This is a very brief intro. What follows, with permission to use, are the running emails from Peter Ness, a geologist living in Tokyo, who holds Masters in Finance, Business and Science. Peter is a member of a professional organization I’m involved with, and his insights offer both a first-hand look at what people in Tokyo experienced, as well as the geological, financial and institutional insights of how Japan is responding to this compounding crisis.
3/11/2011, 9:15 PM, PST
Update on Tokyo-Japan
The earthquake yesterday was terrifying, being around 8.9 on the Richter
scale, hitting the Sendai-Miyagi area 380km north of Tokyo. There were
several huge earthquakes in succession, each lasting for at least 10-15
minutes with no respite, then a 5 minute lull then another set began.
The buildings were banging and bouncing around and it was real scary
stuff. Then the Tokyo earthquake 6.8 (60km from the city with Japan
scale 6M) hit 15 minutes after the Miyagi earthquake. They really were
very severe, even in Tokyo we could not stand up. The Miyagi quake was
160X that of Christchurch and even in Tokyo it was 10-50X larger
depending on where you were. Severe aftershocks occurred all night, with
reactivation of the Niigata earthquake (6.7 this morning). There were
around 18 aftershocks of +6, but everyone is waiting for the second big
one of +8M (most major quakes have 2 big ones within 3 days and if the
second one does not come, then it will probably come within 6-8 months).
My wife & I were working from home (unusual) and we had to squat in the
garage outside ready to run if the house collapsed...we expected it to
at any moment......the houses were moving anything up to 1/2 meter or
more at the top......but it is designed to handle +7 at the end of the
day it appears to be largely unscathed. Electricity line were like twigs
swaying in the breeze......
In Tokyo, only 10 people died but the trains, subways, air flights, gas
etc and mobile phones...even taxi services... were all down all day and
service recommenced for most today. The buildings look fine but a lot
probably have severe structural damage and another large earthquake (and
we will get one) will see a totally different result. Electricity, water
and internet were okay so everyone was using the internet to contact
their family. The houses were a mess inside with clothing, boxes, books
spewed out etc everywhere, pot plants tossed down the stairs, but no
real damage. The kitchen cupboards locked automatically so nothing was
broken, the gas auto-shut down and had to be re-set.....but it was a
very scary night as the aftershocks just kept coming, wave after wave
all night long. The house and ground has not stopped moving over the
last 24 hours, even when there are no quakes everything is still swaying
from side to side.....continuously......no respite...very dizzying.
Over 4 million people had to sleep at their offices last night. At Tokyo
Disneyland the earthquake squeezed water out of the ground and formed
large puddles of water. The fire and ambulance sirens were going all
night and today hundreds of helicopters (mainly military) and jets were
flying north. It looked and sounded like a war zone. Today the trains
are back in operation and supermarkets are operating so we can buy basic
food etc. I never saw anyone panic and in Tokyo at least the reaction
has been very orderly, but there was some panic buying last night (or so
I am told).
In Miyagi and Sendai prefectures the story is different with between
1-2,000 people dead or missing. Four trains loaded with passengers have
vanished, washed out to sea. The tsunami were devastating and terrifying
- I guess you saw TV footage with burning houses, semi-trailers and
large buildings caught up in the Tsunami(s). An oil refinery in China
(30km from Tokyo) is still burning (can we blame the Libyan rebels for
that?) ....and despite what you see in the media two nuclear power
plants are almost certainly close to meltdown.
Anyway, we are all hunkered down with bags and supplies at out doors
waiting for the next big one to come, and regardless to whom you speak
everyone really is expecting another 8+ to hit near Tokyo in the next
few days. Looking at the damage I would estimate (hard to put a number
on it) somewhere between 50 and 300 billion dollars damage, probably
closer to the upper figure, because even though buildings and
infrastructure look like they could handle an even larger quake, and you
could stay in them during a quake, it is an illusion, they most
definitely cannot.
regards
Peter Ness
3/12/2011, 6:49 PM, PST
We learnt late night that 10,000 people are definitely missing from one city alone in Minamisanriku (Miyagi prefecture).....only 7,500 have been located...the rest are probably dead. The Japanese government sent 50,000 military troops to Miyagi yesterday morning and another 50,000 were activated this morning. The US activated + 30,000 of US troops stationed in Japan yesterday. Half the Japanese & US (7th?) fleet appear to have arrived in Miyagi prefecture, including two US aircraft carriers and hundreds of helicopters. It started snowing in Miyagi as well as in Niigata and Nagano late yesterday afternoon where local train lines have been cut by severe aftershocks.
