Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/31-4/3, New Hampshire voters, no trendlines):
John Lynch (D-inc): 57
Jeb Bradley (R): 33
Undecided: 10
John Lynch (D-inc): 57
Ovide Lamontagne (R): 33
Undecided: 10
John Lynch (D-inc): 57
John Stephen (R): 29
Undecided: 14
John Lynch (D-inc): 54
John Sununu (R): 36
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±3.5%)
John Lynch is nobody's idea of a partisan progressive fighter, and we don't even know if he'll seek an unprecedented fifth two-year term, but after last November's utter wipeout in New Hampshire, these numbers have to be heartening to any Democrat. Lynch faced a competitive race from John Stephen in 2010, ultimately winning by eight, so it's pretty remarkable to see Stephen not even cracking 30. The best performance comes from ex-Sen. John Sununu, but at 18 points back and terrible favorables, Bununu doesn't look so hot, either.
The obvious question to ask here is what does PPP's sample look like, since they're showing such a big reversal of fortune. It's 35 D, 29 R and 36 I, which makes it much more Democratic (and much less independent) than the last two exit polls have shown: 29 D, 27 R & 44 I in 2008, and 27 D, 30 R & 43 I in 2010. However (and this is an important however), respondents say they supported Obama in 2008 by a 51-42 score, very close to Obama's actual 9.6% margin.
In a number of states, PPP has been showing a 2012 electorate that's quite similar to the 2008 voter universe, something that's been greeted with some skepticism given what seemed like record-high enthusiasm for Barack Obama last time out. We'll see if history repeats, of course, but PPP nailed things last cycle, and unless and until another pollster (who actually shows their work - I'm looking at you, Quinnipiac) comes along to contradict their work, I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt.