Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/10-13, Ohio voters, Dec. 2010 in parens):
Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 49 (43)
Jon Husted (R): 34 (38)
Undecided: 18 (18)
Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 49 (43)
Jim Jordan (R): 30 (35)
Undecided: 21 (22)
Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 49 (40)
Mary Taylor (R): 30 (38)
Undecided: 21 (22)
Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 48
Josh Mandel (R): 32
Undecided: 21
Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 48
Steve LaTourette (R): 30
Undecided: 22
Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 49
Drew Carey (R): 34
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±4.1%)
Some days, I get out of bed and have to think about which Republican it is I hate the most. Usually, though, I don't, because it just winds up being John Kasich. But today, if Public Policy Polling is right about these numbers, then John Kasich is my new BFF - and Sherrod Brown's, too. I always like seeing a d-bag like Kasich suffer, but when that also helps a great progressive like Brown, well hell, it's a great day for America! Tom notes three key points:
1) There are more undecided Republicans than Democrats, so these mostly no-name GOP candidates have more room to grow—but at 48 or 49 points, Brown is already very close to victory.
2) In December, Brown was tied among independents with his potential opponents. Now he has sizable leads - for instance, 18 points against Lt. Gov. (and former Auditor) Mary Taylor.
3) Similarly, Democrats are coming home. Brown was just 75-15 among members of his own party versus Taylor; now he's 86-3. Brown may not have much crossover appeal, but at this point, neither do the Republicans.
I'll add another observation: PPP asked respondents whom they voted for in 2008. The answer: 49% Obama, 46% McCain. That's very close to Obama's actual four-point margin. While I'd bet that not all of these Obama voters will pull the lever for him a second time, this does demonstrate that the 2012 electorate is looking a hell of a lot more like 2008 than 2010. If that holds, then we might not do too badly.