Last week, the state across the river had its census numbers come out. This week, it is Missouri's turn. They will have 8 congressman representing come redistricting time. Who will be left out-- Carnahan, Luetkemeyer, or Hartzler?
Guess which portions of Missouri grew the fastest?The northwestern and GOP-tilted STL exurbs of Warren, Lincoln, and St. Charles, Pulaski (home to Ft. Leonard Wood), KC Northlands (Platte and Clay), and the Springfield-Branson-Nixa-Ozark and the Joplin-Neosho-Carthage areas of heavily Republican Southwest Missouri.
Democratic-tilted St. Louis City (and County) can't catch one break.
The city of St. Louis, hoping to see a population turnaround after nearly six decades of decline, fell to its lowest level in more than 100 years.
The new population numbers from the Census Bureau show the city at 319,000, down 8 percent from 2000. Population estimates had the city closer to 355,000.
As well, St. Louis County dropped, by 2 percent, taking its population to below 1 million people.
For the rest of the St. Louis region, it was good news. St. Charles County grew by 27 percent. Its largest city, O'Fallon, grew by nearly 72 percent, moving to the seventh largest city in the state. In 2000, it was 13th. It now has 79,329 people.
St. Charles County, with 360,485 residents, surpasses St. Louis city. Lincoln County also made strong gains, growing by 35 percent. Jefferson County is now the fifth largest county in the state, with 218,733 people, a 10.4 increase from 2000.
Even more bad news for St. Louis City (and County)
The city's population has dropped to a level not seen since the late 19th century, with some neighborhoods in the north losing more than 20 percent of their residents.
In all, the city lost 8 percent of its population from 2000, about 29,000 people.
St. Louis County also saw its population drop, by 1.7 percent, to below 1 million people. Meanwhile, the rest of the Missouri counties in the St. Louis region grew, based on new population numbers released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Illinois numbers released last week showed that seven of the eight counties in the Metro East grew, giving the metropolitan area 4.2 percent growth.
The city's population peak was 856,796 in 1950, and it has dropped steadily since then. It is now just slightly above its post-Civil War population.
St. Charles County, with 360,485 residents, surpasses the city of St. Louis. Lincoln County also grew, by 35 percent. Jefferson County is now the fifth largest county in the state, with 218,733 people, a 10.4 percent increase from 2000.
On the other side of the state, Kansas City saw its population increase by 4.1 percent, taking its population to 459,787. Jackson County, which includes Kansas City, grew by 2.9 percent. But it still is ranked second behind St. Louis County.
The Kansas City suburb of Lee's Summit grew 29.2 percent. Columbia grew by 28.4 percent, to 108,500 people. Springfield, Missouri's third largest city, grew by 5.2 percent, to 159,498.
St. Louis City, once thought to be rebounding, has fallen.
For the last several years, estimates issued by the U.S. Census Bureau in its annual American Community Survey showed the population in St. Louis rising steadily to more than 356,000 by 2009.
But new figures released Thursday based on the 2010 Census count found the city actually lost 37,000 people during the last decade. The population now stands at about 319,000, more than 10 percent less than estimated in 2009.
Why the wide discrepancies? Blame it on the nature of statistics, demographers say.
Estimates used in the American Community Survey are just that — estimates. And those figures, for the most part, are extrapolated from numbers gathered in the once-every-ten-year count. The further away from the initial count, the greater the margin for error.
Politics also play a role. Every year since 2003, Mayor Francis Slay's office has successfully challenged the Census Bureau's population estimate. Some years, Slay was able to have the Census Bureau alter the final numbers by the thousands, turning projected population losses into gains.
As expected, St. Charles, Warren, and Lincoln Counties led the way to skyrocketing growth:
ST. CHARLES COUNTY - O'Fallon and Wentzville led the way in population growth in St. Charles County over the past decade, according to newly-released U.S. Census Bureau statistics.
O'Fallon's official population is now at 79,329 - a gain of 33,160 or about 72 percent more than the city's 2000 total of 46,169.
Wentzville is at 29,070, up 22,174 from the 2000 total of 6,896. That's a jump of 322 percent.
The big decade-long increases for those cities in the official numbers issued Thursday came as no surprise as gains had been tracked in year-by-year estimates by the Census Bureau.
Among other big county gainers were Lincoln, up 35 percent (to 52,566 from 38,944) and Warren, up 33 percent (to 32,513 from 24,525.)
Here are some of the other municipal population totals in the three-county area:
* St. Charles, 65,794 (9 percent increase from 60,321 in 2000)
* St. Peters, 52,575 (up 2 percent from 51,381)
* Lake Saint Louis, 14,545 (up 43 percent from 10,169)
* Dardenne Prairie, 11,494 (up 162 percent from 4,384)
* Troy, 10,540 (up 56 percent from 6,737)
* Warrenton, 7,880 (up 49 percent from 5,281)
* Weldon Spring, 5,443 (up 3 percent from 5,270)
* Wright City, 3,119 (up 104 percent from 1,532)
* Cottleville, 3,075 (up 59 percent from 1,928)
* Moscow Mills, 2,509 (up 44 percent from 1,742)
* St. Paul, 1,829 (up 12 percent from 1,634)
* Winfield, 1,404 (up 94 percent from 723)
* New Melle, 475 (up 283 percent from 124)
* Augusta, 253 (up 16 percent from 218)
Declines were noted in Elsberry, which dropped 6 percent to 1,934; Portage des Sioux, down 7 percent to 328, and West Alton, down 9 percent to 522.
Election data for the St. Louis Metro and projections for the 2012 Presidential Elections/Senate Race by county.
