Official portrait of Barack Obama
Three polls are out in the last two weeks testing President Barack Obama's popularity in the Sunshine State, a prize worth 29 electoral votes in 2010 and one the Republican nominee probably cannot live without.
The results are...well, it depends on the poll. First, let's check approvals:
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?
Public Policy Polling:
Approve: 48
Disapprove: 47
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Quinnipiac:
Approve: 44
Disapprove: 52
(MoE: ±2.9%)
Mason-Dixon:
Approve: 43
Disapprove: 56
(MoE: ±3.5%)
One instructive difference in these three polls are Obama's numbers with independents. While PPP shows him with narrowly positive approval among independents at 48/44, Quinnipiac has him well under water at 38/55, while Mason-Dixon shows him cratering at 34/56 approval.
Naturally, the three pollsters show somewhat different results with Obama pitted against a Republican opponent, too. Quinnipiac polled only against a generic Republican, which is too bad:
Generic Republican (R): 41
Barack Obama (D-inc): 38
Generic Republicans are pretty different from actual Republicans, so that's only sort of instructive. Some silver lining for Obama is that 70% of those polled like him personally.
Meanwhile, both PPP and Mason-Dixon tested Obama against live opponents. From Mason-Dixon:
Mike Huckabee (R): 49
Barack Obama (D-inc): 44
Mitt Romney (R): 48
Barack Obama (D-inc): 43
Barack Obama (D-inc): 51
Sarah Palin (R): 39
Barack Obama (D-inc): 48
Donald Trump (R): 40
PPP, meanwhile, has Obama beating all comers, including Huck and Romney:
Barack Obama (D-inc): 46
Mitt Romney (R): 44
Barack Obama (D-inc): 48
Mike Huckabee (R): 43
Barack Obama (D-inc): 48
Jeb Bush (R): 45
Barack Obama (D-inc): 48
Rudy Giuliani (R): 42
Barack Obama (D-inc): 52
Sarah Palin (R): 39
Barack Obama (D-inc): 50
Newt Gingrich (R): 42
So Obama's either in decent shape or in a moderate amount of trouble, depending on which poll you like.
Huckabee looks less likely to run with each passing day, so the big story is probably Romney's toplines. And the one thing PPP and Mason-Dixon can agree on is that Romney is a serious contender in Florida, while Palin and the more extreme Republicans like Gingrich and Trump are not, at least not yet.
So take this as further evidence that the GOP's best bet is probably to nominate Mitt Romney. On that note, let's all remember that Tuesday marks the 5th anniversary of Romney's Massachusetts health care legislation.
Thanks, Mitt, for helping make health-care reform a reality!