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Gopasaur
Public Policy Polling, as you know, conducts a weekly national poll on behalf of Daily Kos and SEIU. We keep our questions consistent from week-to-week so that we can pick up on longer-term trends. But PPP also regularly conducts their own, in-house national polls, and they'll switch up their questions quite often, offering a great complement to our own surveys. This time, PPP focused on congressional topics, and the numbers are weak for Republicans. Here are a few of the questions they asked (PDF):
Q: If there was an election for Congress today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate from your district?

Democrat: 46
Republican: 41
Not sure: 13

Q: Do you think the Republicans are doing a better job than the Democrats did while in charge of the House of Representatives, a worse job, or is it about the same?

Better job: 36
Worse job: 43
About the same: 19
Not sure: 2

Q: Do you have more faith in Barack Obama or Congressional Republicans to lead the country in the right direction?

Barack Obama: 48
Congressional Republicans: 42
Not sure: 10
(MoE: ±4.3%)

Tom Jensen explains what's happening here:

The key to this strong movement back toward the Democrats right now is the same as the key to the strong movement away from the Democrats last year—fickle independents quickly growing unhappy with the party in power. Exit polls showed independents supporting the GOP by a 19 point margin last year at 56-37. Now only 30% of those voters think that the Republican controlled House is moving things in the right direction, compared to 44% who think things were better with the Democrats. Given those numbers it's not much of a surprise that independents now say they'd vote Democratic for the House by a 42-33 margin if these was an election today, representing a 28 point reversal in a span of just five months.

Tom goes on to conclude that "Republicans taking control of the House may have been one of the best things that could possibly have happened for Obama's reelection prospects." Indeed, despite a still-sucky economy and middling-at-best approval ratings, the extremism of the GOP is helping to keep Obama afloat. I think it'll also have effects downballot, as the 2012 electorate will most definitely not look like the 2010 electorate—but the Republicans will be stuck, of course, running the same candidates who won last year. The GOP: They never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

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Comment Preferences

  •  2012 prediction stands (9+ / 0-)

    Obama wins.
    R's take Senate
    D's take House.

    All kidding aside - it's the f'ing oligarchy, stupid.

    by nightsweat on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:12:06 AM PDT

    •  I still think it depends on gas prices (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, jj32

      They go to 5 and it may look like Repubs win Pres and Senate and Dems win House as incumbents get hit everywhere.

      Hey you, dont tell me theres no hope at all Together we stand, divided we fall.

      by marcvstraianvs on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:14:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  oil is dropping today (3+ / 0-)

        now below $106 a barrel (peak was $113).

        What is happening is that there is PLENTY of oil in the United States and it is speculation that is driving up the prices.

        LATimes predicts that gas prices will be higher Easter Sunday then it will be on July 4th.  LATimes believes that the oil has reached its peak.

        http://www.latimes.com/...

        Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst for the Oil Price Information Service, said that 2011's peak was probably near and that prices can't be sustained at these levels.

        "Fuels are at an excessively high level. They will get a little more excessive, but it will turn soon," Kloza said. "What you pay for fuel on Easter Sunday should be higher than what you will be paying on the July 4th weekend."


        Markos Moulitsas: "Said it before, I'll say it again: Scott Walker is the best thing to happen to Dem activism since George W. Bush."

        by Drdemocrat on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:28:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Gas prices higher in April (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Odysseus

          Than July?  When was the last time that happened...

          I do think that probably 20 bucks of the price per barrel is speculators, and also the fact the dollar is getting pummeled is behind much of the commodity boom.  The thing is though the trickle down effect is already being seen in other areas, esp food prices, and once those go up, are they really ever going to come back down?

          Hey you, dont tell me theres no hope at all Together we stand, divided we fall.

          by marcvstraianvs on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:37:41 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Libya is a big reason for (0+ / 0-)

          the increase in oil prices too. Gaddafhi leaving would cause a pretty steep slide in oil, imo, but doesnt look like that will happen anytime soon.

