Today’s Senate Snapshot shows Democrats gaining a full seat. This is almost entirely due to the rise of Christine O’Donnell in Delaware, who now narrowly leads Mike Castle in tomorrow’s Republican primary.
The presumptive Democratic nominee, Chris Coons, trailed Castle by an average of 12.5% in the general election. However, he leads O’Donnell by an average of 9.0%, and likely more once PPP releases its general election numbers later in the week. (Click here for comparative Coons vs Castle and Coons vs. O’Donnell polling in the general election).
I feel weird even pointing this out, because I don’t want to help deflate O’Donnell’s momentum at the last minute. The situation reminds me of when several progressives, such as Anthony Weiner, Dennis Kucinich, Bernie Sanders, Howard Dean and others (including myself) praised the Medicare buy-in compromise on the public option before it had actually passed the Senate. That praise led Joe Lieberman to come out against the deal, and sunk the whole thing.
So, maybe we are all better off being muted in our reaction to O’Donnell’s rise. Conservatives like few things more than pissing off liberals, and at this point a Castle win would be a real bummer. Let us speak no more of it, and watch the returns tomorrow night. The Senate Snapshot will return on Wednesday evening.
Senate Snapshot, September 13th
(With Rasmussen)
(Without Rasmussen)
Notes
--This is a snapshot, not a forecast. All of the odds presented here are based on if the election were held today. It is not a prediction of future trends.
--Only campaigns within 11% or less in the snapshot that includes Rasmussen polling are listed. If a campaign isn't listed here, then it is not currently as close as any of the campaigns listed here.
--A * indicates that the candidate has a primary challenger, but is the favorite to win the nomination.
--All polls used in the averages are taken from Pollster.com.
--A complete description of the methodology behind this snapshot, along with all the research and a FAQ, can be found here.