There was a lull in aftershocks yesterday afteroon, but it started again at around midnight with 3-4 large shocks during the night. We have a strong aftershock as I write and my mobile phone is giving a warning buzz to evacuate...but it was only a 4-pointer and subsided within 30 seconds whilst I was switching the gas off and rounding up the cat. It was Japan magnitude 3M. For an approximation, and although it is a log scale, if you add about 1.2 you get an idea of earthquakes strength on the Richter scale. These earthquakes are Japan-wide as new faults are getting reactivated all the time....may be good as it reduces the chance of another big one.....but there have been with 18 greater than 7 on the Richter scale, most near Miyagi.
Unfortunately, the mobile phone is only buzzing when the earthquakes come from the north-west (Niigata-Chiba) direction, so some of the the Miyagi-Sendai early warning system may be down. This one (http://www.jma.go.jp/...) is from Chiba north of Tokyo and looking at the map it looks like it may (?) be due to a transverse cross-fault near the nuclear power plants being activated (hard to say there are so many). They are new generation light water reactors so even though we have two in serious trouble a Three-Mile Island melt down is unlikely (at least that is what we are told).
3/12/2011, 7:12 PM, PST
No-one has much idea how much this will cost, but replacing the infrastructure alone will cost between 50 to 300 Billion, likely closer to the upper level. If you only take the major nuclear facilities, oil refineries, hospitals, railways, and boat harbors into consideration that alone is likely to top +50 billion US. The clean up effort will take up to 12 months and will be done by defense forces most likely.
According to Goldman Sachs, Japan, less than 2-3% of damages are covered by insurance. The Japanese government prime minister said the government will pay 90% of all costs of rebuilding. Individuals and companies have to come up with the remaining 10% themselves.
3/13/2011, 7:53 PM, PDT
More aftershocks in Tokyo last night, just after midnight, then again at around 6 and again at around 9am. These things are much like vampires, they tend to be more prolific at night.....with most from midnight to 8am.....each night it is the same.....just as you get to sleep another one wakes you up.........they tend to fizzle out after lunch then start up at dusk.......but I guess it is because in the day there is a lot of other background noise and you don't notice the smaller aftershocks as much.
But the ground is moving and buildings swaying even when we have no aftershocks. When you are outside you cannot feel this motion but inside it is constantly moving and you really do not want to shut your eyes as you get dizzy (at least where we are). It is rather like being on a water bed with a 6-year old jumping up & down.
The latest quakes are probably all related to earth quakes in Nagano Prefecture around 100km from Tokyo. Our friends contacted us to let us know they were okay but we got the aftershocks just as the mobile phone earthquake warning buzzer went off so we knew it was close because the quake begun seconds before the alarm. It takes 15 seconds to get the alarm so it means the quake was closer than 13 seconds travel time (so <80km from central Tokyo perhaps). The mobile phones are working now but will be off line if we get any more large quakes.
As far as donations are concerned the Japan Red Cross is safest as they are already on the ground and have been since Friday.
Mizuho Bank also has a direct deposit account set up...or so I am told.
The Australian Save the Children funds is also safe and they are on the ground in Sendai today & running as of this morning.
The Salvation Army in your country is okay as well. As is the bank accounts for the Niigata Appeal & Japan Red Cross on the Japan embassy Canadian website.
I would avoid most other organizations unless you know for sure they are not bogus.
Most large Japanese and foreign companies and banks have set up or are setting up accounts for donations, to be transferred directly to the local Miyagi, Sendai, Nagano, Niigata, or Fukshima etc city councils. My wife is a finance controller and is setting one up for her company Lionbridge (Japan website I think) as we speak. They cut the power to the office in Yokohama this morning and she canceled her trip today to Singapore so she is working from home... (she is on the phone to the bank now) and they will post it on the company website once it is set up.
Personally, I think Japan Red Cross is best because they were on the ground running within hours of the earthquake.
http://www.jrc.or.jp/...