    •  Taking the Senate (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Involuntary Exile, WORK, gmartini, Matt Z

      is unlikely if Obama wins. Sure, it will be held narrowly, but I can't see a Senate loss with an Obama win.

      People panic too much on this site.

      by thematt523 on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:16:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Check the map (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus, James Allen

        We have way too much to defend this cycle, and in tough states.  We'll do better in 2014.

        All kidding aside - it's the f'ing oligarchy, stupid.

        by nightsweat on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:25:09 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Boy, I don't know (0+ / 0-)

        lot of tough seat defends and very few plum targets... I suppose the TBs might hand us a few gifts again and change that, but I'm not counting on it.

        Lot of time, though.  Would just like a few more target to develop because I think I see somewhere between 3 and 5 Dems going down.

        I guess everyone's got their own blog now.

        by zonk on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:31:35 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I agree (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, Matt Z

          The GOP taking the Senate is a huge possibility, but it is far too early to say whether it will happen.

          People panic too much on this site.

          by thematt523 on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:39:50 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  What we really need (0+ / 0-)

            is for a darkhorse target seat or two materialize.

            A TBer knocking off Snowe (maybe?) or Lugar (I'm still doubting that) would help... so would a strong candidate in AZ or NV.  

            Increasingly, I'm pessimistic about knocking off Scotty Brown.

            Beyond that, it's pretty barren terrain.  Even an '84 size wave in the other direction, and I just can't see the other 5 or 6 seats really being competitive.   Maybe TX if the Dems can field a solid challenger and a weak GOPer emerges from a split field, but I'd want awful long odds before betting on that.

            I guess everyone's got their own blog now.

            by zonk on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:48:14 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Teabaggers could take out Scott Brown (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              drmah, Odysseus, cybersaur

              and if they do, that seat will most likely go dem.

              Lugar is also vulnerable to a primary, as is Snowe, who may not even run again. Both those seats are also potential pickups, especially Maine.

              I personally think dems narrowly hold the senate anyway, but if the nutcases repeat their actions from last year, handing us senate seats in DE, NV, and CO, it may not be so narrow.

              •  Same is true re: Richard Lugar (IN) Tea Baggers (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Davidsfr

                are pushing hard to unseat Lugar in the Primary w. Richard Murdock.  Not really likely since Lugar goes into Primary very, very well funded, but if the last sane Republican in the Senate should fall, Democrats will push hard to turn that seat around in November 2012.

              •  Has there been any polling (0+ / 0-)

                on the IN GOP primary?

                Former Hoosier - in fact, Dick Lugar was the last Republican I voted for at the federal level - and I'm just not believing he's in any serious danger.... Maybe "OK, I ought to take this seriously" danger - but I'd still lay good odds he wins the primary, probably by double digits.

                I guess everyone's got their own blog now.

                by zonk on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 11:20:14 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Crist and Castle looked very safe too (0+ / 0-)

                  and I never thought either of them would be taken out in a primary. Lugar may look safe now but wait until election time.

                  •  I don't think (0+ / 0-)

                    that either Crist or Castle were quite state institutions like Lugar.

                    Crist certainly not - I suppose Castle perhaps a bit more - but then, IN is also a lot more populous than DE.

                    Hey - maybe I'm wrong and it's not like conversations with friends and family still in-state constitute any reasonably meaningful sample, but I just don't get the impression that Lugar can be beaten by simply running hard to his right.

                    I guess everyone's got their own blog now.

                    by zonk on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 11:45:47 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

              •  Even Corker in TN could be teabagged (0+ / 0-)

                and polls there already show the former Dem governor running even with him for the senate seat.

    •  I can see Democrats taking the House in 2012 (7+ / 0-)

      especially if Republicans run on making Medicare into a voucher program.

      Markos Moulitsas: "Said it before, I'll say it again: Scott Walker is the best thing to happen to Dem activism since George W. Bush."

      by Drdemocrat on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:29:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  But if the Demmocrats take the House in 2012, (0+ / 0-)

        given the House predilections now, how will that help ordinary people?  Didn't the headline that preceded this article describe the House Dems as all in on Simpson-Bowles?  Democrats that slit my throat kill me as surely as Republicans that slit my throat.  Really, it doesn't make me feel better being done in by Democrats.

