner (R)
VoteView 427
First elected 1978
2008 margin 80-20 over Robert Raymond
2006 margin 62-36
2004 margin 67-32
Obama margin 41-58
Bush margin 2004 64-36
Current opponents Todd Kolosso
Demographics 47th highest income (median = $58K), 24th most Whites (94%), 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Sensenbrenner has $400K COH, Kolosso has little.
District: WI-06
Location Central part of eastern WI, along Lake Michigan, including Sheboygan and Oshkosh map
Cook PVI R + 4
Representative Thomas Petri (R)
VoteView 390
First elected 1979
2008 margin 64-36 over Roger Kittelson
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 67-31
Obama margin 50-49
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 94th most rural (39.3%), 22nd most Whites (94.1%)
Assessment No opponent
District: WI-07
Location Northwestern WI, bordering MN, MI and Lake Superior map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative David Obey (D) Retiring
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-42
Bush margin 2004 49-50
Current opponents Democrat: Julie Lassa, Republican: Sean Duffy
Demographics 21st most rural (58%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), fewest Blacks (0.3%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)
Assessment With Obey out, this district is vulnerable, still, it's a slightly D district. Lassa has about $300K COH, Duffy about $650K
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Lean D
District: WI-08
Location Northeastern WI, bordering MI and Lake Michigan, including Green Bay map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Steve Kagen (D)
VoteView 155
First elected 2006
2008 margin 54-46 over John Gard
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Current opponents Five Republicans: Reid Ribble, Marc Trager, Terri McCormick, Roger Roth, Marc Savard.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Vulnerable. Kagan has $800K, Ribble about $170K, Trager and McCormick and Roth about $100K each.
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Lean D
District: WY-01
Location Wyoming map
Cook PVI R + 20
Representative Cynthia Lummis (R)
VoteView 352
First elected 53-43 over Gary Trauner
2008 margin 2008
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 33-65
Bush margin 2004 69-29
Current opponents David Wendt
Demographics 44th most veterans (15.8%), 74th most Whites (88.9%), 23rd fewest Blacks (0.7%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Lummis has about $300K COH, Wendt has little