First appeared in the 9/27 edition of Bartcop Entertainment; edited, primarily for format with a few new links, for DKos.
The case FOR Democrats
In the past few weeks, I've gone over why no sane person would vote for any Tea Party Republican: introduced in The Campaign Begins, and more formal essays/links in The Rhetorical Gloves Are Off, In Karl Rove's Face. But it's not enough to vote against a candidate, I like to vote for a candidate. At minimum, I want someone in office who will support the positions I do and play well with others who also support the positions I do. 100% congruency is very rare, and I'm willing to treat politics as a vector: Heading in the right direction is good.
Continued under the fold.
The Benedict Arnold Express has got me mad. Even if you don't buy into everything that this Congress has done, you have to weigh in favor of the good. When you compare and contrast the Democratic Party comes out as the clear winner. This is an important election.
Barack Obama has been a good president, and the Democratically controlled Congress has done a good job
They haven't been perfect, and it's taken a long time to unravel eight years of Bush (most of which were with GOP control of both houses of Congress), but the overall record is impressive.
When removed from the Big Lies from the right, most of the accomplishments of Obama and the Democrats remain popular. And for the right reasons. For example, outside the disgraceful and highly partisan glare of the conservative US news media Obama And U.S. Remain Popular Overseas NPR 6/17/10. More on this on the section on polls, below.
Obama's accomplishments are historic and popular
- Obama signs into law expansion of SCHIP health-care program for children; "Passage of $33 billion bill marks historic shift in Washington's political landscape" less than a month after taking office. Chicago Tribune 2/5/09
- Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act extending the statute of limitations for filing pay discrimination lawsuits.
- Confirming Sonia Sotomayor as Supreme Court Justice. She had been chosen to be on the Court of Appeals by GHW Bush, and was, at the time, its youngest judge.
- Eliminating wasteful spending. Big Government Republicans couldn't cut spending, but Obama and the Democrats did. Obama wins more spending cuts than Bush Washington Times 1/14/10.
- The most sweeping changes to the credit card industry in 40 years. Obama signs into law credit card reform USA Today 9/22/09.
- Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act Consumerism Commentary 6/23/09. Finally, the country's most deadly drug is regulated. "A new law signed by the president yesterday gives the Food and Drug Administration the ability to regulate the tobacco industry. The primary focus of the law is to stop cigarette companies from aggressively marketing to children" and it is now illegal to "place outdoor tobacco ads within 1,000 feet of schools and playgrounds".
- Obama ends embryonic stem cell research ban Scientific American 3/9/09 (though an activistU.S. Judge Rules Against Obama's Stem Cell Policy NY Times 8/23/10 however Stem cell research injunction lifted Michigan Radio 9/9/10.)
- And even those who disagree with Obama's Bush-like approach to terrorism suspects have to agree that at least we know what's done in our name. Good government groups give Obama high grades on lobbying, transparency. "The cumulative effect of the Administration's actions has been to adopt the strongest and most comprehensive lobbying, ethics and transparency rules and policies ever established by an Administration to govern its own activities," says Common Cause, Democracy 21, League of Women Voters and U.S. PIRG.
- A comprehensive list of Obama Administration Achievements (Thus Far) is at Obama's Achievements Center
Health Care Reform
For over a hundred years, since Teddy Roosevelt, many presidents tried to pass some version of Health Care Reform, but it took Barack Obama and Democratic control of both houses to get it done.
Health Care Reform is popular, and specific provisions very popular, and people want more. salon.com 9/25/10 (click through the ads):
A new AP poll finds that Americans who think the law should have done more outnumber those who think the government should stay out of health care by 2-to-1.
"I was disappointed that it didn't provide universal coverage," said Bronwyn Bleakley, 35, a biology professor from Easton, Mass.
More than 30 million people would gain coverage in 2019 when the law is fully phased in, but another 20 million or so would remain uninsured. Bleakley, who was uninsured early in her career, views the overhaul as a work in progress.
