While the establishment of the UN sponsored No Fly Zone may have taken longer than supporters of military intervention would have liked, President Obama and company have accomplished a major step forward in reconfiguring its message and motives toward the Arab world. As the Sunday morning politicos and pundits wrangled over what should be done about Col. Kaddafi in the long term, they all seem to miss the point of this operation.
As crazy as Kaddafi is, the message of the Libyan mission is being projected far beyond the boundaries of Tripoli. This global intervention should be viewed as a clear and unmistakable warning to autocrats throughout the region. How goes Libya is how things could go for them if should they fail to make serious concessions to their respective citizens in quick order. The cry for Democracy is gathering stream at a historic pace and leaders slow to respond to the seismic shift in this unprecedented regional upheaval will be steamrolled by their own people.
For those in doubt, we'd invite them to look at what is happening in Yemen. Top military brass, having seen the writing on the wall are now throwing their support behind the protesters. Brigadier General Ali Mohsen Saleh, the head of the north western military zone and in charge of the first armored division, said on Monday that he had deployed army units to protect the protesters. Hakim Al Masmari, editor-in-chief of Yemen Post, stated that Monday's army defections spell the end for President Saleh. "It is officially over, now that 60 per cent of the army is allied with the protesters". This development is a significant down payment on a forthcoming peace dividend, if ever there was one. Hence, keeping the pressure on Kaddafi, keeps the pressure on the entire region collectively.
Next stop: Saudi Arabia/Bahrain... These two will have to be handled in tandem, since they have essentially joined forces to stave off the inevitable. Short term analysis will see America's relationship with the Saudis/Bahrainis as complicating forward strategic planning, as this situation could easily devolve into an ugly sectarian fight between Sunnis and Shiites.
However, we think a consistent message of Democracy and Universal Rights for all, will resonate so positively among the next generation of Arab leadership, America can bridge the ideological gap, while leaving extremists without a platform.
When the political bean counters start considering the cost of the Libyan operation, we think the emphasis should be focused on the investment of pushing American values. This is an easy sell when the buyers are willing to die for the product.