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The GOP has already shown they'll play fast and loose with their own budget rules, exempting health reform repeal from they're new "CutGo" rule. So they've proven they care more about making petty political points than reducing the deficit, but here's what we're actually talking about: $230 billion in 10 years, and a trillion over the next two decades:

As a result of changes in direct spending and revenues, CBO expects that enacting H.R. 2 would probably increase federal budget deficits over the 2012-2019 period by a total of roughly $145 billion (on the basis of the original estimate), plus or minus the effects of technical and economic changes that CBO and JCT will include in the forthcoming estimate. Adding two more years (through 2021) brings the projected increase in deficits to something in the vicinity of $230 billion, plus or minus the effects of technical and economic changes.

But there's more:

Effects on the Number of People with Health Insurance

Under H.R. 2, about 32 million fewer nonelderly people would have health insurance in 2019, leaving a total of about 54 million nonelderly people uninsured. The share of legal nonelderly residents with insurance coverage in 2019 would be about 83 percent, compared with a projected share of 94 percent under current law (and 83 percent currently).

Effects on Health Insurance Premiums

If H.R. 2 was enacted, premiums for health insurance in the individual market would be somewhat lower than under current law, mostly because the average insurance policy in this market would cover a smaller share of enrollees’ costs for health care and a slightly narrower range of benefits. Although premiums in the individual market would be lower, on average, under H.R. 2 than under current law, many people would end up paying more for health insurance—because under current law, the majority of enrollees purchasing coverage in that market would receive subsidies via the insurance exchanges, and H.R. 2 would eliminate those subsidies.

Premiums for employment-based coverage obtained through large employers would be slightly higher under H.R. 2 than under current law. Premiums for employment-based coverage obtained through small employers might be slightly higher or slightly lower (reflecting uncertainty about the impact of the enacted legislation on premiums in that market). [emphasis mine]

Americans would be paying more for less, because remember that the prohibitions on recissions and denying coverage on the basis of pre-existing conditions would be gone. Additionally, a larger share of premiums would be going to administrative costs and not to actual health care--the minimum medical loss ratio that determines how much of a premium dollar has to be spent on care would be gone.

So to sum up, the American people would pay more for less. Meanwhile, the deficit would be substantially increased. The Republican way. While this is all kabuki to play to the teabagger base, and repeal won't actually happen, it's important to know this about the Republicans: they don't care about the deficit. The GOP base doesn't care about the deficit. Their so-called principles are a sham.

(Note: in a previous story, I linked to a CBO estimate from August, 2010 that estimated repeal of Medicare provisions adding as much as $455 billion to the deficit in the next decade. That estimate was specific to repeals Sen. Mike Crapo asked about regarding his bill that would have repealed the Medicare sections of the law. The savings from Medicare are offset in the bill as a whole with increases in other spending as well as other revenue increases, which got us to $143B in net deficit reduction in the first decade and over a trillion in the second decade last year.  Since we're now a year later, we're getting into a year of the bigger deficit reductions in the out decade, hence the $230B in deficit increases between 2012-2021 that would come as a result of repeal.)

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 10:50 AM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  But it can all be paid for with... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Positronicus, msmacgyver
    rainbows, fairy dust and John Boehner's tears.

    "Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities." --Voltaire

    by Gangster Octopus on Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 10:53:52 AM PST

  •  But isn't HCR a corporate giveaway? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    vitovee

    Don't we think it's a bad law?

    "This is harder than it looks." -- Van Jones

    by LarsThorwald on Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 10:54:08 AM PST

    •  Not good enough I think was the verdicvt but (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ferg, Loge, judyms9

      better than nothing at all

      "Another world is not only possible, she is on her way. On a quiet day, I can hear her breathing." Arundhati Roy

      by LaFeminista on Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 10:56:39 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  No, pretty sure the verdict from many was kill it (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        moonpal

        I recall Kos saying kill it.  

