What should Kerry do initially in office? How does he avoid Clinton's mistakes? How do today's dynamics (all moderate Dem Congress to all radical Rep Congress) change the moves Kerry should make vs. those Clinton should have?
Many of Clinton's critics have said that his biggest mistake was leading with his left foot. Critics say he should have passed the most conservative elements of his plan first, and thereby burnished his moderate cred. Naively enough, he thought have a government completely controlled by Democrats might just be able to pound out a healthcare plan. Silly Clinton, discipline is for Republicans. So what should Kerry do?
Of course, Kerry's already posted the
highlights of such a plan. These are the bullet points:
(1) A New National Education Trust Fund
We will propose a National Education Trust Fund to make sure that, for the first time ever, we fully fund our schools so they have the tools to assure our kids can succeed in the 21st century economy. We will make a new deal on education - if Washington is going to mandate something for our schools, then the funding should be mandatory.
2) A New Era of National Service
John Kerry will call on Americans of all ages - from students to America's seniors - to serve in our classrooms, after school programs, nursing homes and nursery schools. We will fight to allow students to earn four years of college tuition in exchange for two years of national service.
(3) End the `Era of Ashcroft'
John Ashcroft has launched an all-out assault on individual rights, allowing for a wholesale invasion of attorney-client conversations, e-mails and telephone calls. Immediately after the election, John Kerry will name a new Attorney General whose name is not John Ashcroft. We will also fight to protect women's rights, civil rights and workers rights and enforce anti-trust laws.
(4) Repeal Bush Assault on the Environment and
Make U.S. Energy Independent
We will rollback the George W. Bush assault on clean air and clean water and work to strengthen our nation's environmental laws. Kerry will also put forward a plan to make the U.S. energy independent of Middle East oil in ten years--and create 500,000 jobs by investing in energy renewable sources, such as ethanol, solar, and wind.
(5) Rejoin the Community of Nations
We will immediately declare the Bush policy of unilateralism over and work to rebuild our shattered alliances all across the globe. We will launch a successful war against terrorism and also restore trust here at home and abroad by making sure that America always tells the whole truth.
(6) First Major Legislative Plan: Affordable Health Care
John Kerry's first major proposal to Congress will be a realistic plan that stops spiraling healthcare costs, covers every child in America, and makes it possible for every American to get the same health care as any Member of Congress.
(7) Reward Companies that Create Jobs not Phony Corporate Profit
We will work to reward companies that create jobs by helping with health care costs, a new manufacturing jobs tax credit and new assistance for small businesses. We will also close every single loophole for companies that take jobs offshore and apply new criminal penalties, such as RICO penalties, on companies that defraud their customers and workers.
(8) Create a Middle Class Economy and End the Privileged Class Economy
We will fight to repeal the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans so that we can invest in education and health care. We will also protect middle class tax cuts, such as the child credit and the elimination of the marriage penalty and propose additional tax credits to help middle class families make ends meet.
(9) Cut the Deficit in Half in Four Years
We will put forward a budget to restore fiscal sanity, eliminate corporate welfare, and cut the deficit in half in four years. However, we will keep our compact to seniors by securing Medicare and Social Security and protecting our children and veterans.
(10) End Influence Peddling and Secret Deals
We will reinstate the five-year ban on lobbying so that government officials - like Bush's former campaign manager and FEMA director - cannot cash in by peddling influence. We will also shine the light on the secret deals in Washington by requiring every meeting with a lobbyist or any special interest deal inserted into a bill by a lobbyist be made public.
This is an interesting plan. I'd move around some of the priorities though. Ending the "era of Ashcroft" will be first because a lot of that will end with the new AG. Ditto with number 10, which basically boils down to "reducing corruption". He can get started on "rejoining the community of nations" on his first day in office too.
But I think the first thing he pitches to Congress needs to be his healthcare plan. Before the National Service. Before the education trust fund. Before the environmental legislation.
The reason is simple: Kerry can't get deadlocked early. It'll make him look weak and it'll destroy his chances to pass anything but the most pro-GOP legislation. So he needs to get pitch something important that will probably pass. That's why the healthcare plan is so genius. Its major provision is tax cuts to corporations and small businesses that offer healthcare plans. It's second major provision is allowing Americans to buy into the Congressional healthcare plan, basically creating a low-cost government insurance company (if I understand it correctly) which could even provide a new government revenue source. Moderate Reps aren't going to vote against a tax cut proposal-- they get their lower taxes and Kerry gets to address an urgent public need.
The next thing should be comprehensive economic legislation. This is basically some combination of numbers 4, 7, and 8 above. Selling number 7 is the most important, I think. Rant about the multinationals and extoll the power of homespun American business like you're a latter-day Huey Long. The people will rally around you because people are seriously pissed about their jobs going overseas. And again, a major component of this plan is tax credits-- this time tax credits aimed most squarely at the states like PA, OH, and WV that produce Republicans that really need to vote for them. At heart this will have the trappings of a populist "protectionist" campaign--a strong focus on American jobs and small business. That's where the environmental legislation comes in. If we fold energy independence into populism and a strong American economy, we can sell it far easier than we could alone. Perhaps we should even put it in the same bill? Having spread out the tax cuts to deserving businesses, Kerry should then go after the Bush cuts. This will be a major controversy, but if both his healthcare and economic plans have succeeded, he should have enough political capital to push it through.
And then it gets fun. With revenue finally coming back into the government, Kerry can pitch the stuff that's based on spending instead of "crediting". National service/tuition relief and the National Educational Fund to get money to schools screwed by NCLB. With a sinking deficit, I think he can do it. But he can't lead with spending, IMHO.
So what do you guys think?
Update: Edited 11:05 to finish a previously incomplete sentence :(