For want of a nail the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe the horse was lost.
For want of a horse the rider was lost.
For want of a rider the battle was lost.
For want of a battle the kingdom was lost.
Step back to a time before Tea Party (October, 2008 BTP). The California and Connecticut Supreme Courts have ruled that same-sex couples have a fundamental right to marry. Fifteen percent of the United States population is living in jurisdictions where marriage equality is the law. The prospect of LGBT equality moving forward rapidly has never seemed better.
Then Proposition 8 happened. (Yeah, it wasn't a nail. It was more like that giant asteroid which leveled Siberia. But I can be forgiven an imploded metaphor, can't I?)
Because California fell, NOM and it's Church allies, flush and successful, realized their power. Because of that, Maine's same-sex marriage law fell a year later. Because of Maine, New York couldn't find the momentum to pass it's marriage equality law a month after, and because of New York, all the wind went out of the sails of the effort to legalize same-sex marriage in New Jersey the following month.
Let's not dwell on such spilt legislative milk, but consider what is going to happen this week and next with the perspective of that sequence of events.
This week, possibly with the next few days, Maryland will or will not pass a marriage equality bill, and it will likely be decided by one or two votes in their House of Delegates. (Their Senate passed it last week.)
This week or next, the Rhode Island legislature will start considering their marriage equality bill in earnest. Can there be a doubt that a few key on-the-fence legislators will be influenced by the success or failure of the Maryland vote?
And in a month or two, the New York Senate will, if its leadership is true to its word, be considering legalizing same-sex marriage yet again. Many eyes in that body will be focused on the results in Maryland and Rhode Island. I would not be at all surprised, should Maryland and Rhode Island fail, if New York's effort were to evaporate into the mist.
In early 2012, decisions must be made in California as to whether or not to try to repeal Proposition 8 via a ballot initiative, and in Oregon whether to put a marriage equality initiative on the ballot. There is no doubt that these decisions will be based, in part, on what happens over the course of the next week in Maryland, and the next few months in Rhode Island and New York.
So, if you think my thesis has some merit, we are on the cusp of another chain of causality:
Maryland -> Rhode Island -> New York -> California & Oregon
That chain includes two of the biggest states in the nation and represents, in total more than 20% of the United States.
And the vote in the Maryland House of Delegates looks like it will succeed or fail by a vote or two.
Every call, every email to a Maryland Delegate is going to have an effect. Delegates must know that NOM and their allies aren't the only people who know how to contact them. Each Delegate represents only about 40,000 people, so contacting them will most certainly matter. And it's not like it's Republicans who will be responsible if this vote fails:
What can you do?
- If you are a Maryland resident, call and email your Delegates (you have three who represent you) using this tool from Equality Maryland or this website. Equality Maryland even has a script you can use which will call you! You can also check out phone banks organized by Equality Maryland here (down a bit on the right).
- If you know someone who is a Maryland resident, call them and have them call and email their Delegates (see above!).
- If you know someone who knows someone who is a Maryland resident, call them and ask them to call their Maryland friends or family to ask them to call their Delegates (see above!).
- Call and email the Speaker of the House of Delegates and tell him that the world is watching whether Maryland will vote for equality for all its citizens.
- If you are Stefani Joanne Angelina Germanotta, aka Lady Gaga, tell your followers in Maryland to call and email their representatives in the House of Delegates. See this diary, MD: Time to Release the Little Monsters! for details
- If you know Lady Gaga, or know anyone who knows Lady Gaga, or know anyone who might know how to get in touch with her, try to get the message to her to ask her to support the fight for marriage equality in Maryland as she did for Don't Ask, Don't Tell repeal and she recently did in New York State for marriage equality. See this diary, MD: Time to Release the Little Monsters! for details
- If you have any other ideas as to how anyone can help, leave them in the comments and I will update this diary with them.
For want of a phone call a Delegate was lost.
For want of a Delegate Maryland was lost.
For want of Maryland Rhode Island was lost.
For want of Rhode Island New York was lost.
For want of New York, California and Oregon were abandoned, and equality set back another four years.
Summary for Marylanders: Find your Delegates here or here or here. Main page for Maryland House of Delegates here.