        "This is harder than it looks." -- Van Jones

        by LarsThorwald on Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 10:57:29 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Fact: It was passed (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          judyms9

          BTW we don't count for very much or haven't you noticed?

          "Another world is not only possible, she is on her way. On a quiet day, I can hear her breathing." Arundhati Roy

          by LaFeminista on Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 10:58:46 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I know it was passed. (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Heftysmurf, moonpal, vitovee

            I am just wondering where the voices are who were against this.  Surely those people support repeal of HCR.  Right?  

            The point is, they don't.  The point is, it was a good bill but not a great bill, and the point is that unless the same people who wanted it killed aren't out there supporting it's repeal, then this was really all about -- as I suspected all along -- the progressive wing of the Democratic Party hurt because it didn't get its way.  

            The point is, those who complaind bitterly that this law shouldn't be passed and who complained it was a corporate giveaway and that mandates are bad, etc. should be posting diaries right and left supporting repeal, or else they are just demonstrating that it was political outrage that drove them, not genuine policy concerns.  

            That's all I have to say about this.  

            "This is harder than it looks." -- Van Jones

            by LarsThorwald on Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 11:03:41 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  It didn't go far enough and was a big dissappoint (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ferg, surfdog

              to many. personally I thought there was little to like and much more to do, its merely a starting point to real HCR.

              "Another world is not only possible, she is on her way. On a quiet day, I can hear her breathing." Arundhati Roy

              by LaFeminista on Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 11:11:28 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  It is (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Willa Rogers

                an endpoint for the forseeable future.  Remember, this was the accomplishment of 100 years of progressive dreams of healthcare reform, according to Barack Obama.

                Even here at dkos we're casting it forward to 2021.

                That this HC'r' is also such a political non-entity that repeal is even on the table should speak volumes to how seriously it under-reached in hewing to the apolitical corporate stooge consensus centrist line.

                People don't give a fuck about Obama's signature achievement, because it's a retrograde non-entity both in the context of what was needed and what was possible.

                People aren't stupid.  They'll recognize something that works for them, and not the Healthcare Denial Industry, the minute it comes down the pike.

                This wasn't it.  

                If we're still under this healthcare CF in 2021 we are truly feckless and truly screwed.

                Please don't feed the security state.

  •  They're entitled to their opinion. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JML9999, RickMassimo, msmacgyver, Loge

    CBS News asked Boehner whether that finding prompted concern that he is sending a signal that he is not serious about addressing the debt and deficit when the "the first major legislative action you take will increase the debt."

    "Well, I do not believe that repealing the job-killing health care law will increase the deficit," Boehner replied. "CBO is entitled to their opinion, but they're locked within constraints of the 1974 Budget Act. Listen, even the actuaries at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid have made clear that this bill will not save the kind of money that was predicted earlier."

    http://www.cbsnews.com/...

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 10:54:08 AM PST

  •  Sounds like a good reason... (0+ / 0-)

    ...to let this bill die in the Senate.

    Float like a manhole cover, sting like a sash weight! Clean Coal Is A Clinker!

    by JeffW on Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 10:55:17 AM PST

  •  I have a bad feeling looking at recent events (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JML9999, msmacgyver

    it's going to be taken apart piece by piece.

    Social Security is the next target after HCR

    "Another world is not only possible, she is on her way. On a quiet day, I can hear her breathing." Arundhati Roy

    by LaFeminista on Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 10:55:48 AM PST

    •  dunno. they're falling apart pretty quickly (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LaFeminista

      and they caved quickly on the finance reform, the one time the Democrats stood up and dared the Republicans to oppose it.

      The current group of Republicans are looking all bark and no bite. Granted, that only helps if the Democrats are willing to stand up to them.

    •  Please don't domino Obama's (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Willa Rogers

      signature achievement Healthcare Denial Industry Resuscitation Act with Social Security.

      That's just too perverse.

      Please don't feed the security state.

  •  Their so-called principles are a sham (0+ / 0-)

    Always have been... always will be.