        "The worst that can happen to any group of people working to unseat an existing power base is their failure to imagine the lengths to which those in power will go to keep it." Cognitive Dissonance at Zero Hedge

        by CarolinNJ on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 03:58:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  You may be right (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gmartini, Matt Z, The Caped Composer

      What's entertaining to me is that all I've been hearing from the wingnuts around here is how they "just can't wait until the next election!" because they are so "upset" with President Obama.  This Ryan budget shit may be the goose that laid the golden egg IF democrats only will stick to their guns and capitalize on this, including the POTUS.  He needs to stop this "compromise bullshit" and let the republicans go their way.  He's given them more than enough "rope" so IMO it's about time to let the teabag party finish hanging themselves.

      Mr. Boehner, where are the jobs?

      by Tx LIberal on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:34:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  It is hard for me to (8+ / 0-)

    see any silver lining from Rs taking the House.  So many are suffering because of their policies.  Far fewer caves if no Boehner.

    WWRHD? What Would Robin Hood Do?

    by TomP on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:12:23 AM PDT

    •  That's my current diary (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TomP, gmartini

      The poor lost in the budget negotiations

      In which I highlight the cases where Obama asked for an increase in something that wound up getting cut.

      First example: HIV / AIDS and STD prevention.

      Over and over and over - Obama asked for more help for the poor, and Republicans insisted on less.

      In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra

      by blue aardvark on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:16:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  We have lost the moderating (yes, moderating) (6+ / 0-)

      force of Nancy Pelosi being in a position of power.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:19:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree that in many critical ways, NP was moder- (0+ / 0-)

        ating.  However, much of that "moderation" came in the form of capitulation.  Even so, that beltway pressure cooker has got to be unbearable.  

        An excellent dramatization of just how much political force can be marshaled to advance a bold lie, check out Fair Game, the story of the Valerie Plame affair.

        high entropy is a drug

    •  Destructive isms need to come to a head and burst (0+ / 0-)

      And one of the biggest is thinking everything is ok if you are ok even if all around others are profoundly suffering.  

      That thought form needs to be driven out of our society completely.  Republican attitudes are bringing it to a head.

      "No understanding of the spiritual crisis in the world is possible without clear consideration of causes.
      According to Maitreya, complacency is the root of all evil in the world. What can be summed up as the ‘I’m all right Jack’ mentality leads both individuals and institutions to become estranged from the realities of life, and therefore to ineffective solutions. Complacency is a form of corruption which is not ‘outside’ but inside. The mind itself is potentially constructive or destructive."
      - World Teacher Maitreya through an associate as reported by Share International

  •  Get ready for the typical (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    blue aardvark

    They are slanted towards Democrats, they're not accurate whines from the Republicans....

    Interesting numbers though, just goes to show everyone hates Congress no matter who controls it.

    Hey you, dont tell me theres no hope at all Together we stand, divided we fall.

    by marcvstraianvs on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:12:39 AM PDT

  •  "Independent" (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JTinDC, WORK, rageagnstmach, Delilah

    is code for stubborn, ignorant, and narcissistic.

    OBAMA 2012: PEACE IN OUR TIME

    by Uncle Chigurh on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:13:44 AM PDT

    •  Stubborn? (0+ / 0-)

      I was going to say flighty. They against whoever is cool to hate at the moment. Hopefully not a lot of them hang around here.

      Proud supporter of nuclear power!

      by zegota on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:15:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Way it looks around here (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        YucatanMan

        I'd say there's quite a few more I's who are really disaffected D's this time....much the same way there was a growth in I's who were disaffected R's last time.

