Update: Brookfield mystery solved - I had read her statement that 11,059 new votes had been discovered and mis-interpreted that as being Brookfield only, but she was counting 10,859 Brookfield and 200 from the New Berlin ward.

But a discrepancy still exists: she admits to 3 errors; omitting Brookfield, clerical error in New Berlin ward entering 37 instead of 237 for Prosser, and an adjustment in the town of Lisbon (pop approx 11,000) that DECREASED the totals for both Prosser and Kloppenburg by an undisclosed amount.

Kathy Nickolaus stated in her presser that the totals for both were reduced but the outcome remained the same, Prosser won - but omitted the details of how many votes were adjusted and WHY they were adjusted down? Were they ineligible voters? Double-counted originally? What was it.

So to recap:

Brookfield
10,589 Prosser
3,456 Kloppenburg

New Berlin
+200 for Prosser due to clerical error

Lisbon
Undisclosed amount of votes decreased for both candidates.

So according to her math,
10,859 + 200 - ?? = 11,589
3,456 - ?? = 3,456

Am I missing something this time on the Lisbon discrepancy? If the results she released on Tuesday to the GAB and AP had bad numbers for Lisbon, why were the corrections for Lisbon not reflected in her press conference?  The total amount of "new votes" that were reported, one would assume, would include Brookfield, New Berlin, and the reductions to Lisbon. So where's the numbers from Lisbon?

The OFFICIAL Kloppenburg campaign website is at http://www.kloppenburgforjustice.com/
Click Contribute to donate to recount effort.

Kathy Nickolaus:
- was hired by David Prosser.
- has a well documented history of being accused of voting irregularities.
- the 53% voter turn-out indicated by her "adjusted" election figures would present a historical statistical anomoly (to put it into perspective, only 33% of eligible voters turned out state wide. Exit polling in Brookfield indicated "average" turn-out of 20%-25%, and during the last 4 April elections for hotly-contested Supreme Court seats, voter turn-out did not exceed 24%).
- the +/-7,500 votes represents almost exactly the .05% margin of victory for Prosser that would require the Kloppenburg campaign to pay for the cost of the recount.

If that all passes your smell test, then you should get your nose checked.

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#### Comment Preferences

• ##### What I don't understand, and I haven't(31+ / 0-)

seen anything on, is when this woman is going to submit her resignation.

If indeed this is just a massive f*ck-up, and not outright fraud, then this woman has just screwed up AGAIN, adding to her long history of screwing up.

Why are people not screaming for her to get the hell out of the electoral process?

I blog about my daughter with autism at her website

• ##### Looks like she fabricated votes(5+ / 0-)

How else do you get two different reported totals at separate times?

• ##### In the linked article(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
DrTerwilliker, Lujane
That translated to a city voting turnout of about 53 percent, the city's second-highest for a spring election since 2001, but nowhere near the 79 percent turnout for the gubernatorial race last November.

That seems high.

Take the pledge on Social Security

• ##### We should stop comparing with (8+ / 0-)

Presidential and Gov races, compare it to other spring races:

Compare results from the previous elections:

In the 2009 spring election Waukesha County's percentage of ...total votes cast in the state was 7.491%

In the 2008 Presidential election Waukesha County's percentage of total votes cast in the state was 7.836%

In the 2011 election night results Waukesha County's percentage of total votes cast in the state was 7.472%

These are very consistent results.

Now, do the math after the 'found' votes are added in:
8.439%

www.billwhitefortexas.com Liberals, fighting the conservative way since 1776...

[ Parent ]

• ##### Want to bet there are similar results...(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Lujane, Ducktape

... if you do the same thing with Dane?  This election had an unusual level of turnout but it seemed to be even more concentrated in a few distinct areas.

• ##### I've seen them for normal elections (2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Ducktape, Woody

But please do show me some spring elections it would be great.

www.billwhitefortexas.com Liberals, fighting the conservative way since 1776...

[ Parent ]

• ##### Are the following really comparative #s?(0+ / 0-)

I've been looking for comparisons from this election and one of the "everything-is-finers" posted a link to this:

In the post below, I looked at what the new numbers mean for Waukesha County’s overall turnout picture, and suggested that they actually bring the Waukesha County totals more closely into line with similar nearby counties.

In short, before the “adjustment,” Waukesha County was a big outlier. It showed by far the largest drop-off in turnout between the 2010 race for governor last fall and Tuesday’s judicial race (from about  63% to 37%, for a decline of 26 points). After the adjustment, the drop-off is still one of the biggest in the state (from 63% to 42%), but not freakishly so. The statewide drop-off in turnout rate was 16 points, from 50% to 34%.

But here are some other ways to slice the numbers.

The new figures put the total vote in the city of Brookfield at 14,315. Brookfield has a voting-age population in the 2010 Census of 29,007. (You can find Census data here) So that would make its April 5 turnout equal to 49.4% of voting-age adults.

