Spring has sprung (except at home here in SoCal, where temps have been below normal for a couple of weeks now), and there was a perceptible bump in the political newsmaking over the last week. With that in mind, let's recap the numbers and sample the political headlines from the past seven days.
THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
NATIONAL: On the Obama vs. the GOP front, Democrats are probably most keen on the new numbers out this week from Pew, which gives the President a double-digit edge over that hallowed foe: Generic Republican. Now, if you click the link, you will see that it is worded somewhat differently than this question is normally asked. The Pew crew asked merely if respondents wanted to see "The president re-elected" or whether they "prefer another party." Not naming Obama or the Republicans by name could have had an impact on the numbers somehow, but it is hard to divine who would benefit. It is worth noting, however, that this is the best Obama has done on the generic question in recent memory. It is also worth noting, in a word of caution, that this Pew generic query comes early enough that it has lacked much predictive value in the past (see above).
Pew also is chasing the wide-open GOP primary, and they find what everyone else does: the top four are clearly removed from the also-rans, and they seem to be running in pairs. Romney (21%) and Huckabee (20%) pace the field, with Palin (13%) and Gingrich (11%) the only others in double digits. CNN also hits the house of fun, and they find a slightly tighter field, with Huckabee out front with 19%, and Romney (18%), Gingrich (14%), and Palin (12%) giving chase. For funsies, they include The Donald (who runs fifth at 10%). Gallup takes the GOP temperature, as well. It's the same ole, same ole: Huckabee (19%), Romney (15%), Palin (12%), Gingrich (10%). One thing that makes Gallup's link helpful is a glimpse at the history of this particular ballot test.
As for the Democratic end of the equation, a glance at the job approval numbers for President Obama show little change from last week, taken as a whole. Excluding the trackers by Gallup and the House of Ras, five pollsters looked at the president's numbers this week (PPP/DK/SEIU, ARG(!), CNN, CBS, and YouGov). The average spread on approval came in at 47.8% approval, with 46.0% disapproval. A net positive of +1.8 is almost identical to the previous week, which was +1.3.
THE STATES: As they have done for most of the 2012 cycle to date, PPP is lapping the field in their coverage of the states. They add a pair of offerings this week. A lot of folks (myself included) had been wondering about Michigan, given how awful the state was for Democrats in 2010. PPP finds that, indeed, the president's job approval numbers there are middling (47/45). But they also find the president leading all GOP comers by margins ranging from seven points (virtual home-stater Mitt Romney) to 20 points (Sarah Palin and new entry Scott Walker). Meanwhile, in PPP's home state of North Carolina, southerner Mike Huckabee comes closest to reclaiming the Tar Heel State for the GOP. He ties President Obama at 45%. The remainder of the field trails, by margins ranging from 2 to 11 points. Surprisingly, President Obama's net approval is the same here (+2) as it was in Michigan, a state he carried by 16 points in 2008. Clearly, Michigan's economic difficulties have created a decidedly more cranky electorate.
One other pollster explores 2012: Quinnipiac headed into Ohio. Echoing PPP's numbers last week, the Q poll shows a modest, but real, lead for President Obama in the state when paired with a generic GOP opponent. The margin, according to Q, is seven points (44-37), which falls within the range PPP found when pairing Obama with living, breathing Republicans just last week.
THE RACE FOR THE U.S. SENATE
THE POLLS: PPP was as prolific in Senate polling this week as they were in their presidential polling, adding a pair of polls to the mix. In one sponsored by Daily Kos/SEIU, PPP found that Connecticut voters are liable to replace the unloved Sen. Joe Lieberman with an actual Democrat. Congressman Chris Murphy (who narrowly leads the Democratic primary) or Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz hold leads over all potential Republican challengers, with Murphy holding particularly impressive leads ranging from 15 to 24 points. Meanwhile, in Michigan, PPP finds that cratering support for newly elected GOP Governor Rick Snyder might be impacting the Senate race. Once seriously endangered, PPP's new numbers give Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow double-digit leads over a quarter of potential Republican rivals. One of those potential GOPers, former Congressman Peter Hoekstra, gets more favorable treatment from another pollster, who (surprise!) presumes that 46% of the electorate will be Republican. Since there has not been a single election in the past two decades (according to exit polls) where that has been the case, color that piece of data a bit optimistic.
PPP was not alone is assessing the Senate landscape this week, and two other polls confirm improving news for Democrats in what were viewed to be key races. In Ohio, Quinnipiac echoes PPP's numbers from last week, showing freshman Senator Sherrod Brown well ahead of a generic GOP challenger (45-29). His 16-point edge over a generic foe echoes his job approval numbers (43-27), which seems to indicate that this is about more than just John Kasich poisoning the well for Republicans (although his rapid swoon certainly isn't helping the GOP brand). Meanwhile, in Montana, Senator Jon Tester (D) holds a lead of just a single point over his likely Republican challenger, Congressman Denny Rehberg (46-45). While this isn't exactly something Tester is going to post on his fridge at home, it is an improvement over previous polling, which gave the challenger a modest edge. Meanwhile, the respected Field Poll does a generic re-elect in California for Dianne Feinstein. The nums are a bit ugly (46% re-elect, 42% not), but this does not cover her vis-a-vis Republicans. And if there was a state where Republicans got smooshed in 2010, it was California.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- Florida: In somewhat of a surprise, Congressman Connie Mack will not try to follow in his dad's footsteps and run for the U.S. Senate. As recently as the day before, many in the chattering classes were presuming that his bid was imminent. As David noted Friday, look for this to put third-term Rep. Vern Buchanan in the driver's seat on the GOP side, if he decides to take the plunge.
- New Mexico: A decade removed from a very early (and very unsuccessful) bid for major statewide office, Republican John Sanchez is contemplating making another plunge. Sanchez, now the state's lieutenant governor, sounds very much like a candidate for the open Senate seat being vacated by the retiring Jeff Bingaman. If he decides to follow through, Sanchez will battle former Congresswoman Heather Wilson and hard-right businessman Greg Sowards, who seems to be angling for the support of the basest of the base.
- Virginia: Don't remember seeing his name in a lot of articles when the seat came open, but it looks like there might be a new name on the Democratic side. Longtime Congressman Bobby Scott promises a decision by early summer, but indicated that he is interested. Lest we forget: Scott's ruminations come while Tim Kaine is in the midst of one of the most interminable candidacy dances in recent memory.