        Hey you, dont tell me theres no hope at all Together we stand, divided we fall.

        by marcvstraianvs on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:17:04 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe if they did they'd learn something. (0+ / 0-)

        Ds see human suffering and wonder what they can do to relieve it. Rs see human suffering and wonder how they can profit from it.

        by JTinDC on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:18:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  VOTE against (0+ / 0-)

        Proud supporter of nuclear power!

        by zegota on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:18:51 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  well, I do... (0+ / 0-)

        but I won't make a difference, since - being new to the US- I am not allowed to vote yet. To commit to one of the parties (although I am leaning towards democrats) I simply need to investigate more and experience more of both parties. When the time comes and I will be allowed to vote, i will have made my choice.
        The sad part is just that - for a to me unknown reason - people seem to love to hate each other. Republicans hate Democrats and vice versa and as it looks like, both hate Independents. (as this comment shows)
        But as a matter of fact. I am not very confident in belonging to one of the parties, when it seems as a requirement to hate the others...
        I think it's about time for both parties to realize that it is much more important to work together for the future of America instead of wasting time hating each other. And frankly... I believe it's about time that everyone in this country realized that. You don't have to agree, but at least try to find a compromise to support this country. And a compromise should not leave a loser... JMHO

        •  A ton could be written (0+ / 0-)

          on the issue of compromise. Me, personally, I tend to be a social issues voter; I think economic issues are vague, undefined, and hard to really pin down as "right" or "wrong," so yes, I like seeing compromise (I would have liked to see more spending in the budget, but I supported it given the congress we elected).

          Where I find it hard to compromise are issues like, say, gay or women's rights. To me (and, I assume, the other side) it's all or nothing. Saying "gay civil unions are okay but you can't call each other husband" or "you can get abortions on Monday, Wednesday and Friday, but not on Tuesday, Thursday or the weekend," is a no-go. There's not a lot of room for compromise there.

          So yes, compromise is good, but at the same time, there are going to be legitimate disagreements that we're going to have strong, vocal arguments about, and it's unlikely that there's ever going to be a compromise that diminishes that.

          (P.S. Please don't judge Democrats or progressives by this site. It's kind of gone wacko in the past few months. If you want to get a good idea of the regular liberal headspace, check out a left-leaning-but-not-necessarily-political site like Jezebel or Feministing.)

          Proud supporter of nuclear power!

          by zegota on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:51:54 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Hey! I resemble that remark! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Matt Z

      In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra

      by blue aardvark on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:17:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Whether or not that is true... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Matt Z

      it doesn't help Independents see the advantage of voting for Democrats.

      To the contrary, I think Independents are desperately searching for representation. They flip from supporting one party to the other, hoping that someone will begin to support the middle, working class.  

      Over and over, each party disappoints and so the sliding from one party to the other continues.

      If any party ever figures out that supporting Jobs for the middle and working class and decent trade policies to create work in the USA, the switching back and forth will stop.

      Until then.... the stubborn, ignorant and narcissistic are the politicians in power who refuse to see that their future political success is directly linked to the success of the middle and working class.

      Progress occurs when courageous, skillful leaders seize the opportunity to change things for the better. -- Harry S Truman

      by YucatanMan on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:29:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  In a nutshell (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Southside

      This is precisely why movement progressives are doomed as a movement.

      I guess everyone's got their own blog now.

      by zonk on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:33:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  "independent" is about as large a block (0+ / 0-)

      as "Republican" and "Democrat" combined. People who basically feel neither party really represents them, a portion of which tend to favor R or D.

      What the swing section of them wants is someone actively working in their, or the nation's, interests. They don't get this from one party in an election, they reject them the next. Since we've only the 2 parties, they'll bounce from one election to the next, all they've got is a protest.

      Anyone giving it thought would see there are a number of things which the majority of Americans want, but which aren't even allowed to be discussed in our formal political process.


      Until we break the corporate virtual monopoly on what we hear and see, we keep losing, don't matter what we do.

      by Jim P on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:38:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Independent = low information voters easily swayed (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      cybersaur
  •  I'd say the GOP is doing quite well. (0+ / 0-)

    Obama capitulates to them as a matter of course.