    When will our consciences grow so tender that we will act to prevent human misery rather than avenge it? Eleanor Roosevelt

    by IndyRobin on Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 10:55:57 AM PST

  •  House Rs suspend paygo rules for HCR repeal (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LaFeminista, Loge

    According to house rules passed by our R brethren in the House, every proposal that increases spending has to have a corresponding spending cut.

    Expressly exempting HCR repeal.

    Every bill has to have committee hearings.

    Expressly exempting HRC repeal.

    They want a vote without letting the cvountry know they are voting for more spending costs and less health care.

    Boehner: the only person to ever pass out checks to representatives on the floor of the House.

    by Inland on Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 10:56:13 AM PST

  •  yes.. indeed. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Loge

    We hold the moral high-ground when it comes to deficit spending.

    "To you I'm an atheist; to God, I'm the Loyal Opposition." - Woody Allen

    by soros on Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 10:58:24 AM PST

    •  True to a point (0+ / 0-)

      IF deficits were immoral, we'd have the moral high ground.  They're just another way of financing government.  We have the moral high ground on spending (our priorities are better) and on taxation (our tax ideas would be more fairly allocated).  I guess under Clinton and now Obama we've been more efficient on the deficit because we haven't increased it more than it needs to be, which is what the GOP is proposing here.  But that's a function of the fact they want spending to be inefficient corporate giveaways.  

      "This world demands the qualities of youth: not a time of life but a state of mind[.]" -- Robert F. Kennedy

      by Loge on Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 11:01:25 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  what ?? (0+ / 0-)

        we've been more efficient on the deficit because we haven't increased it more than it needs to be

        1.4/1.5 trillion dollar deficits are not more than its "needs to be" ?  And the deficit is going up another 400-500 Billion in the coming year (because of policies our party voted for.)

        "To you I'm an atheist; to God, I'm the Loyal Opposition." - Woody Allen

        by soros on Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 12:00:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  But All Our Insurance Premiums Would Go Down! n/t (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Betty Pinson
  •  Deficits only matter when it's our priorities (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ferg, RickMassimo, msmacgyver, Loge

    Republicans can spend as much as they want.

    It's been that way for the last 30 years. If our media wasn't willingly complicit, they'd report this simple fact.

    The invasion of Iraq was a war crime, a crime against humanity, and a crime against civilization. Prosecute the crime.

    by Positronicus on Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 11:05:43 AM PST

    •  Dick Cheney: "grrrrrrrrr, you're fired" (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Positronicus, RickMassimo

      http://www.ontheissues.org/...

      Cheney to Treasury: "Deficits don't matter"

      Former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill was told "deficits don't matter" when he warned of a looming fiscal crisis.

      O'Neill, fired in a shakeup of Bush's economic team in December 2002, raised objections to a new round of tax cuts and said the president balked at his more aggressive plan to combat corporate crime after a string of accounting scandals because of opposition from "the corporate crowd," a key constituency

      O'Neill said he tried to warn Vice President Dick Cheney that growing budget deficits-expected to top $500 billion this fiscal year alone-posed a threat to the economy. Cheney cut him off. "You know, Paul, Reagan proved deficits don't matter," he said, according to excerpts. Cheney continued: "We won the midterms (congressional elections). This is our due." A month later, Cheney told the Treasury secretary he was fired.

      May the forces of evil become confused on the way to your house. George Carlin

      by msmacgyver on Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 11:14:43 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  A Thousand Don Quixotes in Tin Foil Armor (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    msmacgyver

    That's what most Republicans are, but especially the far right ones (which begs the question "Are there any who are not far right?") They are riveted into their tin foil suits and busy tilting at their imaginary hordes of socialists, marxists, communists, "corrupt" (in the fevered mind of Darrell Issa) Democrats, baby killing doctors, welfare cheats, Muslim terrorists, uppity blacks, "illegal" brown skinned immigrants, atheists, Christmas killers, evil government regulators, and on and on. Their list of enemies to be gored is only limited by the demons that populate their puerile minds.  

