Two new polls released today differ slightly on the hard numbers, but say the same thing: Time Kaine has the momentum going into Election Day. First off, a poll by
Mason-Dixon gives Kaine the slight lead for the first time this year.
Democrat Timothy M. Kaine has inched to a 1 percentage point lead over Republican Jerry W. Kilgore in the latest Times-Dispatch Poll, which showed Kilgore up by 2 percentage points two weeks ago.
Kaine is pulling 45 percent; Kilgore, 44 percent. Independent H. Russell Potts Jr. has faded to 4 percent. Seven percent are undecided.
The Kaine-Kilgore contest can be viewed as a statistical dead heat because Kaine's edge is within the poll's margin of error, 4 percentage points in either direction.
The newspaper's fourth and final survey of the hard-fought, neck-and-neck campaign provides few clues to its outcome. One potentially telling finding: Independent voters are breaking solidly to Kaine.
Richmond could be the battleground.
Also, the Richmond area home to both major candidates could prove decisive. Kilgore, who moved to Henrico from his native Southwest Virginia, is barely ahead here, leading Kaine, a former Richmond mayor, by 2 percentage points.
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Kaine is strongest at both ends of the Washington-to-Virginia Beach urban-suburban crescent, which dominates the state's politics. In Northern Virginia, he has a double-digit lead. Hampton Roads favors him, too.
Rural Virginia, a GOP bulwark, seems solid for Kilgore. His advantage in Shenandoah/Piedmont, Roanoke/Southwest and Lynchburg/Southside is high single-digit or low double-digit.
Groups are lining up.
The new findings spotlight seemingly enduring racial and gender gaps. Kaine is stronger with women and African Americans; Kilgore does better with men and whites.
Potts is a wash.
Potts, who peaked at 9 percent in July, now barely registers, hobbled by poor fundraising. The result: The moderate Republican state senator from Winchester has been nearly invisible in the TV advertising battles.
Coker said it is not clear from whom Potts pulls more votes, but "in a one- or two-point race, it might be enough to flip it one way or another."
Potts, initially viewed as a threat to Kilgore, told reporters after a Stafford County appearance yesterday that he "could care less" that he might take votes from the GOP nominee.
Potts said Kilgore is the "most inept, pathetic candidate to ever run for governor in my lifetime. And I believe he would be the worst governor in the history of Virginia."
Rasmussen gives Kaine a slightly bigger lead.
Heading into the final weekend of Election 2005, Democrat Tim Kaine has a narrow lead over Republican Jerry Kilgore in the race to be Virginia's next Governor.
The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll shows Kaine with 49% of the vote while Kilgore attracts 46%. This is the first time all year that either candidate has reached 49% in a Rasmussen Reports poll.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted November 2. The survey's margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points, with a 95% level of confidence. Demographic Details are available for Premium Members.
State Senator Russell Potts, a Republican running as an independent, currently earns just 2% of the statewide vote.
Last week, Kaine was ahead by just two percentage points, 46% to 44%. The candidates have been within three points of each other in six consecutive polls conducted since Labor Day.
This is the fourth straight 2005 Virginia election poll with "leaners" included in the totals. Leaners are those who initially do not express a preference for either major party candidate but lean one way or the other when asked a follow-up question.
Without leaners, Tim Kaine has a one-point edge, 46% to 45%, over Jerry Kilgore.
The partisan breakdown.
Among those not affiliated with either major party, 15% say the ad made them more likely to support Kilgore. Thirty-three percent (33%) said it pushed them towards Kaine.
Kaine earns 89% of votes from Democrats and has a nine point advantage among unaffiliated voters. Kilgore earns 85% of the Republican votes.
Thirty-seven percent (37%) of voters say they plan to vote for Kaine and are certain they will not change their mind. An identical number plan to vote for Kilgore and are certain they will not change their mind.
No doubt this is going to be a squeaker, but Kaine is gathering steam. I'm feeling good about Tuesday.