That number is 15 points higher than the statewide turnout of roughly 34%, but Brookfield is a high-turnout community in a high-turnout county.  Last fall, Brookfield had a rather amazing turnout of 73% of voting-age adults, which was 23 points higher than the statewide turnout of 50% of voting-age adults.

The 49% Brookfield turnout is also higher than the overall turnout in Brookfield's home county, Waukesha, which would equal 42% of voting-age adults using the adjusted returns. That's consistent with what happened last fall, when Brookfield's turnout was about nine points higher than the turnout rate in Waukesha County as a whole.

I'm interested in counties (or cities) that have historically mirrored the one we're looking at.

Taking those counties and then comparing this elections stats to see if anything jumps out.

If you were doing targeting for Prosser, what counties would be grouped together as having similar expectations in support and turnout?

http://www.jsonline.com/...

We'd rather dream the American Dream than fight to live it or to give it to our kids. What a shame. What an awful, awful shame.

[ Parent ]

• ##### The Official Results on the City's Website(11+ / 0-)

...still says 10,859.

I'd be more interested in what total she certified than what she said in her press conference... but it sounds like this woman clearly has some competence issues in her current role.

Too Folk For You

• ##### Yes, the City is reporting 10,859. But she says(5+ / 0-)

11,059. What number she actually reported to the GAB is what we need to find out...

• ##### whaddya mean, "she says 11,059"?(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Lujane

In the press conference, at time stamp 2:46 on the jsonline.com clip, she said that the number is 10,859. She may have said something different somewhere else, but where?

• ##### It was 11,059 "new votes" reported(2+ / 0-)

10,859 from Brookfield and 200 from a New Berlin ward, I had misinterpreted the new votes to mean for Brookfield and not the county. My diary was updated to reflect this and expand upon Lisbon.

• ##### Its like Katherine Harris all over again(7+ / 0-)

Except for the creepy sexual behavior.
Then again, its only Friday.

• ##### exactly!(0+ / 0-)

If one of us is denied civil rights, all of us are denied civil rights.

[ Parent ]

• ##### I am glad to hear she hired the same lawyer (11+ / 0-)

Al Franken used for his election recount. Justice (hopefully) Kloppenburg is accepting donations for her recount effort here.

Sorry, but I'm pimping that link. If you can spare a couple of bucks please throw it in the hat. We need to help her fight.

• ##### Obvious phishing website, posted on another thread(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
ParkRanger

http://www.kloppenburgforjustice.com/
is the official website for the Kloppenburg campaign. They wouldn't put up an unprofessional looking website like the one at completecampaigns.com that just ripped off her campaign website header and used it to create a Credit Card phishing website.

• ##### Are you sure? It's the one posted on her facebook (1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
neroden
• ##### If so I apologize. But the appearance(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Flaming Liberal for Jesus

to me, as a website designer myself, looks like a phishing site. Graphic ripped from her campaign website on a crappily formatted white page with little info. I'd think a recount fund page would be thrugh ActBlue or an actual domain name like recountwaukesha.com or something, not some unheard of site.

• ##### It was also on her twitter page. (1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
neroden
• ##### My mistake, sincerest apologies. n/t(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
litoralis, bobinson
• ##### Their main website is pretty professional(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
litoralis

"They only call it a class war when we fight back." ~Kristina40

[ Parent ]

• ##### Dude, your link takes us to the same place(2+ / 0-)

Click the original link and you get the "unprofessional looking" credit card entry page. When I click on your link, it takes me to the kloppenburg page. If I tap the "contribute" button, it takes me to the exact address you are criticizing.

Maybe they just don't have the money or time to put together an award winning pay page.

"As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly."- Arthur Carlson

[ Parent ]

• ##### And there is your apology(0+ / 0-)

I was too stupid to look downthread.

"As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly."- Arthur Carlson

[ Parent ]

• ##### My Waukesha Co. LiveBlog entries(7+ / 0-)

Times are PST:

`=``=``=`
09:07 PM = 53. Waukesha Co. will move this towards equal, Milwaukie Co. will tip the scale back.
Waukesha Co. might tip 20,000 votes to Prosser yet.

09:32 PM - 59. 3344/3630 precincts - Prosser = 686,541 - Kloppenburg = 686,057
Waukesha Co. 130/198 precincts reporting 81,255 vs. 29,332
This is 66% vote counted.

09:45 PM - 61. WAUKESHA Co. 28.0% shifts down to 26.5%
Waukesha Co. 130/198 precincts reporting: 81,255 vs. 29,332
This is the one anomalous county at this point, with about a 8% difference compared to every other county in Wisconsin shifting blue 6% or more.

09:46 PM - 62. The Republican stronghold is the last to report, with a very anomalous result so far.
O.K., I'm getting suspicious.