    OBAMA 2012: PEACE IN OUR TIME

    by Uncle Chigurh on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:14:55 AM PDT

    •  Yes (0+ / 0-)

      IMHO, if democrats would FINALLY stand up to the President and the republicans when they come to them this with this crap.  Progressives in the Senate need to stood up to BOTH President Obama and the republicans and we wouldn't see some of this "compromise by capitulation" business we are getting now.
      Where the hell are Tom Harkin, John Kerry, Jay Rockefeller and all those other supposed "liberal" democratic senators?  So far the only one I'm hearing about that is standing up for the left is an independent, Bernie Sanders.

      Mr. Boehner, where are the jobs?

      by Tx LIberal on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:46:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Sucks to be them (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Plubius, Delilah, cybersaur, Matt Z

    Independents have looked into the abyss, and the abyss was wearing a "Don't tread on me" t-shirt and waving a tea bag.

    In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra

    by blue aardvark on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:15:13 AM PDT

  •  I don't see how the (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Delilah, cybersaur, Matt Z

    Republicans can tame the John Birchers, the ones Reagan called the lunatic fringe of the Republican party.  They've always been there, and now they want to run the show.

  •  My god, Indies are dumb. And these idiots (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83, WORK, drmah, Delilah, cybersaur, Matt Z

    decide elections. How pathetic.

    Ds see human suffering and wonder what they can do to relieve it. Rs see human suffering and wonder how they can profit from it.

    by JTinDC on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:16:10 AM PDT

  •  I still can't wrap my head around (0+ / 0-)

    the poll that came out the other day that has an overwhelming majority (around 60% IIRC) of Americans being against raising the debt limit EVEN IF it causes the US to default on its debt obligations, something that has NEVER happened in the entire history of the US going back to 1776 (although I suppose that one could argue that inflationary measures effectively led to the same thing) and which would lead to catastrophic consequences if it happened.

    Perhaps this is one of those areas where most Americans continue to be more conservative than liberal, which can be traced to our "living within our means" Puritan ethic (even though most Americans do not do this personally, and may be projecting their personal failings onto the federal government). But it's almost as if most Americans have gotten so fed up with the way things have been going that they're at the point where they want to "burn the village down to save it", which is about as unconservative a view as I can think of.

    Sigh.

    "Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" --Alexander Hamilton

    by kovie on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:22:59 AM PDT

  •  Since when is one or two points (0+ / 0-)

    past the margin of error "strong"? I would say it's possibly significant, especially if it signals a trend, but it's too early to say "strong." Of course the effects of the cuts haven't been felt yet...we'll see what happens then.

    "All governments lie, but disaster lies in wait for countries whose officials smoke the same hashish they give out." --I.F. Stone

    by Alice in Florida on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:24:47 AM PDT

  •  The remark "fickle independents" (0+ / 0-)

    is a little ... derogatory, I think.

    Independents, as well as a good number of Democrats and the remaining few intelligent Republicans, are hunting everywhere for someone to represent the people.

    If the politicians in power will not represent the people, then they'll vote for those running against those in power.

    IMHO, it has relatively little to do with being "fickle" as it does with the on-going search for politicians to take up the cause of regular working (and non-working in this depression) people.

    Democrats' surest way to stay in power would be to stop their brown-nosing of banks and Wall Street financial firms, capitulating to Republican idiots, and stand up and fight for the working people.

    The lack of that leads to these swings which have been going on for the last 5 years (since 2006 election).  The swings will very likely continue.

    Democrats would have been in a world of trouble if Republicans had swept into office with a huge economic rescue plan and jobs programs for the nation.  But instead, they are captivated by idiotic teabagger BS which is wholly manufactured to serve the wealthy.

    "It's the Economy, stupid!" was never more true. The first party to stop these austerity measures and provide jobs will be the party that stops the biannual swings in the polls.

    Progress occurs when courageous, skillful leaders seize the opportunity to change things for the better. -- Harry S Truman

    by YucatanMan on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:25:04 AM PDT

  •  glad we can (0+ / 0-)

    get the message going!

