This is the second in a series of ACTION diaries to get Kossacks to stop thinking the House is lost based on national generic polls and focus on the individual District races we need to, and can win to retain the House. When you start to look at the House on a District-by-District basis, it is not as bleak of a picture as the pundits make it out to be. But the pundits can only be proven wrong if we work to retain and flip "swing" districts.
This diary series is based on Nate Silver's latest predictive model of House races that are in play. Last week, I covered races in Pennsylvania and Colorado.
Please join me after the jump /\ where I will cover the status of swing district races in New York and Ohio, and link you up with each Dem. candidate so you can show him/her a little financial love and/or volunteer for GOTV activities.
This week I will try not to ramble on so much and get right down to the Dem. candidates in swing House districts who need and deserve our help. But before I get down to the nitty-gritty, I would like to start out on a little optimistic rambling to uplift the spirits of some of you who are afraid that the "Orange Man" may have already won.
A lot has been said and written about the Dems. poor standing in the "Generic Polls". Although our standing in these polls seems to be improving some of late, the generic Dem. still trails the generic Republican. The key question is what does this mean in terms of district-by-district race outcomes. Here’s what our buddy Nate has to say about it:
My interest in this question was piqued yesterday when I came across a poll of likely voters in New York’s 24th Congressional District, in which a vulnerable Democratic incumbent, Michael Arcuri, has a 48-to-40-point lead over his Republican challenger, Richard Hanna. The 24th is one of those districts that Republicans might need to win if they are going to make monumental gains in the House: in presidential elections, it has been slightly more Republican-leaning than the country as a whole, and Mr. Arcuri has been in office for less than four years. So while I could show you a half-dozen similar districts in which the Republicans have strong numbers, this particular result ought to be modestly comforting to Democrats.
What’s interesting about this poll, however, is that it also asked respondents whether they would rather see Democrats or Republicans control the House. And there, voters gave Republicans a 3-point advantage, 46 to 43. So, even though a plurality of voters in this district want to see Republicans in charge of Congress, a plurality also wants to re-elect the Democrat, Mr. Arcuri.
Interesting isn’t it? That’s why I prefer to look at district-by-district polling to try to gauge where we stand. And speaking of those polls, here’s another note of optimism.
In most cases the Dem. candidate does substantially better in polls which use a "registered voter" base, than in polls which use a "likely voter" base, as many of you may have already noticed. This means that in a lot of races we don’t necessarily have to convince a slew of voters to vote for Dems., we simply have to get our registered voters to the polls. GOTV can make all the difference in many of these races.
Now to get down to business. Nate's latest predictive model indicates a total of 80 "swing" seats which range from "likely" to "possible" takeover by the opposite party, with 4 seats being a Dem. takeovers. Running the numbers, Republicans need between 39 & 43 takeover seats in the House to take control, depending on whether Dems. can flip any of their 4 swing seats in Nate’s model. So of the 76 Republican takeover threats, Democrats have to beat back just over half of these challenges to retain the House. In 23 of these seats Republicans have a less than 50% chance of a takeover, meaning that Dems. only need to retain 16 of the remaining 53 seats where Republicans have a better than even chance of a pickup. In this series of diaries I will review the 63 seats which Nate’s model ranks in categories of "lean", "even chance" and "possible" takeover opportunities. Today I will focus on such seats in New York and Ohio.
Presented below are the swing districts, the % chance of a Republican takeover in the district based on Nate’s model, the names of the candidates, campaign cash on hand, any recent polling results, and of course, links to the Dem. candidate’s site.
New York:
NY-19 - 70% takeover chance Hayworth (R) vs. Hall (D)
Polls: 9/12/10 - 44% R 42% D ("Dem. poll")
Cash: Hayworth (R) = $562,555; Hall (D) = $504,555
Web Site: Help Hall
As indicated by the poll, this is a tight race, much tighter than the 70% takeover threat would suggest. With regard to campaign cash, our man John is a little behind, so he could really use our help. Also, NY-19 lies just a little ways upstate from NYC, so I would encourage you NYC folk to head north for a little GOTV for John as you take in the Fall foliage. BTW – For you 70s folk, John Hall was a member of the group "Orleans" which some of you might remember. He’s a really great guy. Also, if you’re a "Jackson Brown" they’re playing a benefit concert for John on October 16. Check out John’s campaign site for tickets.
NY-24 - 56% takeover chance Hanna (R) vs. Arcuri (D)
Polls: 9/15/10 - 40% R 48% D ("Independent poll")
Cash: Hanna (R) = $500,070; Altmire (D) = $601,729
Web Site: Help Arcuri
This is the race Nate talked about above. If you look at the generic poll in this Central New York district we are losing, but the district poll of the candidates suggests we are winning. To me this illustrates the importance of running good strong candidates, and Mike is one of the best. Please give him your support. This is one of the races we HAVE TO WIN!