09:58 PM - 64. WAUKESHA Co. precinct count is updated, vote remains the same.
Looks like the AP or someone is doing a poor job of synchronizing updates of votes and precincts reporting.
This has been messing up my algorithm. There won't be a bunch more votes tipping to Prosser in this county!

`=``=``=``=`=
Famous last words, eh!

• ##### Thanks for posting those numbers(8+ / 0-)

Besides what you mentioned, the other thing that greatly interests me about them is that there is NOT ONE VOTE added to Kloppenburg's total in the "missing votes".

I understand that this is a heavily R-leaning district, but not one vote?  Really?

• ##### Of the 14,315 "missing" votes....(5+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
NYFM, Clues, Lujane, SeaTurtle, neroden

3,456 went to Kloppenburg.

"Ich bin ein Dachs!"

[ Parent ]

• ##### thanks for the clarifier(2+ / 0-)

It gets confusing trying to pin it down.  5 different sources have said different things.

• ##### Wait, now is this "new total" in addition(2+ / 0-)

to the original 10,+ or a substitution for that which would come close to wiping out Kloppenburg's lead, but still keep things in the mandatory recount.  Both incompetent and stupid.

The thing about democracy, beloveds, is that it is not neat, orderly, or quiet. It requires a certain relish for confusion. Molly Ivins

• ##### Quite a few precincts showed small changes(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Lujane

after the recanvas yesterday, so I'm not sure this necessarily means anything's afoot with the differences you've noticed.

• ##### Obviously the new votes have not yet been "saved"(0+ / 0-)

on their Access program either, though that is troubling because it would seem that the City would need to have them in order to give them to the Little Clerk that Couldn't Count.

We'd rather dream the American Dream than fight to live it or to give it to our kids. What a shame. What an awful, awful shame.

[ Parent ]

• ##### I wonder what the turnout(2+ / 0-)

percentage was before this woman got this job.  It would look fishy if the total turnout all of a sudden was elevated and stayed elevated once she worked with the votes.  Think I'll try to get these stats.

• ##### Give Kathy a break...(7+ / 0-)

She was in a real hurry and very tired. When she juggled the numbers around she just didn't have the time or energy to make them completely plausible.

• ##### She Thought it Was Good enough for Govt Work(0+ / 0-)

Remember, Government Is the Problem.

We'd rather dream the American Dream than fight to live it or to give it to our kids. What a shame. What an awful, awful shame.

[ Parent ]

• ##### If somebody omitted the first digit of 237(4+ / 0-)

the result would be 37. When the error is discovered, the correction would be "exactly 200 voes."

Something like this happened in the Al Franken - Norm Coleman election (US Senate, MN 2008) when Franken got one hundred and something votes in a precinct and the result was written without the 100. When that was corrected, Republicans screamed their heads off about the "mysterious addition of exactly 100 votes" and kept it up long after the tally sheet error was discovered.

For relevant sci-fi and fantasy, go to http://www.betty-cross-author.net/

• ##### Never mind! I completely missed the point(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
neroden

of the New Berlin error.

For relevant sci-fi and fantasy, go to http://www.betty-cross-author.net/

[ Parent ]

• ##### Actually you're kind of right. I missed something(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Kimball Cross

She gave two totals, "new" votes and Brookfield votes. The new votes had New Berlin included. I'm editing my diary to reflect this and expand upon the Lisbon discrepancy.

• ##### Is Brookfield THAT conservative?(2+ / 0-)

I don't know. I'm just asking. If my math is right (doubtful) Kloppenburg got around 23% of the vote. Has Brookfield traditionally been that conservative? Are they the Wyoming of Wisconsin?

Nate Silver on 538 has an analysis of the voter turnout of this county. He says that this corrected number that has come out puts the voter turnout in line with history. I have yet to hear if this new vote tabulation puts the results in line with the voting history. Does Brookfield vote this way?

"As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly."- Arthur Carlson

• ##### Yes. Their city hall GOUGES on permit fees(9+ / 0-)

for traveling merchants. My family sells fruit across the state, and we used to visit Brookfield until the teabaggers at their city hall raised sales permit fees up about 1500% higher than other WI cities and towns. They were trying to balance their balance on the backs of small, local businesses in typical GOP fashion. We stopped going there, and now just visit the surrounding municipalities like New Berlin and West Allis.

• ##### Another Enclave of Rich Republicans(0+ / 0-)

that hate the cow but love the milk.

So they find someone else to provide the hay.

We'd rather dream the American Dream than fight to live it or to give it to our kids. What a shame. What an awful, awful shame.

[ Parent ]

• ##### Some very smart people post of Kos(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
jdld
• ##### I have allergies and(2+ / 0-)

I'm getting over a cold, but this smells bad even to me.

• ##### Stink so strong it can be seen with the naked eye (1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Flaming Liberal for Jesus

nt

We'd rather dream the American Dream than fight to live it or to give it to our kids. What a shame. What an awful, awful shame.

[ Parent ]

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