    A journey of a thousand miles begins with one step

    by uclabruin on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:25:37 AM PDT

  •  PPP is turning out to be a great pollster! (0+ / 0-)

    They are giving us the results we want, and unlike that other crew we had, they at least make their numbers add up. I expect nothing but great things from PPP and their association with us as kossacks and SEIU only adds to their credibility.

  •  How do we lock in Independents (0+ / 0-)

    on the Democratic side, then?

    It seems WH strategists think that what the swing voters want is comity in politics, and laws passed, of whatever quality. No gridlock.

    That might have been true in mid-90s America, but is that really what swing voters of today want? I'd guess instead they want a) jobs, and b) clean up the corruption, c) somebody standing up for the little guy.

    Maybe I'm wrong, put a poll listing the 5 items (1990s/today) would be useful.

    btw, anybody got a link to any of the Democratic Jobs Programs? Or even an address to the public concerning the jobless crisis and what is being done about it?


    Until we break the corporate virtual monopoly on what we hear and see, we keep losing, don't matter what we do.

    by Jim P on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:28:05 AM PDT

  •  Boehner's Strategy Vs Teahadist (0+ / 0-)

    This is an interesting analysis, and I think it also points to the differences in strategy between those from teahadistan and Boehner. Teahadists declared victory, said the president and senate were powerless without the house and they were going to force the agenda. Boehner instead took a more pragmatic approach and said "we control 1/2 of 1/3rd of government".

    Fortunately, we have the loyal tea hounds to drive the agenda in the house, and thus when they say "we drive the debate" and the rather fickle independents see nothing happening, guess who gets the blame? Show me the jobs Republicans.

  •  Until the GOP gets their Guy...I cannot take (0+ / 0-)

    these polls seriously.  What has helped the Democratic Party more than anything this year, and they need in two or three Frank Luntz type talk to frame this issue, is Helping the Working Class.  There has been nothing more galvanizing than Wisconsin, and right now, we should ALL be from Wisconsin to carry their message into 2012.

  •  Jobs, opportunity, and stability (0+ / 0-)

    If a viable candidate can convince voters that he or she has a workable plan to provide an atmosphere more like that of the Clinton Years -  Many "Independent" voters will look behind  "Party" affiliation.

    The remainder of them seem to be fickle. Uninformed. Not paying attention.

    And vote for the best hair, or flip a coin when they pull into the driveway at the polls, or are disappointed that there's not a kazoo-playing Orangutan in a clown-suit on the ballot, or..

    An imbalance between rich and poor is the oldest and most fatal ailment of all republics - Plutarch

    by Anthony Page aka SecondComing on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:28:51 AM PDT

  •  Not encouraging for Dems (0+ / 0-)

    Once the incumbent party comes under attack from the challenger, they always face double digit losses in approval ratings.

    So what foundation do we Dems have to battle back from, say, a 36% approval rating? As the party in power, what ammo do we have to rebuild our credibility?

    What is our record of success, our foundation of accomplishments as incumbents that will help us rebuild our numbers once the GOP attacks?

    High unemployment?

    Low wages?

    Bankruptcies and declining home values?

    Oil wars in 3 different countries?

    Skyrocketing health care costs?

    Higher retirement age, with lower SS benefits?

    Lower Medicare benefits, higher out of pocket costs to seniors?

    We're not as bad as the other guys?

    How do we respond when the inevitable third party challenge surfaces?

    Anyone who thinks the status quo for Dems is good doesn't know jack about politics.

    But there is good news.  Its really, really easy to fix.  Stop governing like Republicans and govern well, putting the best interests of working class Americans first and foremost.  If you can't figure out a way to do that, please step aside.  There are plenty of Democrats who do.

