I'm convinced Sarah Palin is going to run for president. If you aren't equally as convinced than you most certainly underestimate the size and mania of Sarah Palin's ego.
And why else would she have just hired Michael Glassier as her Chief of Staff?
So it seems settled, Sarah Palin will run for the republican nomination with the backing of a diverse coalition of xenophobic soccer moms, sociopathic gun collectors and Revolutionary War re-enactors. Go ahead and laugh, but these three constituencies make up nearly 70% of the republican primary electorate.
Now I know what you are thinking:
1. Haven't you seen her disapproval numbers?
2. Republicans would never nominate someone so unelectable.
3. So what? She could never win in the general election.
And my response:
1. Yes
2. Christine O'Donnell
3. True
Yeah, yeah, yeah, Sarah Palin has horrible, rotten disapproval numbers. Apparently a ton of people can't stand Sarah Palin, who could have guessed! But what really matters is what the republican voters in the early primary states think. So do Iowa republicans approve of Palin? 58% of them do. That's not a stellar number but if all 58% of Iowa republicans who approve of Palin caucus for her, she will head into New Hampshire full of steam. Her numbers in New Hampshire look a bit less rosy with the popular Mitt Romney still deciding whether he should/can run (the whole healthcare thing makes it tough for him). But after New Hampshire is South Carolina where Palin's endorsement of now governor Nikki Haley proved helpful to Haley's success. Sarah clearly resonates with a certain number of South Carolina republicans and having the state's governor presumably on your side can't hurt either.
But would republican primary voters really elect someone they know doesn't have much chance in the general election over someone who could make it a competitive race? Of course they would and they did it non-stop during the 2010 primary season. Remember Christine O'Donnell? Before the tea-bagger wing of the Republican Party took up O'Donnell as their cause célèbre, Congressman Mike Castle was the presumptive nominee for Delaware's Senate seat left vacant by Vice President Biden. Not only was Mike Castle a universally liked republican in a very democratic-friendly state, he was also a lock for the senate seat. It was a guarantee in a world where nothing is guaranteed. Enter tea-baggers, and you know the rest. What once was a guaranteed senate pick-up for republicans turned into a senate hold for democrats, all because the tea-baggers prefer ideological purity over electoral viability.
Of course, Sarah Palin could never, ever win a general election against Barack Obama. Despite how high the unemployment rate may remain, (due to failed Bush policies) Sarah will be up against a public that either downright despises her or is skeptical of her half-term stint as Governor which she cut short to make way for her transformation into a TV personality.
Sarah Palin probably won't be the next president of the United States. But it seems likely that the teabag powered Republican Party of today just might be dumb enough to make her their nominee.