Given that 13.9 million people are still officially out of work, 6.2 million of them for more than six months, with another 8.4 million underemployed, 2.8 million so discouraged they haven't looked for work in the past month and others having dropped out of the labor force and not looked for work for a year or more, it's hardly a surprise that, 38 months after the Great Recession began, Americans cite jobs as their biggest concern. According to the latest Gallup Poll, at 35 percent, concern about the unemployment situation ranks at its highest level since October 1983, when it was 41 percent.
The top five responses to the question "What do you think is the most important issue facing this country today?" were:
Unemployment.............................35 percent
Economy in general.......................29 percent
Healthcare....................................16 percent
Dissatisfaction with government....12 percent
Federal budget deficit....................11 percent
Among Democrats, joblessness was a concern of 41 percent; among Republicans, 31 percent; among independents, 32 percent.
All told, 7 in 10 Americans mention some economic issue when asked to name the most important problem facing the country, and the top two problems Americans cite as the most important ones facing the country directly reflect on the economic situation in the United States.
As the chart below shows, in the past two years, the "economy in general" has switched places with "unemployment" several times.
Nearly 1.2 million new jobs were created during the past 14 months, something many observers - none of them Republicans - chalk up to intervention by President Barack Obama in the earliest days of his administration, most specifically an $814 billion stimulus package. A desperately needed intervention. But measured against the 8.8 million jobs lost during the Great Recession, and the more than 11.2 million-person job deficit, those 1.2 million news jobs haven't come close to fulfilling the need.
And, although the economy has been showing increasing signs of improvement for the past 20 months, the Dept. of Labor's monthly jobs reports have continued to disappoint and perplex. Each time the numbers are lower than expected, the optimists say, next-month-will-be-better. There is, indeed, evidence that the formulas used by the department's statistical division do a poor job of capturing the actual amount of jobs lost and created when the economy is turning down and again when it turns positive again. That has certainly proved true for lost jobs. We may not find out whether it's also true for jobs gained until next February.
Unlike the anemic number of newly created jobs Labor has reported in the past few months, the number of Americans making initial claims for unemployment benefits has taken a sharp turn downward. Much of last year that number was stuck around 450,000. Now, it's in the low 400,000s. This week it fell to 383,000, the lowest level in two-and-a-half years. But while that shows lay-offs are far lower than they have been, hiring has yet to grow proportionately.
What's most troubling for those millions out of work is that even if new job creation were to grow 25 percent faster than it did during Bill Clinton's two terms - say, around 300,000 a month - it would take until April 2014 to eliminate the job deficit. Few analysts predict the economy can sustain that level of job creation over so long a period.
Meanwhile, Democrats are seeking a new emphasis on putting Americans back to work. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, for instance, has been saying jobs, jobs, jobs:
In virtually every press conference, press release and media interview, she talks about jobs. On Wednesday, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also adopted the message, launching whenarethejobs.com, a website intended to mock House Republicans for focusing so heavily on health care and spending cuts. On Thursday, during a union-backed event calling for more government-funded infrastructure spending, Pelosi stood behind a podium with a sign that read “Jobs Now.” She used the word nine times in just over two minutes.
“Strengthening the middle class” and “reducing the deficit” are other phrases that form the core of Pelosi’s mantra now, and they are repeated often throughout the shrunken House Democratic Caucus. Pelosi hasn’t rolled out a new Democratic jobs bill this year, but one is expected soon, according to Democratic sources.
A good message. Too bad Democrats didn't push a modernized WPA-style jobs program two years ago when they actually had the votes - or at least might have had them - to actually set up such a program. Which could have made a difference in the 2010 mid-term elections. With the Republicans in charge of the House now, any such program is impossible. And with more GOP governors in place, plans like those of Gov. Rick Scott of Florida to reduce the amount of unemployment benefits and shorten the time out-of-work Floridians can collect them will make continued joblessness even more miserable than it's so far been.