Franklin County:
2010 Senate:
Carnahan (D): 32.9%
Blunt (R): 59%
2008 Governor:
Nixon (D): 51.3%
Hulshof (R): 46.8%
2008 Presidential:
Obama (D): 43.1%
McCain (R): 55.5%
2006 Senate:
McCaskill (D): 44.7%
Talent (R): 52.2%
2004 Presidential:
Kerry (D): 40.9%
Bush 43 (R): 58.3%
2012 Presidential Elections forecast: Safe R
2012 US Senate Election Forecast: Safe R
Jefferson County:
2010 Senate:
Carnahan (D): 38.9%
Blunt (R): 53.8%
2008 Governor:
Nixon (D): 63.9%
Hulshof (R): 34.4%
2008 Presidential:
Obama (D): 50.6%
McCain (R): 48.1%
2006 Senate:
McCaskill (D): 53.3%
Talent (R): 43.8%
2004 Presidential:
Kerry (D): 49.4%
Bush 43 (R): 50.0%
2012 Presidential Elections forecast: Lean D, but trending increasingly R
2012 US Senate Election Forecast: Likely D
Lincoln County:
2010 Senate:
Carnahan (D): 33.4%
Blunt (R): 56.4%
2008 Governor:
Nixon (D): 52.3%
Hulshof (R): 45.4%
2008 Presidential:
Obama (D): 43.5%
McCain (R): 54.9%
2006 Senate:
McCaskill (D): 47.7%
Talent (R): 49.2%
2004 Presidential:
Kerry (D): 42.2%
Bush 43 (R): 57.0%
2012 Presidential Elections forecast: Safe R
2012 US Senate Election Forecast: Safe R
St. Charles County:
2010 Senate:
Carnahan (D): 35.3%
Blunt (R): 59.2%
2008 Governor:
Nixon (D): 53.8%
Hulshof (R): 44.5%
2008 Presidential:
Obama (D): 44.7%
McCain (R): 54.4%
2006 Senate:
McCaskill (D): 44.4%
Talent (R): 53.6%
2004 Presidential:
Kerry (D): 40.9%
Bush 43 (R): 58.6%
2012 Presidential Elections forecast: Safe R
2012 US Senate Election Forecast: Safe R
St. Francois County:
2010 Senate:
Carnahan (D): 38.7%
Blunt (R): 52.7%
2008 Governor:
Nixon (D): 63.5%
Hulshof (R): 34.6%
2008 Presidential:
Obama (D): 47.0%
McCain (R): 51.6%
2006 Senate:
McCaskill (D): 52.9%
Talent (R): 43.8%
2004 Presidential:
Kerry (D): 46.9%
Bush 43 (R): 52.7%
2012 Presidential Elections forecast: Tossup to Lean R
2012 US Senate Election Forecast: Lean D
Ste. Genevieve County:
2010 Senate:
Carnahan (D): 45.8%
Blunt (R): 47.1%
2008 Governor:
Nixon (D): 65.5%
Hulshof (R): 32.9%
2008 Presidential:
Obama (D): 56.4%
McCain (R): 42.3%
2006 Senate:
McCaskill (D): 55.6%
Talent (R): 41.4%
2004 Presidential:
Kerry (D): 52.6%
Bush 43 (R): 46.5%
Last time a GOP candidate won St. Genevieve was 1984 (Reagan).
2012 Presidential Elections forecast: Likely D
2012 US Senate Election Forecast: Likely D
St. Louis City:
2010 Senate:
Carnahan (D): 79.3%
Blunt (R): 18%
2008 Governor:
Nixon (D): 84.9%
Hulshof (R): 13%
2008 Presidential:
Obama (D): 83.7%
McCain (R): 15.5%
2006 Senate:
McCaskill (D): 79.1%
Talent (R): 19.1%
2004 Presidential:
Kerry (D): 80.3%
Bush 43 (R): 19.2%
2012 Presidential Elections forecast: Very Safe D
2012 US Senate Election Forecast: Very Safe D
St. Louis County:
2010 Senate:
Carnahan (D): 52%
Blunt (R): 44.6%
2008 Governor:
Nixon (D): 65.3%
Hulshof (R): 32.9%
2008 Presidential:
Obama (D): 59.5%
McCain (R): 39.6%
2006 Senate:
McCaskill (D): 55.2%
Talent (R): 43.1%
2004 Presidential:
Kerry (D): 54.4%
Bush 43 (R): 45.1%
2012 Presidential Elections forecast: Safe D
2012 US Senate Election Forecast: Safe D
Warren County:
2010 Senate:
Carnahan (D): 32.6%
Blunt (R): 59.9%
2008 Governor:
Nixon (D): 49.1%
Hulshof (R): 49.3%
2008 Presidential:
Obama (D): 43%
McCain (R): 55.7%
2006 Senate:
McCaskill (D): 45.1%
Talent (R): 52.3%
2004 Presidential:
Kerry (D): 40.7%
Bush 43 (R): 58.7%
2012 Presidential Elections forecast: Safe R
2012 US Senate Election Forecast: Safe R
Washington County:
2010 Senate:
Carnahan (D): 41.7%
Blunt (R): 50.6%
2008 Governor:
Nixon (D): 67%
Hulshof (R): 31.1%
2008 Presidential:
Obama (D): 49%
McCain (R): 48.9%
Obama won this county by 5 votes.
2006 Senate:
McCaskill (D): 56.8%
Talent (R): 39.6%
2004 Presidential:
Kerry (D): 48.6%
Bush 43 (R): 50.6%
2012 Presidential Elections forecast: Tossup to Lean D
2012 US Senate Election Forecast: Lean D
Population Changes by county:
Counties that grew population: Franklin, Jefferson, Lincoln, St. Charles, St. Francois, Ste. Genevieve, Warren, Washington
Counties that lost population: St. Louis City, St. Louis County