    How the hell do people like this live, if the world around them is so scary? If I had their mind set, I'd fear my own shadow!

  •  I thought of something yesterday (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    msmacgyver

    we missed the boat completely on "Death Panels."  We said it was just an absurd argument about rationing care that wasn't born out by the facts.  The criticisms the left offered were that there's nothing wrong with reimbursing doctors for consultations on end of life decisions, on moral grounds and because a lot of the care provided is expensive and does nothing but prolong pain and suffering.

    The right, in the form of Sarah Palin, wasn't objecting to rationing of care, as such, but the fact that some people would chose to forgo life extending treatment.  (They're fine with rationing of care when it's done by the insurance companies, for instance.) In other words, the Death Panels smear was a recapitulation of the Terri Schiavo case!

    We need to call out future iterations of "Death Panels" by saying the GOP is doing what they say the left is doing -- making medical care decisions for other people, just like they did in 2006.

    "This world demands the qualities of youth: not a time of life but a state of mind[.]" -- Robert F. Kennedy

    by Loge on Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 11:08:20 AM PST

    •  Medical decisions effecting life and death (0+ / 0-)

      are made every single day by corporate bureaucrats concerned only with profits.

      The way to counter the jackassinine "death panel" meme would have been to point out the reality which we all live under: that healthcare  is rationed constantly, primarily so that corporate greedheads can afford vacation condos on the Las Vegas strip.

      This would have involved condemning the Healthcare Denial Industry for what it is, instead of resuscitating it as the centerpiece of Obama's 100 year achievement in Healthcare Reform.

      Reality squarely avoided.  Thanks Dems!

      So we're left in the strange position where Sara Palin is doing all the heavy lifting in the political thought meets reality department.

      At least she's trying.

      Please don't feed the security state.

  •  Not to mention (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ferg, msmacgyver

    the fact that our health care system will collapse under the ballooning costs of uncompensated care for the uninsured.

    Its a no-brainer.  

    Yes, PPACA, if implemented in its current form, will transform the health insurance industry into something closer to a public utility. Too bad.   Delivery of affordable health care to our nation is key to our economic prosperity, and to maintaining a productive society.  We need to keep our priorities straight unless we want to end up like a third world country.

    Proud member of the Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party.

    by Betty Pinson on Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 11:12:30 AM PST

  •  You lie! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ferg, RickMassimo, msmacgyver

    This will never happen in GOPland. Bohner's magical tears will act as force shields to prevent bad from ever occuring.

    As god is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly!

    by sizzzzlerz on Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 11:14:04 AM PST

  •  More Democratic messaging fail. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mftalbot

    The Senate and the White House should be focusing on governing. For all the bluster about Health Care repeal made by Republicans in the House, it's all symbolic. There's no reason to entertain the notion at all.

    Let them have their stupid political theater. But the Democrats buying tickets to said political theater signals to everyone else that maybe the play is worth seeing. It's not.

    Get in front of a camera and talk about JOBS, Democrats. Jebus. Lessons about messaging apparently not learned. Good job, Dems. Oy vey.

  •  What is an antonym for "reform"? (0+ / 0-)

    Now that the republicans want to repeal the health care reform, we need to come up with an antonym for reform to describe their proposal:

    Main Entry:  reform  
    Part of Speech:  verb  
    Definition:  correct, rectify  
    Synonyms:  ameliorate, amend, better, bring up to code, change one's ways, clean up, clean up one's act, convert, correct, cure, emend, go straight, improve, make amends, make over, mend, rearrange, rebuild, reclaim, reconstitute, reconstruct, redeem, refashion, regenerate, rehabilitate, remake, remedy, remodel, renew, renovate, reorganize, repair, resolve, restore, revise, revolutionize, rework, shape up, standardize, swear off, transform, turn over a new leaf, uplift  
    Antonyms:  hurt, impair, worsen  

    I think we should go with "Health Care Impairment" -- but any other suggestions?

