The situation in Yemen seems to be reaching a point where various interested parties have concluded that the lid is about to blow off. Every day there are new reports of large demonstrations with people killed and injured in attacks by security forces. Yesterday there were news stories that the Obama administration is pulling back from its position of strong support for the regime of President Saleh. Today come the news that the Gulf Co-operation Councilis attempting to inject itself into the conflict in Yemen.
Yemen protests: fresh clashes in Taiz
Amid continuing violence against the 32-year rule of the president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, the Gulf Co-operation Council, the regional security group, invited government and opposition representatives to talks in Saudi Arabia, at a date yet to be set. Abubakr al-Qirbi, the acting foreign minister after Saleh sacked his government two weeks ago, said the government would agree to talks in Riyadh. "We welcome the GCC invitation and the government is ready to discuss any ideas from our Gulf brothers to solve the crisis," Qirbi said.
Leaders from core political opposition groups, however, said they would only answer when they received details of the proposed talks. Amid mounting diplomatic efforts to end the turmoil that has engulfed Yemen since February, US officials said Washington was increasing the pressure on Saleh to work out a transition plan with the opposition.
The GCC is composed of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar and Bahrain. They are presently engaged in the military intervention in Bahrain and were very vocal in urging the Arab League to support the military intervention in Libya. It seems reasonable to view this as an organization controlled by Saudi Arabia. It also seems clear that the oil rich monarchies of the Arabian Peninsula are not willing to tolerate the threat of instability and chaos in a neighboring state. Any efforts by the Obama administration to alter their position are going to have to deal with strong pressure from Saudi Arabia to guarantee stability. Saudi Arabia also has the ability to bring pressure on its oil customers such as China to cooperate in supporting international interventions.
The Threat of Al-Qaeda in Yemen
Since 9/11 Al-Qaeda has been a shadowy presence in calculations of geopolitical policy. Claims of its influence in Iraq never held up very well. The claims that it remains a significant player in Pakistan are a good bit more plausible. It has been received truth that they have a significant presence in Yemen. This article from the New York Times reflects the strong acceptance by mainstream US media of the veracity of the claims of US intelligence services.
Unrest in Yemen Seen as Opening to Qaeda Branch
Counterterrorism operations in Yemen have ground to a halt, allowing Al Qaeda’s deadliest branch outside of Pakistan to operate more freely inside the country and to increase plotting for possible attacks against Europe and the United States, American diplomats, intelligence analysts and counterterrorism officials say.
In the political tumult surrounding Yemen’s embattled president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, many Yemeni troops have abandoned their posts or have been summoned to the capital, Sana, to help support the tottering government, the officials said. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the group’s affiliate, has stepped in to fill this power vacuum, and Yemeni security forces have come under increased attacks in recent weeks.
Some experts on Yemen who have observed Mr. Saleh’s long domination through political shrewdness speculated that he might be deliberately withdrawing his forces from pursuing Al Qaeda to worsen the sense of crisis and force the Americans to back him, rather than push him toward the exits.
Accurately or not we can be sure that this threat will be widely used to support the position that Yemen poses a clear and present danger to the national security interest of the US and of Yemen's next door neighbor Saudi Arabia. It seems increasingly likely that outside intervention in the political upheavals in Yemen will happen in some form or another.