Eventually, Harry Reid and John Boehner are likely to come up with a deal, either before or after a governmental shutdown. That deal will likely be for a total cut of $33 Billion – much of which has already been agreed to and if there is another one week extention with $12 billion in additional cuts, roughly $11 billion of cuts is all that will ever be made over and above that.
The fact that the Appropriations Committee is fully funding Defense in their extension proposal augers for a desire by the Tea Party to shut the rest of the discretionary government down for some period of time. That will only make Reid and Obama’s hand stronger, however, as the GOP is misreading public sentiment, relying on a skewed Rassmussen poll which undersamples non-Republicans. The GOP members will hear it from the folks back home loud and clear.
If Tea Party members either get or understand a different message, however, they will see the eventual deal as a betrayal. The only question is whether this leads to a palace coup. If Boehner does not go quietly, then there may be a different leadership team in Congress fairly soon, especially if Pelosi and/or Hoyer prefer to have him as speaker or majority leader rather than Cantor as Speaker and Pence as leader. This means that only 25 adult Republicans are needed for Boehner to keep his seat and for the Tea Party to be shunted into the minority.
I am convinced that the impasse is caused by fear that the Tea Party caucus will try something stupid like this. Backing Boehner now defuses their power, assuming that the long term Republicans don't see such a move as meddling. Once it is clear that 25 Republicans back Boehner, all but the most intransigent will join Boehner and any that vote for Pence or Cantor will be out of the majority.
If pressed, I am sure Pence and Bacmann would deny any thoughts of such a bonehead move - however raising the question removes any leverage they have to resist the deal profferred by Reid and Biden and shut down the government.
Of course, if Boehner falls on his sword, it will only goad the GOP into more extremism.
Its time to lay this on the table and move to the next issue.