Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/3-6, Missouri voters,
Dec. 2010 in parens):
Jay Nixon (D-inc): 45 (47)
Peter Kinder (R): 38 (39)
Undecided: 17 (14)
(MoE: ±4.0%)
Tom notes that Nixon is unusually popular - and has unusual crossover appeal:
Nixon has well above average approval numbers for a Governor in our polling, with 47% of voters happy with the job he's doing to 31% who express disapproval of him. Nixon's numbers have an unusual pattern by party. Only 60% of Democrats like what he's doing while 24% disapprove. That's a tepid level of support from within his own party. But he has almost as many Republicans — 32% — who approve of his performance as there are — 40% — who are unhappy. It's rare to see any politician come that close to breaking even across party lines. And he has very solid numbers with independents as well at a 48/26 spread.
These numbers, while great, are still a good bit removed from those absurdly gaudy POS numbers that showed Nixon with a 61-26 approval rating. I'm much more inclined to believe PPP's numbers. Kinder's favorables, I should point out, are just 25-24, but half the state still doesn't know him, so he has upside. Tom also points out that Nixon's lead with independents is just 3%, a far cry from the 30+ he beat Kenny Hulshof by in 2008. So I think you gotta give the edge to Nixon, but just given that this is Missouri here, it looks like it'll be competitive.