As many of you know, the Republicans took complete control of the state legislature for the first time ever back in November. And with it, they got complete control of redistricting. Although Governor Bev Perdue is a Democrat, she can't veto any new map--a legacy of the days when governors couldn't veto anything period (North Carolina was the last state to give governors the power of veto). Speculation has abounded that the Republicans could use this to squeeze out as many as four Dem incumbents.
This prospect has led me to do something I've only had to do once before in my life--think like a Republican. So here's my guess as to what North Carolina's new map will look like. It assumes two certain Repub pickups, and possibly a third. Follow me below the jump for more. The result--even though the demographics dictate 7-6 either way, it'll likely net a 8-5 or even 9-4 Repub advantage.
NC-01 (northeast--Rocky Mount, Kinston, Wilson, part of Raleigh): Currently held by G. K. Butterfield (D-Wilson). One of two majority-minority districts, it has to pick up over 100,000 people. This could easily be done by moving all of Rocky Mount and Wilson into the district, along with NC-02's share of Raleigh.
NC-02 (east-central--parts of Fayetteville, Triangle suburbs): Currently held by Renee Ellmers (R-Dunn). This could potentially be the biggest coup for the GOP. Cut out its share of Raleigh, and bring in Moore County (Southern Pines) from NC-06 and Chatham County from NC-04. While the old 2nd was one of the few white-majority districts Obama carried, this new district likely would have gone 56 percent or more for McCain--meaning that one of the dimmest bulbs in the Repub class of 2010 likely gets at least two or three more terms in Washington.
NC-03 (east and outer banks--Greenville, Morehead City): Currently held by Walter "Freedom Fries" Jones, Jr. (R-Farmville). Loses its share of Rocky Mount and Wilson, but no other major changes. Still congested red, with no chance of us retaking it when Jones retires (he's 68 now).
NC-04 (east-central--Chapel Hill, Durham, part of Raleigh): Currently held by David Price (D-Chapel Hill): Loses its share of Chatham County, but picks up a good bit of Raleigh. Nearly every Democratic vote in the Triangle gets packed in here.
NC-05 (northwest--Winston-Salem, northwestern Blue Ridge): Currently held by Virginia Foxx (R-Banner Elk): Picks up all of Iredell County, making an already blood-red district even redder.
NC-06 (north-central--Greensboro): Currently held by Howard Coble (R-Greensboro). Picks up all of Rowan County, as well as more of Greensboro. Even with more of Greensboro added in, this makes a solidly Republican district even more Republican.
NC-07 (southeast--Wilmington): Currently held by Mike McIntyre (D-Lumberton). Another major coup. Loses McIntyre's home in Robeson County, as well as most of its share of Fayetteville. Easy Republican pickup.
NC-08 (south-central--Charlotte suburbs, Fayetteville): Currently held by Larry Kissell (D-Biscoe). Pushed a bit to the east--loses its share of Charlotte, picks up more of Fayetteville, as well as Mike McIntyre's home in Robeson County. Sets up an incumbent vs. incumbent matchup, one which likely favors Kissell since this is more his territory. If I really wanted to screw Kissell, instead I'd move western Union County back in from NC-09. However, this isn't very likely (see below).
NC-09 (central--part of Charlotte and suburbs): Currently held by Sue Myrick (R-Charlotte). This district has to shed 100,000 people. Loses most of its share of Gaston County to NC-10. One would think that it would lose some of its share of Union County. However, Myrick is 69, and it's not likely she'll be around for more than two more terms. With Charlotte turning bluer by the minute, this district will likely be very competitive once Myrick retires, and if the Repubs want to have any chance of holding it, they'll leave its share of Union County there as tempting as it might be to ensure Larry Kissell's defeat by shifting it back to NC-08.
NC-10 (west-central--Hickory, Gastonia): Currently held by Patrick McHenry (R-Cherryville). Loses its share of Iredell County, picks up all of Gastonia. Still very much a "God, gays and guns" district. McHenry will likely grow old in this seat.
NC-11 (west--Asheville): Currently held by Heath Shuler (D-Waynesville). No major changes. If this district is to go Republican again, it'll likely be in a similar configuration to the current one.
NC-12 (central--Charlotte to Winston-Salem): Currently held by Mel Watt (D-Charlotte): Picks up most of Kissell's share of Charlotte, loses its share of Rowan County. Most of the Democrats in Charlotte and the Triad are packed in here.
NC-13 (east-central--Raleigh, part of Greensboro): Currently held by Brad Miller (D-Raleigh). Loses its share of Greensboro to NC-06, and a good bit of Raleigh to NC-04. Picks up all of Alamance County. Miller's in a world of hurt here--he'd have a hard time holding onto this district.
All told, from a Democratic perspective, this map is pretty bad, but not as bad as it may seem. Still, the best that we can hope for in this map is a 7-6 deficit (though 8-5 is more likely)--and wait for Myrick to retire.