The actual liveblog has been posted (215PM CST 2-27-2011): Click here
Severe Weather Liveblog is a collective effort to keep Kossacks safe when a large severe weather outbreak takes place. These blogs will be posted as needed, based on user-interaction (comments) and duration of the severe weather event.
If you have emergency information that needs to be added to the diary (reports of tornadoes on the ground, emergency information telephone numbers, etc.), please indicate so in the subject line of the comment.
Right now, aside from myself, the editors of Severe Weather Liveblog are boatsie and Predictor. If you'd like to help, drop me a message.
Please keep in mind that any Severe Weather Liveblogs posted are not places for tasteless cracks at other people's expense. Post cheap political/social shots towards those affected at your own risk.
Okay campers, rise and shine, and don't forget your tornado shelter because it's dangerous out there today! It's dangerous out there every day. At least, that's how it seems this last week for folks in the mid-south.
Outlook
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk for severe weather today over the almost the exact same spot we had 250 reports of severe weather on Thursday. The moderate outlook area is centered on and covers most of Arkansas, and parts of Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois, and Missouri. A slight risk area radiates out from the moderate risk area, encompassing even more real estate from Texas to Ohio.
This is likely to be an overnight event, happening after sunset tonight and continuing well into tomorrow morning. Storms at night are even more dangerous than during the day, because most of the time you can neither see nor, if your asleep, hear the severe weather coming at you until it's too late. Now is a good time to make sure your weather radio is in good working order in case you need to wake up tonight. If you don't have a weather radio, leave your TV or AM/FM radio on overnight so you can hear the Emergency Alert System if a warning is issued.
From NWS Little Rock:
Here's the outlook area:
Area outlined in green is under a "slight risk" for severe weather, area in red is "moderate risk." Click image to go to outlook page on SPC's website.
From the text of the outlook*, the SPC has delineated two areas for the potential for severe weather:
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY MOVE AND/OR DEVELOP EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
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A SEPARATE AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM THE VICINITY OF A PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVERS. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY WITH A RISK FOR POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES /SOME POSSIBLY STRONG/ FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH.
*Since everyone asks why the NWS agencies type everything IN ALL CAPITAL LETTERS, it's because it's the standard set by the World Meteorological Organization. If everything is in capital letters, it's less likely that someone will misinterpret or misread something. Or, as Uncyclopedia says:
"The National Weather Service (NWS) is a U.S. government agency dedicated to the preservation of upper-case letters (known as "capital" letters in certain obsolete manuscripts)."
Here are the threats for individual types of severe weather. It's easy to misinterpret these maps, so don't sell the house and move the kids based on what they show. The outlines area denotes the probability (in percentage points) of a certain severe weather type taking place within 25 miles of a point within that area.
In other words, if Podunk, AL is in the 45% zone for damaging winds, it means that there is a 45% chance that there will be wind damage from strong thunderstorm winds within 25 miles of Podunk, AL. HOWEVER...that doesn't mean that it will happen, nor does it mean that it won't happen. There could be 100 reports of wind damage in and near Podunk, or nothing could happen. These maps are just a representation of the threat that the atmospheric conditions pose to a region.
Tornado threat today:
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point on the map. The hatched area indicates an increased possibility of strong EF2-EF5 tornadoes. Click image to go to SPC site, hover over "Tornado" for latest update.
Hail threat today:
Probability of 1" or larger hail within 25 miles of a point on the map. Click image to go to SPC site, hover over "Hail" for latest update.
Wind threat today:
Probability of 50 knot (58 MPH) wind gusts or greater within 25 miles of a point on the map. Click image to go to SPC site, hover over "Wind" for latest update.
The severe weather threat will continue tomorrow as any lines of severe thunderstorms that set up this afternoon/tonight are likely to continue pushing east, all the way to the coast. The highest risk for severe weather is from North Carolina to Pennsylvania, and everywhere in between from Ohio to the coast. The most likely type of severe weather will be damaging straight line winds, but a few tornadoes can't be ruled out.
Tomorrow's severe weather outlook from the SPC. Click the image to read the text of the outlook on the SPC's website.
Watches
Red = Tornado Watch ... Blue = Severe T'storm Watch ... Click image to go to SPC watch page.
Terminology
Tornado WATCH -- Conditions are favorable for tornado development. Keep an eye on the weather for quickly changing conditions.
Tornado WARNING -- A storm capable of producing a tornado (or already producing one) is imminent and there is a threat of danger. Do not delay, act immediately.
Tornado EMERGENCY -- A strong, violent tornado is confirmed on the ground and your life and property is in imminent danger. By now, there's no time to delay and you need to seek shelter.
PDS Watch -- A Particularly Dangerous Situation...a type of watch issued when there is a risk for extremely intense severe weather: violent tornadoes, very strong winds, or incredibly large hail. A PDS watch is...not good.
Severe Thunderstorm WATCH -- Conditions are favorable for the development of thunderstorms with 1" or greater hail and winds in excess of 58 MPH.
Severe Thunderstorm WARNING -- A thunderstorm capable of producing hail 1" or greater and winds in excess of 58 MPH is imminent.
Mesoscale Discussion -- An area of interest that the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted for possible severe weather development.
EF Scale -- The Enhanced Fujita Scale is the scale used in the United States to measure the intensity of tornadoes.
Tornado -- A violently rotating column of air that touches the ground from the base of a thunderstorm.
Funnel Cloud -- A violently rotating column of air that does not touch the ground from the base of a thunderstorm, but has the potential to become a tornado.
Links
National Weather Service
Storm Prediction Center
Wunderground
FEMA
American Red Cross
Salvation Army
Shameless Weather Radio Pimping
Get one. Seriously. Don't get the kind you have to turn on and move the antenna around and wait for the beep before you can leave a message. Get the kind that you have to program your county's code into and have it automatically go off when a warning is issued.
I have this one at home, and it's saved my ass quite a few times. I suggest you get the Midland WR-100C. It's 30 bucks from Amazon and worth every penny.
Each county/parish in the United States has a "SAME Code," a unique 6-digit code that one can program into the weather radio. The NWS embeds these codes into warnings and watches when they're issued, and the signal is picked up by your radio. When you program your county's code into the receiver, anytime a warning (tornado, severe t-storm, winter storm, or even child abduction emergencies, hazmat situations, evacuation orders, etc.) is issued for your county, it turns on with a rather loud tone and automatically tunes to the radio station reading the warning.
If you have one and need help setting it up, email me HERE and I'll be glad to walk you through it. You need to get one, it's really worth it. It's saved my ass a few times, and you know that's saying something because I'm glued to the radar 24/7. Things can slip by that should never do so, and one of these radios can help protect you from that happening.
Here's one of the radios in action (I took this video, actually):
Keep checking this diary throughout the day for updates. A new Severe Weather Liveblog will be posted as the situation warrants, or when this diary hits 200 comments, whichever comes first.