  •  About a completely unrelated matter (0+ / 0-)

    NASA is about to announce where it will locate Endeavor when it's retired after its upcoming last mission. The other three surviving space shuttles will be in Florida, NYC and DC. Dozens of cities have competed for the honor. Not knowing much about which cities those are, I predict that it'll be one of these:

    Houston
    Los Angeles
    San Diego
    Saint Louis
    Huntsville, AL

    Seattle's a long shot, but I doubt it.

    "Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" --Alexander Hamilton

    by kovie on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:32:32 AM PDT

    •  LA got it (0+ / 0-)

      Just announced. St. Louis would have been kind of cool, though. Gateway Arch, Gateway Park, gateway to the old frontier, gateway to the new frontier?

      Oh well. Back to politics...

      "Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" --Alexander Hamilton

      by kovie on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:42:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  How the hell ... ? (0+ / 0-)
    the same as the key to the strong movement away from the Democrats last year—fickle independents quickly growing unhappy with the party in power.

    Excuse me, but since when are the Republicans "the party in power?"   And how have Barack Obama and Harry Reid managed to convince people that they are?

  •  The way to win Indies (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, tuma, Delilah, cybersaur, Matt Z

    is to make a strong case for how Democratic priorities tie in with what they want to see. They are a very fickle bunch of voters so you need an argument that makes sense to your base first and then sell it outside the base.  

    I think Obama's focus on jobs from November until the beginning of March was the right way to go.  I believe he has been sidetracked and distracted by the budget debate.  He should ignore the GOP, and continue to talk about jobs and how his policies will lead to it and the other guys just want to beat up single mothers and children and give tax cuts to the rich.

    If I were advising Obama, I would make a strong budget proposal with progressive ideas (tax increases on the top bracket), and then tie everything to job growth.  The GOP can take it or leave it.  If Obama always talks about jobs and the GOP doesn't (because they don't care) then Obama will win easily and lift all Dems.  If he spends too much time trying to compromise with nut jobs, it won't work for the party or for him.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:41:54 AM PDT

  •  Which republicans? (0+ / 0-)

    the ones that control the House or
    the ones that control the White House?

  •  Good polling numbers won't help (0+ / 0-)

    Get Democrats out to the polls.  Republicans still did a better job in Wisconsin with all that's happening there.  Depressing...

    When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace. Jimi Hendrix

    by Dave B on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:52:11 AM PDT

    •  I disagree, dems did a good job (0+ / 0-)

      is Winsconsin. JoAnne closing a 31 pt gap is 1 month and a half is no mean fit....BTW there would be a subtext in Winsconsin,Ohio in 2012...collective bargaining or not...and with  Obama on the ballot there temprature won't be easy...

      "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." Sinclair Lewis, 1935 --Talk of foresight--

      by tuma on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 11:23:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  This voter volatility sends a signal to me that (0+ / 0-)

    folks are trying to find a party that manifests integrity.  That, it seems to me, is one of the conditions (among many) that spawns new parties.

    Did anyone who checked out the questionnaire note that 63% of the respondents were older than 46 years.  That surprised me.  That's the attack on medicare eating on the body politic.  

  •  I Don't Understand The Independents (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cybersaur, Matt Z

    How can they be that fickle? Is it like one big game to them? I'll support this guy, oops, changed my mind, oops, changed it again.

    This head movie makes my eyes rain.

    by The Lone Apple on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 10:55:30 AM PDT

    •  Indies (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Lone Apple, Matt Z

      Most people just don't pay close attention to politics. Even if they do pay attention, they tend to forget recent history. Then there's the whole problem with the media's obsession with "balance" and "both sides of the debate" and false equivalency. Further, there's a lot of so-called "news" media out there peddling vague and intentionally misleading (or outright false) information. When indies go to the polls they often feel that the current representative just isn't getting the job done. They gave them their chance and nothing good came to fruition so-- their only option is to vote for the other guy...

      Keep Christian mythology out of science class!

      by cybersaur on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 01:32:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Confounding (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Matt Z

        I go to a restaurant and get sick. I go to another restaurant and the food is not prepared to my liking. So I give the place I got sick another chance -- things might turn out better.

        Not the best analogy but it's peppered with snark.