  •  This all makes perfect sense... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RickMassimo
    ...if you remember that their entire intent is to bankrupt the US Government, so they can install their own version of AynRandLand(tm).

    Remember Grover Norquist? He hasn't gone away.

    "Ridicule may lawfully be employed where reason has no hope of success." Ed Brayton -7.75/-6.05

    by QuestionAuthority on Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 11:21:37 AM PST

    •  Interestingly, some are even turning on him. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      QuestionAuthority

      The execrable Frank Gaffney said yesterday that the presence of the equally-yet-differently execrable Norquist at CPAC was evidence of Sharia law creeping into even the conservative movement. (Norquist's wife is Muslim; he may be too, though I don't know.)

      Grab your popcorn and watch the coalition explode.

      Fight until we win. Then we can begin arguing about the details. - Kwickkick (RIP) 2009

      by RickMassimo on Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 11:34:25 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Our new attorney general wrote an article today: (0+ / 0-)

    As new state attorneys general take office in the coming week, I fully expect an increase in the ranks of the states fighting ObamaCare in court. Our lawsuit, together with a similar lawsuit filed by Virginia's attorney general, has exposed the health care law's threat to individual liberty and to the constitutional structure that the Founders designed as a means of protecting that liberty. The stakes are clear and compelling: If the courts deem the federal health care law to be constitutional, then there are no meaningful constitutional restraints on Congress's power to regulate virtually every facet of our lives.

    Those of us taking our oaths of office would do well to remember that the American people are not asking for promises of more government programs and more taxpayer spending. The people are asking only that we keep our word and uphold the Constitution.

    Pam Bondi is the attorney general of Florida.

    yeah right!

    what a long long four years it will be n Floriduh!

    "On any given Sunday, any team can beat any other team" Bert Bell "Except in 1972!" Mercury Morris

    by surfdog on Thu Jan 06, 2011 at 11:32:44 AM PST

  •  Government Mandates (0+ / 0-)

    There is nothing unconstitutional about mandating health care and there are many advantages.  People must buy car insurance mandated by the government. Read a good post about this subject at:

    http://centerleftprogressive.blogspo...

    •  The problem (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      veracityus

      with a mandate is that people will be forced to buy a shoddy product which will not provide comprehensive or affordable healthcare.

      You don't have to have a car.  You do have to have a body.  A body is innate to the human experience.  

      You don't really care if your car dies.  If your body dies, you care alot.

      The insurance model a poor model which contains an inherent devaluation of human life.  People aren't cars.

      People will be forced to spend money they cannot afford to gain access to system which will not serve them.  So even the insurance model breaks down.  Again, a body is way more important than a car.

      Are we really supposed to believe that a Healthcare Denial Industry that cannot efficiently meet the basic healthcare needs of the relatively well off will somehow turn around to start meeting the needs of the poor, the millions who do not and often cannot advocate for themselves already?

      It's lambs to the slaughter.

      It's a joke.

      Please don't feed the security state.

  •  why all the whining (0+ / 0-)

    on the postings on this article. First, left minded people need to remember you still have a Dem President and a Dem majority in the Senate. Between the two I'm sure they can come up with ways to go around what the majority of America wants, so don't sweat it. Crying about Boehner, after only one day as speaker, smells like desperation. He's ofcourse much better than Pelosi ever had the potential to be but what can you do in one day? Lastly, all the comments about the CBO over look the big picture which is because that dept. of the gov't has been politicized by B.Hussein and G.Bush before him you can't expect to get anything accurate. But wouldn't common sense tell you that if you add med insurance for 30 million people (or how many is it today?) and it will be paid for with taxpayer money, there is no possibility it will reduce any deficit of any kind. A lot of the healthcare package is 'paid for' by cuts to other programs, so those programs might go under-funded. just admit it if you have the guts, you cannot add that many insured people and it cost nothing or save money, it's ludicrous to pretend overwise. It will cost something, and that amount will be borne by taxpayers and will not be free, no matter how you'd like to frame it.

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