The poll found that about four in 10 adults think the new law did not go far enough to change the health care system [emphasis mine -- BDR], regardless of whether they support the law, oppose it or remain neutral. On the other side, about one in five say they oppose the law because they think the federal government should not be involved in health care at all.
I referenced this last week, but it bears repeating here: Shhh... The Health Care Bill is Working (Just Don't Tell Anyone) DKos Diary from jpmassar 9/12/10 re success of early provisions that now cover tens of thousands.
Contrast with: Huckabee Opposes Insurance For People With Pre-Existing Conditions TPM 9/17/10 "People with pre-existing conditions, he explains are like houses that have already burned down." The official death of "compassionate conservatism" or simply another Big Lie exposed?
Obama lowered taxes for most Americans
Taxes have gone down under Obama. The Misinformed Tea Party Movement Forbes, 3/19/10:
For an antitax group, they don't know much about taxes.
In short, no matter how one slices the data, the Tea Party crowd appears to believe that federal taxes are very considerably higher than they actually are, whether referring to total taxes as a share of GDP or in terms of the taxes paid by a typical family.
Tea Partyers also seem to have a very distorted view of the direction of federal taxes. They were asked whether they are higher, lower or the same as when Barack Obama was inaugurated last year. More than two-thirds thought that taxes are higher today, and only 4% thought they were lower; the rest said they are the same.
As noted earlier, federal taxes are very considerably lower by every measure since Obama became president [emphasis mine -- BDR]. And given the economic circumstances, it's hard to imagine that a tax increase would have been enacted last year. In fact, 40% of Obama's stimulus package involved tax cuts. These include the Making Work Pay Credit, which reduces federal taxes for all taxpayers with incomes below $75,000 by between $400 and $800.
According to the JCT, last year's $787 billion stimulus bill, enacted with no Republican support, reduced federal taxes by almost $100 billion in 2009 and another $222 billion this year. The Tax Policy Center, a private research group, estimates that close to 90% of all taxpayers got a tax cut last year and almost 100% of those in the $50,000 income range. For those making between $40,000 and $50,000, the average tax cut was $472; for those making between $50,000 and $75,000, the tax cut averaged $522. No taxpayer anywhere in the country had his or her taxes increased as a consequence of Obama's policies.
It's hard to explain this divergence between perception and reality. Perhaps these people haven't calculated their tax returns for 2009 yet and simply don't know what they owe. Or perhaps they just assume that because a Democrat is president that taxes must have gone up, because that's what Republicans say that Democrats always do. In fact, there hasn't been a federal tax increase of any significance in this country since 1993.
The Stimulus is working
A Welcome Step In The Right Direction; a dramatic chart showing how the arc of job losses under Bush and the rise of job creation under Obama.
The Stimulus is working, though not quickly: New Consensus Sees Stimulus Package as Worthy Step NYTimes (reg required) 11/20/9:
The legislation, a variety of economists say, is helping an economy in free fall a year ago to grow again and shed fewer jobs than it otherwise would. Mr. Obama's promise to "save or create" about 3.5 million jobs by the end of 2010 is roughly on track, though far more jobs are being saved than created, especially among states and cities using their money to avoid cutting teachers, police officers and other workers.
"It was worth doing it's made a difference," said Nigel Gault, chief economist at IHS Global Insight, a financial forecasting and analysis group based in Lexington, Mass.
Mr. Gault added: "I don't think it's right to look at it by saying, 'Well, the economy is still doing extremely badly, therefore the stimulus didn't work.' I'm afraid the answer is, yes, we did badly but we would have done even worse without the stimulus."
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act passed by Obama and the Democrats in 2008 (vs. TARP, passed under Bush) contains a jobs bill (which includes "expanding and making permanent a popular credit for businesses' research and experimentation expenses, and allowing them to write off the full value of new equipment purchases through 2011"), numerous tech provisions (which includes "$7.2 billion for broadband deployment to rural and other unserved areas.") and numerous health provisions (which includes "Health IT security" and "Patient-centered cognitive support").