NY-23 - 24% takeover chance Doheny (R) vs. Owens (D)
Polls: 8/1/10 - 39% R 41% D ("Rep. poll")
Cash: Doheny (R) = $471,463; Owens (D) = $599,805
Web Site: Help Owens
This race shouldn’t be as tight as the above poll indicates. Since it was taken in early August things have tightened. Also, this is the seat that Bill Owens won in 2008 when it was a three way race between the moderate Republican leadership’s candidate and the far right conservative Hoffman. Well Bill’s in luck again, because Hoffman, the darling of the northern Tea Party crowd is again making it a 3-way race by continuing to run on the Conservative Party line. This should split the right/far right vote to once again give Bill a good chance to retain his seat with our help.
Ohio:
OH-16 - 79% takeover chance Renacci (R) vs. Boccieri (D)
Polls: 8/17/10 - 49% R 35% D ("Rep. poll")
Cash: Renacci (R) = $662,612; Boccieri (D) = $1,060,563
Web Site: Help Boccieri
Although I wouldn’t put much stock in a Republican poll conducted back in mid-August, John still has quite an uphill battle to retain this seat. John appears to have a good cash advantage, but will need a strong GOTV effort to retain this seat. So if you live around the Cleveland area, please consider signing up for GOTV to help John (OH-16 is just a little south of Cleveland).
OH-15 - 76% takeover chance Stivers (R) vs. Killroy (D)
Polls: 8/21/10 - 49% R 44% D ("Rep. poll")
Cash: Stivers (R) = $1,242,961; Kilroy (D) = $933,626
Web Site: Help Kilroy
Although it’s a 76% takeover threat, this race is rated lean GOP to toss up, its very tight. However, Mary Jo could really use some campaign cash to close up the money gap down the home stretch. So if you’re looking for a close race that needs cash where you can get the most political bang for your buck, please consider visiting Mary Jo’s site and dropping a $10 spot on her.
OH-18 - 40% takeover chance Gibbs (R) vs. Space (D)
Polls: 8/4/10 - 43% R 43% D ("Rep. poll")
Cash: Gibbs (R) = $209,534; Space (D) = $1,267,997
Web Site: Help Space
I know, I know, Zack Space is not the most progressive member of Congress (understatement), but its a seat we need to retain. So unless you would rather see the Tan Man in Nancy’s chair, please swallow your animosity and give Space some support (or is that support some space?)
OH-6 - 32% takeover chance Johnson (R) vs. Wilson (D)
Polls: None
Cash: Johnson (R) = $147,612 Wilson (D) = $607,677
Web Site: Help Wilson
Its these districts with no polls and weak takeover threats that bother me the most. Its easy for our side to get complacent. So let’s support Charlie and make sure he wins.
Well, those are the New York and Ohio swing seats (according to Nate). Please get out and support these candidates. Also, please check out my previous Diary where I cover the swing races in Pennsylvania and Colorado. Below are the links to those Pennsylvania and Colorado Dem. candidates who need our help, and any new polling:
PA-3 - 60% takeover chance Kelly (R) vs. Dahlkemmper (D)
Polls: 9/19/10 - 44% R 38% D ("Independent poll")
Web Site: Help Dahlkemper
PA-4 - 28% takeover chance Rothfus (R) vs. Altmire (D)
Web Site: Help Altmire
PA-7 - 72% takeover chance Meehan (R) vs. Lentz (D)
Web Site: Help Lentz
PA-8 - 53% takeover chance Fitzpatrick (R) vs. Murphy (D)
Polls: 9/19/10 - 49% R 35% D ("Independent poll")
Web Site: Help Murphy
PA-11 - 63% takeover chance Barletta (R) vs. Kanjorski (D)
Web Site: Help Kanjorski
PA-12 - 56% takeover chance Burns (R) vs. Critz (D)
Web Site: Help Critz
CO-3 - 56% takeover chance Tipton (R) vs. Salaza (D)
Web Site: Help Salazar
CO-4 - 72% takeover chance Gardner (R) vs. Markey (D)
Web Site: Help Markey
CO-7 - 26% takeover chance Frazier (R) vs. Perlmutter (D)
Web Site: Help Perlmutter
That’s all for this week! Hope to do more races next week. But, before I go I would like to leave you with this somewhat optimistic quote from
Nate's Latest Analysis of House races:
Democrats have also become somewhat more aggressive over the past few weeks in releasing the results of internal polls conducted by their campaigns. This will not necessarily help them in our forecasts, as such polls are subject to heavy adjustments. Nevertheless, it may be a sign of at least modestly improved confidence in some local races, as Democratic campaigns had been conspicuously quiet about disclosing the results of such polls before Labor Day.
It is important to maintain some perspective here: Republicans are poised to make very substantial gains in the House. They are favored to take control the chamber, and have a 40 percent chance of winning a net of at least 50 seats, and about a 20 percent chance of winning at least 60 seats.
Still, as the results of this week’s primaries perhaps suggested, there remains considerable uncertainty — and ambiguity — in the forecast. A 95 percent confidence interval on our projections would encompass everything from a Republican gain of 78 seats to a gain of just 12. Although that interval will narrow some before Election Day, there’s still a lot of campaigning — and poll-watching — left to do.
CONTRIBUTE AND GOTV!