        This head movie makes my eyes rain.

        by The Lone Apple on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 02:18:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Good for indies (0+ / 0-)

    Glad you've come back to the D side. All it takes is a president willing to throw his base under the bus.

    It is better to light one candle than to curse the darkness - Eleanor Roosevelt

    by Fish in Illinois on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 11:04:41 AM PDT

  •  OBAMA IS NO LONGER OR HAS NEVER BEEN A DEMOCRAT (0+ / 0-)

    OBAMA IS SELLING AMERICA AND AMERICANS TO THE OLIGARCHS/­PLUTOCRATS­!

    Bernie Sanders and or Dennis Kucinich and or Alan Grayson and or Oprah and or John Steward MUST announce they are going to run against Obama in the Democratic primary.

    REAL DEMOCRATS need to CHALLENGE Obama’s right wing conservati­ve/teabagg­er politics!

  •  Said same thing way back... (0+ / 0-)

    No one can predict an election 18 months away, but if there is anything remotely going for Obama is the GOP winning 2010. They are over reachers and those independents are quickly souring on them and would be fed up come next yr..

    "...Republicans taking control of the House may have been one of the best things that could possibly have happened for Obama's reelection prospects..."

    "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." Sinclair Lewis, 1935 --Talk of foresight--

    by tuma on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 11:13:31 AM PDT

  •  So Obama adopts EVEN MORE GOP positions (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cybersaur

    http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    I can't stand it. Obama has betrayed the promises he made to us. He claimed he would fight but he's been a complete wimp and doormat.

    I'm an American Liberal. Blogging in between family, work and activism time.

    by AlphaLiberal on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 11:14:26 AM PDT

  •  So now our strategy is (0+ / 0-)

    let the other side win and wait til they fuck up?  Surely we can do better.

  •  WHO THE FUCK ARE THE INDEPENDENTS???? (0+ / 0-)

    Seriously, who are these people?  What's their unemployment rate, income, age, sex, race, education, etc. etc.

    They seem to have become the political equivalent of the ancient Greek gods, who tormented mankind for their amusement.  Many commentators, especially Charlie Cook, seem to fetishize them.  Are they impervioius to persuasion, or just perverse?

    I really want to know.  

    •  They are the disengaged and/or stupid. (0+ / 0-)

      They want the government to simultaneously fix everything and do nothing, spend on everything and collect no taxes, and demand immediate results, or else they will vote you out. They are non-ideological, but deeply uninformed or misinformed about policy issues; what little news they do consume, they probably get from broadcast and cable TV news programs.

      This is in contradistinction to the teabagger followers and the Fox News watchers who, rather than being merely uninformed are actually deeply misinformed, and are very angry about the perceived causes of their problems based on false information.

  •  You know (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    chrismorgan

    one of the biggest problems with this country IMO?

    Independents who simply vote against the party in power nearly every time instead of having any kind of long term vision.

    It results in neither party having the ability to have any extended amount of time to "try out" their policies. Thus we keep getting this pendulum between disparate approaches to social policy and economics.

    Obviously, I feel that our side is the better path but we never get the full opportunity to show it because we are never in power long enough. I'm sure conservatives/republicans probably feel the exact same way.

  •  So this is like 1952, not 1994? Hope so. D's ret (0+ / 0-)

    ook Congress after and held it till '94.

  •  Bad news for Republicans may mean good news for (0+ / 0-)

    Democrats, but it does NOT mean good news for ordinary people.  Let's keep that's in  mind when you're writing headlines.

    "The worst that can happen to any group of people working to unseat an existing power base is their failure to imagine the lengths to which those in power will go to keep it." Cognitive Dissonance at Zero Hedge

    by CarolinNJ on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 03:50:31 PM PDT

  •  Am I dense or what? (0+ / 0-)

    Can someone explain this to me?

    but the Republicans will be stuck, of course, running the same candidates who won last year.

    The community of fools might be small if it were not such an accomplished proselytizer.

    by ZedMont on Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 04:26:59 PM PDT

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