Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos & SEIU (MoE: ±3.1, 3/4-3/6, registered voters, Obama trendlines 2/24-27, all others 2/17-20):
|
FAVORABLE |
UNFAVORABLE |
NET CHANGE |
PRESIDENT OBAMA |
50 (49) |
46 (44) |
-1 |
|
APPROVE |
DISAPPROVE |
NET CHANGE |
PRESIDENT OBAMA |
50 (48) |
46 (45) |
+1 |
NANCY PELOSI |
30 (28) |
54 (56) |
+4 |
JOHN BOEHNER |
29 (30) |
37 (32) |
-6 |
CONGRESSIONAL DEMS |
38 (34) |
52 (54) |
+6 |
CONGRESSIONAL GOP |
33 (33) |
54 (51) |
-3 |
|
DEMS |
GOP |
NET CHANGE |
GENERIC BALLOT |
46 (42) |
42 (45) |
+7 |
By now you know how cautious I am when reading things into weekly (or bi-weekly) swings in our State of the Nation Poll - or any similar poll, for that matter. But the change in the generic ballot is rather interesting. Two weeks ago, Dems were under water by three; now they're up four. A seven-point shift is not exactly earth-shattering, but what makes this worth another look is
where that shift arose.
The answer? It happened almost entirely because of a huge swing among independents. In mid-February, indies favored Republicans by a 43-33 margin. Now, they prefer Democrats by an almost equally large spread, 41-33. That's an eighteen-point spike. Other good "temperature-taking" questions, like Obama's approvals and favorables, also saw jumps with independents, but only about half as big. (Same with views on Congressional Dems, which popped a bit, and Congressional Republicans, which moved down.)
The pessimist in me worries that the generic ballot movement among indies is simply "too big" - that it isn't supported by the other shifts among this group. The optimist says, hey, there's a reason why we ask different sorts of questions in the first place, and it's entirely possible to be more turned off by the thought of future Republicans than present Republicans. And of course, the cynic in me says this is just one poll - let's run a few more of these before we jump to any conclusions.