Indeed, while the Tea Party Republicans (who can't add and subtract) dispute some of the numbers, the Council of Economic Advisors paints a different picture: Economic stimulus has created or saved nearly 2 million jobs, White House says Washington Post 1/13/10 and more recently Stimulus saved or created 3 million jobs: Obama aides. For example, Republican governor Charlie Crist's recovery chief says the stimulus has created an estimated 167,000 jobs St. Petersburg Times 9/20/10.
Meanwhile, the conservative news media is not helping to distinguish TARP and the stimulus. Only a third of Americans (34%) correctly say the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) was enacted by the Bush administration. Pew Research 7/10. That leads to (at least) Two dangerous myths about the stimulus: "Myth 1: TARP and the stimulus are the same thing" and "Myth 2: Stimulus cannot stimulate". Obama knows the difference, and so should you.
Estimates Say Fewer Jobs, Larger Deficits if Republicans Were in Charge Newsweek 8/26/10.
The horserace makes better tv than the horse: Tracking the polls
Today's information intensive, instantaneously delivered, society has some major advantages when it comes to informing the electorate. Unfortunately, it also has a downside: When there's no news, a 24-hour "news" station or daily blogger needs to fill the time anyway, and the conservative news media just makes shit up. This is especially true about polls: After correctly predicting that Al Gore won the 2000 election, pollsters tried to "fix" their polling methods to allow for all sort of biases, real or partisan. This is why polls tend to be all over the map, and the era of non-partisan research is squeaking to a halt.
The conservative news media likes to exaggerate or outright invent a narrative where Obama and the Democrats are unpopular. Bush and the Republicans left a sour anti-Washington taste in everyone's mouth. The Democrats haven't pounced; Obama was trying to be "non-partisan" while the Tea Party Republicans played politics-as-usual with a slimy insistance on "bi-partisan" cynicism. But not everyone has the attention span of a gnat and Republicans remain more unpopular than the Demorats.
Compare CBS News/New York Times Poll. Sept. 10-14, 2010
Republicans 20% approve, 68% disapprove
Democrats 30% approve, 58% disapprove.
Hardly good news for anyone, but way off from the mainstream media narrative that the anti-Washington fervor is directed mainly at Democrats. Most people are still very mad at Bush and the Republicans, and the teabaggers are driving people away from the Republican party in droves, and will cost them the Senate and hurt them regionally in the House.
You can have all sorts of fun with Gallup polls on presidential approval ratings, and compare Obama's ratings with various other presidents at the same time in their presidency. For example, Obama is about the same place Reagan was in the fall of 1982 and W was just before 9/11. What does this mean? Mostly, that the honeymoon for any president is over after a year or so. See also chart on lower right of Gallup's main page
As mentioned last week, Gallup poll "shock" part two: Democrats lead generic
9/20/10 dKos diary about Gallup poil. The tide is turning, thanks to the Teabaggers?
One clue as to how conservative the polling is: Most avoid polls that favor Democrats, or make the story about the Republican even if they're losing, and harp on any slight Republican glimmer of hope. Further, they on't ask more revealing questions of the secessionist and birthers, such as How wrong was Galileo? or Were you kidnapped and probed by aliens?
Climate Change is a wedge issue, and it's in our favor to push it. Global Warming deniers simply don't live in the world G_d created. Conservative are, quite literally, dirty politicians. The Democratic Party is doing much better, but can't get past the dirty Republicans.
Some new polls, from Monday on Daily Kos:
Moving forward
Remember: Obama and the Democrats are the change. We want to continue moving forward.
Be passionate! We're the good guys!
A couple of ads from Demorats c/o blackwaterdog on Daily Kos, which also has uplifting videos and speeches:
Change That Matters
Good Dog! Bad Republicans!
And a few more, just to drive home the point:
"I Apologize"
Not Your America! New Democratic Ad on how the Tea Party Republicans are embarrassing real Americans: